Forecasters warn that SO FAR’s inconspicuous Atlantic hurricane season is heading towards “pivot points.” This is what you’re expecting.
Hurricane season will be busy, experts say
Dr. Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center, said he anticipated a busy hurricane season and urged people to start preparing.
The Atlantic hurricane map may now be largely blank, but predictors may not last very long as some signs point to increased activity throughout the basin.
“The tropical environment should further encourage hurricane activity in the Atlantic in the coming weeks,” Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Clotzbach said in a July 24 email to USA Today.
WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry agreed to the prediction and told USA Today, “We’re seeing long-range prediction models begin to get better… The deep Atlantic tropical waves coming from Africa are taking a breather this week, and the long-range prediction model on July 24th bumped into the busy August look of the next 15 days.”
Did you start slowly with each season?
So far, there have been three named tropical storms (Andrea, Barry and Chantal), so the number of storms during this period is actually above average. “Currently, we don’t normally have a named storm, but below normal for all other metrics,” Klotzbach said.
One of these metrics is accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), a key measure of hurricane season severity. Ace measures the total wind energy produced by tropical storms and hurricane seasons. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, it measures the intensity and duration of a storm and better shows overall activity than simply counting the number of storms.
By its measurements, this is the slowest start of the Atlantic season since 2009. All three storms that formed were quite weak, causing Chantal to cause fatal flooding in North Carolina.
“Go near the pivot point”
August is likely to get hotter as activity is usually increased.
“Despite a slow start, we’re approaching pivot points in the Atlantic. Hurricanes are not common in June and July. Of course, there are high hurdles to overcome to get there,” said Laurie.
But he said, “It’s not like that in August, September, but the first part of October. These hurdles are much shorter so you can hurry up and get a big hurricane through the right window,” he said.
What will the rest of July look like for development in the Atlantic?
“Things look pretty quiet overall,” University of Miami hurricane scientist Andy Hazelton told USA Today in an email. “Some strong waves are beginning to appear in the Central Atlantic, but for now, dry, sinking air is becoming more difficult. There is another wave (Africa) that could be developed for about a week or so near the Caribbean islands,” he said.
A slow July isn’t uncommon. “The seasons are usually pretty quiet until July,” Klotzbach noted. “On average, over 95% of major hurricane activities remain, but about 93% of the aces still remain. On average, it’s the first hurricane format in the Atlantic on August 11th.”
What are your forecasts for the first few weeks of August?
“As the Madden-Julian oscillating pulse moves across the Pacific into the Atlantic, large-scale conditions should be a little more advantageous, promoting large-scale upward movements and conditions should be more advantageous,” Hazelton said.
“So, in short, July should be over with little fanfare, but we’ll need to monitor the rise in activity in the first and second week of August,” Laurie said.
What is Madden Julian vibration?
What we’re looking at over the next few weeks is the passing of the Madden Julian Vibration or MJO’s upward division. This is not primarily this hurricane season, Raleigh explained to USA Today.
MJO is an eastward migration obstacle of clouds, rain, wind, and pressure to cross tropical planets and return to the initial starting point in an average of 30-60 days. MJO affects tropical cyclone activity in both the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic Basin during the Northern Hemisphere summer.
“As we head towards early August, the Madden-Julian vibration should move to a more favorable stage for hurricane activity in the Atlantic,” Krozbach said. “Usually, phases 1-3 are when the Atlantic actually ramps up,” he said in the latest European model predictions that the MJO moved into phase 1 in the first week of August.
Is there enough water warm enough for a hurricane to develop?
Hurricanes need warm water at 79 degrees, if possible, and water temperatures in key sections of the Atlantic Ocean are beginning to warm up.
“One of the biggest changes I’ve observed over the last few weeks is the substantial warming of the so-called major development areas (MDRs) in the Atlantic, above the seasonal average,” said Laurie. “The water across this pioneering part of the Atlantic, where most of our most powerful hurricanes have got their start, was below average.”
He said that MDR water temperatures have been the seventh warmest in satellite records over the past week (back in 1981), and that at this point in the season it has run slightly cooler than 2017 and 2005. At the same time, he said the water belt just north of the tropical region has cooled since the start of the season, creating a more fostering direction that favors rising air and storms in the tropical Atlantic.
“The central MDR appears to be reasonably prepared for development,” Weather Trader Meteorologist Ryan Maue said in the Substack Post.
What about the dust situation in Saharan? How about Bermuda High?
Swirling dust from Africa’s Sahara desert can affect hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. According to the University of Miami, the Sahara air layer is a dry, hot, dusty mass of air that forms in the Sahara deserts in spring, summer and fall autumn and travels over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean.
“When it comes to dust in the Sahara, this hurricane season was the lowest ever. This could actually be a symptom of a robust tropical wave transporting dust across the Atlantic, but the waves have been noticeably strong over the past week,” Laurie said.
“Dust falls seasonally in August, seasonally in dust. Therefore, with the exception of sporadic outbreaks, Saharan dust is not a major factor in August and September,” he added.
Regarding Bermuda High, a highly pressured region of the Atlantic, Hazelton said, “Whether the stronger Bermuda High that existed this summer (and which brought more moisture to the US that promoted flooding) will suppress more dry air from near Europe and suppress the formation of hurricanes.
A rough hurricane season was still expected
NOAA’s preseason forecasts show that 2025 seasons are expected to have 13-19 names, with 6-10 of which are expected to become hurricanes. The agency’s website emphasizes the importance of being prepared regardless of forecasts for the hurricane season.
