How will President Trump’s Greenland saga unfold?

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This is an updated version of a story first published in March 2025.

Part of it: The world’s largest island, 80% of which is covered in ice. Danish and Greenlandic leaders say the American people and the president need to understand that Greenland is not for sale. I can’t take that. It’s “our”.

In the other corner is President Donald Trump, who appears determined to use his second term to seize the mineral-rich, strategically located Arctic territory to become the nation’s 51st state.

President Trump said he intends to get Greenland “one way or another,” as he said in a joint address to Congress on March 4, 2025. President Trump has repeatedly said in recent days that he wants to gain control of Greenland from NATO ally Denmark, fresh from overseeing the U.S. military operation that ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power. The White House said Trump was discussing options including the possible use of U.S. troops, a move that would shock the NATO alliance and deepen the rift between Trump and European leaders.

Greenland is part of Denmark. This has been the case since the 18th century. It has its own local government, with a parliament that oversees some internal and civil affairs. Laws related to Greenland’s defense, national security and economy are controlled by policymakers in Copenhagen, more than 3,000 miles away. (The closest U.S. point to Greenland is about 1,600 miles.) President Trump first announced his intention to purchase Greenland in 2019 during his first term.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrault said on January 7 that his country was working with its European partners to consider how to respond if the United States were to respond to the threat of taking over Greenland.

Here are six ways the Greenland story could unfold.

Greenland votes for independence, asks to join US

Greenlanders have been debating for years whether they would be better off living as an independent country, which could happen if a referendum were held, but Denmark has said it would allow it if: sufficient amount The people voted to hold such a vote. Independence from Denmark was also a key issue in a separate parliamentary vote in Greenland last year. However, public opinion polls consistently show that while most Greenlanders want independence, they do so only without losing the standard of living supported by Denmark’s welfare state. And since President Trump’s obsession with Greenland resurfaced, polls have shown that a majority of Greenlanders do not want their island to become part of the United States.

“free” association

Kuno Fenker, a pro-independence Greenland opposition lawmaker who attended Trump’s inauguration, said reports that the Trump administration wanted Greenland to sign the so-called Compact of Free Association had been circulating for years, likely starting with an article co-authored by Trump’s new Arctic Commissioner Thomas Dance in 2024.

In this scenario, the United States would provide essential services, security, and free trade to Greenland in exchange for unrestricted military operations within Greenland’s territory. Fenker said the inspiration for the initiative would be similar to agreements the U.S. has made with Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau. However, Greenland would likely need to vote for independence first. Danish officials and political scientists also point out that the United States already enjoys unhindered military access to Greenland as part of a defense agreement with the Danish government.

President Trump is trying to buy Greenland

Despite Denmark’s repeated insistence that it is not for sale, it is not actually clear how the Trump administration could buy Greenland from Denmark. There is no clear legal or commercial pathway to achieve that.

Yet, by coincidence, the last foreign territory the United States purchased was from Denmark. Purchased the Virgin Islands in 1917 for $25 million. Some subsequent U.S. territorial expansion in the South Pacific was the result of annexations and treaties, according to the Global Policy Forum, a watchdog group.

Wikistrat, a global risk consultancy, said one theoretical scenario for purchasing Greenland would be for the United States to propose a long-term lease of Greenland from Denmark, although this would require an agreement between Greenland and Denmark. This would be similar to what China did with Hong Kong territory when it leased it to Britain for 99 years from 1898 to 1997. In another theoretical scenario, Greenland could give the United States what Wikistrat calls a “minority stake” in its governance, primarily in the areas of security and foreign policy. This means the United States will likely have to take on the roughly $800 million in annual subsidies currently provided by Denmark.

The Wall Street Journal reports that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently told lawmakers that the Trump administration’s goal is to purchase the island from Denmark. Dans and other U.S. government officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

President Trump puts economic pressure on Greenland and Denmark

President Trump has used the threat and imposition of tariffs as a means to achieve his policy goals. He deployed these to Canada, Mexico, and China, the three largest trading partners of the United States. He has imposed tariffs on countries such as the European Union (EU), a 27-nation economic bloc of which Denmark is a member. The US president could significantly increase tariffs on Danish and even EU products to force concessions from Denmark regarding Greenland. Denmark is a major exporter of pharmaceutical products, including insulin. For example, the Danish company Novo Nordisk produces Ozempic, a diabetes drug that helps people lose weight.

International law firm Pillsbury has concluded that President Trump may seek to invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to impose tariffs on imports from Denmark. This law gives the US president broad powers to raise tariffs in the name of US national and economic security. Russia and China have an increasing presence in the Arctic region near Greenland, which holds vast deposits of rare earth minerals, but accessing and processing them will be a logistical challenge. The United States relies on China and other countries for its rare earth needs.

President Trump invades Greenland

A U.S. invasion of Greenland would be far-fetched and could amount to the proverbial nuclear option, but President Trump has not explicitly ruled it out. Such an invasion would, in theory, also invoke NATO Article 5, which states that an attack on one member state is an attack on all members. However, this mutual defense clause is complicated by the fact that Denmark and the United States are both NATO members. It is unclear how that rectangle is enclosed.

Furthermore, in a March speech to Congress, President Trump said he “strongly” supports Greenland’s “right to determine its own future,” suggesting that even if he is willing to persevere with attempts to absorb Greenland into the United States, a military option is unlikely.

A senior European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Trump’s statements on Greenland were contradictory. Rubio said in a January 6 interview with the Wall Street Journal that a U.S. invasion was not imminent.

Danish political scientist Jesper Willein Zeuten said many people in Denmark didn’t pay much attention to Greenland until President Trump started talking about acquiring it. He said the United States is a country that Danes “love for its values ​​and its sports,” but Trump’s comments have soured Danes’ opinion. “He made us want to fight for Greenland,” he said.

Greenlandic Ola Joelsen, a prison official in the island’s capital Nuuk who frequently comments on territory and politics on social media, said on January 6 that her family felt in danger because of President Trump’s threat to take over the island.

“Even more poignant tonight was the question: ‘Should we leave Greenland before it’s too late?'” Joelsen wrote to X.

President Trump’s Greenland aspirations fade

It appears that Trump may lose interest. That nothing dramatic actually happens.

Greenland already has an important US military base called Thule Air Base in the northern part of the island. With permission from Greenland and Denmark, the United States could expand its military presence there by deploying additional troops, upgrading missile defense systems, and building new Arctic infrastructure.

Anne Merrild is a professor at Aalborg University. Her research focuses on the Arctic and its resources. He said that if President Trump’s interest in Greenland is primarily driven by security concerns and gaining control of Greenland’s mineral licenses, “these objectives are likely to be achieved through negotiations between Greenland and the United States without requiring any form of U.S. takeover.”

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