The mid-Atlantic tropical wave is showing signs of organizing as it moves westward toward the Caribbean Sea.
Tracking new tropical waves
AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva appeared live on the AccuWeather Network on Oct. 15 to provide the latest forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and share insights on the newly developing tropical wave off the coast of Africa.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season may have at least one more trick up its sleeve.
A tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic region is showing signs of organizing as it moves westward toward the Caribbean Sea, forecasters announced Oct. 17.
“Concerned individuals in the Caribbean region, from Jamaica to Puerto Rico, should monitor this tropical wave in the coming days,” meteorologist Ryan Maue said in an Oct. 17 Substack post.
If it becomes a tropical storm, it will become the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. She’ll probably be named Melissa.
October hurricane forecast updates
According to a forecast released on the morning of October 17, the National Hurricane Center said, “A tropical wave located in the mid-tropical Atlantic Ocean more than 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. The wave is likely to develop gradually over the next few days as it moves westward at approximately 15 to 20 miles per hour.”
“Regardless of its development, this system is expected to bring heavy rain and strong winds to the Windward Islands late this weekend and move across the Caribbean Sea for much of next week,” the hurricane center said.
Caribbean braces for storm outbreak
Some computer models indicate a tropical cyclone or hurricane will form in the Caribbean next week. “Atmospheric conditions are poised for storms to form in the Caribbean,” AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said in an email to USA TODAY.
“The Caribbean has not been affected by any tropical cyclones or hurricanes so far this season, so the waters are very warm,” DaSilva said. “No major destructive wind shear is expected in the region early next week. This tropical wave could quickly develop into a tropical storm or hurricane next week.”
He added: “Climatologically speaking, there is about 12% of the Atlantic hurricane season remaining, but no one should let their guard down. The return of La Niña conditions could create an atmospheric pattern that is conducive to late-season storms.”
How unusual is it for hurricanes to strike in the United States late in the season?
It is unusual for a hurricane to hit the United States at this time of year.
“In 175 years of hurricane history, only about 12 hurricanes have struck the continental United States since October 22nd, or about once every 15 years,” WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Rowley wrote in a Substack post. “So it’s not that it’s never going to happen, but when it does happen, it’s a once-in-a-blue-moon event.”
But unfortunately for Florida, Lowry said late-season hurricanes that target the United States typically target the Sunshine State.
“Of the more than a dozen hurricanes that have struck the continental United States since October 22, approximately two in three have made landfall in Florida,” he wrote.
Subtropical storm in the North Atlantic?
The hurricane center said a non-tropical storm is located off the coast of the northeastern United States, but “there is a slight chance it will develop subtropical characteristics over the weekend before turning northeastward through colder waters by early next week.”
Lowry said it is currently unlikely to move into the subtropics and is expected to move east over the open ocean and pose no threat to land.
