More than 120 people have been killed and at least 160 are still missing after a horrific flood struck central Texas over the weekend of July 4th. Heavy rain, rocky terrain and nearby Gulf climate combined to quickly transform the Guadalupe River into a destructive rapid that runs through Kerr County and Texas Hill Country.
The strip of land that Guadalupe passes through, including Camp Mystic, where at least 27 children and counselors were killed, has earned the nickname “Flash Flood Alley,” and hundreds have died there over the years.
As the search for victims progresses, the questions people are asking are:
Bob Fogerty, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in the Austin/San Antonio office, said it started with moisture from Barry, a tropical storm that drifted through Texas in the first few days of July. So it collided with a higher-level low-pressure system and parked it in place.
Victor Murphy, a recently retired National Weather Service meteorologist in Texas, said the balloons launched by the weather service showed near record water. With the enormous amount of moisture that provided fuel, the wind served as a storm-detonating match.
Alan Gerald, a recently retired storm expert from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told USA Today that several factors have gathered in one of the worst possible flood locations to create a “terrifying” scenario where up to 16 inches of rain falls in a large area from July 3 to July 5.
Data from Floodbase, a flood tracking company, shows how the floods have passed through the basin for days and then brought death and destruction.
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On early July 4th, the Guadalupe River in Carville flowed at three cubic feet per second. At that rate, you fill the Olympic-sized pool in 8 hours. However, immediately after 7:30am, it was gushing at 134,000 cubic feet per second, so the rate filled the same pool in under a second.
The river height has skyrocketed from under 12 inches to over 34 feet. This is the biggest record there since record keeping began in 1997.
That discharge is the second highest ever recorded by the Stream Monitor, with data dating back to mid-1986. However, no data has been released from peak times between 6:15am and 7:30am – the event was so extreme that hydrologists at the US Geological Survey are still reviewing it. Kerrville is on the list of sites where crews perform what is called indirect measurements based on the high water mark, according to the USGS.
According to Gerald and Murphy, terrain and timing were the biggest factors behind the storm. “We are pleased to announce that we are committed to providing a range of services to our customers,” said Dan Depodwin, Vice President of Forecast Business at Accuweather.
“The reason is the jetstream, a river of air that travels so fast that planes can fly, moving north in the summer,” Depodwin said. And because it is close to the bay, the area gains “very high rainfall rates”.
Geology is another important factor that has earned its nickname. Hatim Sharif, a hydrologist and civil engineer at the University of Texas in San Antonio, says Balconz Escarpment runs roughly parallel to Interstate 35 by a line of cliffs and steep hills created by geological faults.
Hill Country is “a semi-arid region with soil that doesn’t absorb much water, so the slabs can disappear quickly and shallow streams can rise rapidly,” Sharif says. Public Radio in Texas reports that limestone in the area prevents rainwater from immersing in the ground. Instead, the water plunges into the valley.
All of these factors were present in Camp Mystic. “Topography is complex or diverse,” Depodwin says. “So, in this case, in the river and river basin, you get water channeling right away in a small area. It obviously flows somewhere, in this case, downhill and towards the camp.”
Camp Mystic is a 700-acre private Christian summer camp for girls about six miles south of the Hunting Town in Kerr County. It is Texas Hill Country, a 11 million acre area in central Texas. Located between the banks of the Guadalupe River and its Cypress Creek tributaries, the camp had just begun its one-month term for hundreds of girls.
The original camp sat along the Guadalupe River, and in 2020 a nearby second camp opened near Lake Cypress. The camp is divided by Cypress Creek. Among the 160 people who are missing in the floods are five campervans and a camp mystic counselor.
Many of the camp structures reside within flood hazard areas defined by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and new buildings have been constructed within these boundaries for many years.
For 30 years in the course, these areas could be cumulative flooding of 26%. Some are located in areas known as regulated flood channels, and must block anything that is blocked for water so that it can move freely during flooding.
The camp lost power early on July 4th as heavy rain knocked out electricity. At least 27 campers, an eight-year-old young camper, were swept away by the raging seas. According to the Washington Post, many of the shed girls known as the Bubble Inn have been lost. The reported posts are reported to have entered from two directions from the South Fork of the Guadalupe River and a nearby stream.
The camp has a renowned history in the state and hosts girls of some of Texas’ most famous politicians. Around 700 children were in camp when the flood hit, Texas Lt. Colonel Dan Patrick said.
Scott Laskan, a platoon officer with the US Coast Guard, is the third class of aviation survival engineers stationed in Corpus Christi, saving 165 people from rising floods in Kerr County.
The crew of the MH-65 Dolphin helicopter and the crew of the HC-144 Ocean Sentry aircraft were launched along with the crew of the Aviation Administration’s Houston MH-65 Dolphin helicopter, along with the crew of the Aviation Administration’s Houston MH-65 Dolphin helicopter, the Coast Guard said.
The Coast Guard has implemented 12 flights to the area and rescued 15 campers from Camp Mystic, security guards said. The Texas Army and the Air National Guard rescued at least 525 people from flooded areas, the Texas National Guard reported.
More than 360 people were evacuated by UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters, according to security guards. Another 159 people were rescued to the land.
A similar tragedy known as the Guadalupe River flooding struck Camp Mystic in July 1987. A teenager died and 33 people were injured when buses and vans carrying evacuees were left behind in the flood.
According to the National Weather Service, “rapid water rise in water along streams or lowland urban areas” is the major storm-related killer in the United States. why? “Most people don’t recognize the power of water,” the Meteorological Bureau says.
A rapid moving 6 inches of water can step in. According to Weather.com, water flowing at just 6 mph gives the same force per unit area as air blows at wind speeds in an EF-5 tornado. Water moving at 25 mph has the equivalent pressure to wind blowing at 790 mph, which is faster than the speed of sound.
According to a data analysis from USA Today, a fifth of all direct deaths in the United States from 1996 to 2024 were in Texas for the entire year from 1996 to 2024. These are the states with the highest number of deaths out of 1,923 deaths.
Texas reported 68 direct deaths from flash floods in 2017. This has made 2025 the most fatal flash flood deaths in recent decades.
Of the 120 deaths of the July 4th storm, 96 were in Kerr County. It includes at least 36 children, USA Today reported. Counties of reported deaths:
- Carr County: 96
- Kendall County: 8
- Travis County: 7
- Burnet County: 5
- Williamson County: 3
- Tom Green County: 1
Ten states from Massachusetts to California have dispatched specially trained teams, including Swift-Water Rescue Crews and trained FEMA staff, to help with recovery.
County officials said hopes to find survivors on July 10th had diminished. Authorities said they have not been “live rescues” since the day of the flood. Gov. Governor Greg Abbott declared disasters in 15 Texas Counties.
Since the floods, many have wondered what has been possible to alleviate the loss of life. The timing of alerts and the lack of sirens is under scrutiny. The report shows that the state’s Emergency Management Department rejected Kerr County’s request 10 years ago and rejected a $1 million grant to improve its flood warning system.
But sirens and alerts are just part of a layered approach to flood warning and mitigation, Depodwin told USA Today.
“A question that needs to be answered is how can people receive warnings? What kind of actions have been taken by local emergency managers, local officials, event organizers, and did not speak?
Contributors: Janet Loafke, Shail Butt, Doyle Rice, Dina Boyless Palber, Rick Jarvis, Eduardo Quebas, Kathryn Palmer.
Source: USA Today Network Reporting and Research;Reuters;National Weather Services; Accuweather; floodbase.com;Nearmap;FEMA;First Street.
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This is a developing story that could be updated.
