Anchorage, Alaska
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Alaska is unlikely to take part in many people’s bingo cards as the venue for a major summit between US leaders and Russia.
But the largest and largest state in America is where President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are currently set to meet one of their president’s most potentially consequential encounters.
That’s certainly a view from Moscow, and Prokremlin propagandists have already been washed away in anticipation of the benefits this much-anticipated in-person meeting offers.
Or, more specifically, it will be delivered to Putin.
First, the fact that there is absolutely no summit meeting with the US president is a big victory for the Kremlin.
“No one is talking about Russia’s international isolation or our strategic defeat.” Alexander Cott, a prominent Pro Kremlin Army blogger who is well known for his popular social media channels, writes. He added that the Alaska conference “had a chance to be historic.”
He may be right. The presidential summit will allow Putin to return to the top table of international diplomacy, but he will protect his nose, offering his respect for him and wanting to avoid him if he is not arrested on suspicion of war crimes in Ukraine.
And the summits all over the US Alaska are red meat of a resurrected Russian nationalist who still tells them that the territory is justly theirs.
From the Chukotka region of the Russian Far East, across the Bering Strait, Alaska was once remotely owned by the Russian Empire, and was sold to the United States in 1867, and still, for a measly sum of $7.2 million, for about two cents.
The idea that Moscow still leaves behind a live deal and visits to “Our Alaska”, one of the television hosts in Russia’s prominent states evokes it and bolsters Putin’s nationalist credentials. A video clip of Trump at a White House press conference before the summit has been headed to Russian social media with the caption that the US president has finally “confirmed it is ours” saying he is going to “Russia” to meet Putin.
But for other parts of the world, the sole focus of this Presidential Summit will be on the war in Ukraine, whether Russia is ready to make concessions to end it. The White House said it hopes Trump will focus head-on on ending the war in Ukraine, leaving behind other issues that Moscow said are going up for discussion at another time.
On Wednesday, Trump promised “very harsh consequences” if Putin doesn’t agree to end the war.
But so far there have been few signs of a real compromise from the Kremlin. The Kremlin considers itself to have an advantage on the shattered battlefield of Ugolaina. In a call with Trump, as last month, Putin reportedly repeated that Russia would “continue to pursue its goals to address the underlying causes of the Ukraine conflict.” These “root causes” include the longstanding Russian dissatisfaction, including its former existence as a sovereign state in Ukraine, and the expansion of NATO to the east since the end of the Cold War. On Wednesday, a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry said the country’s position on Ukraine “will not change.”
Perhaps Putin has become something else.
Before the Alaska summit was rushed to be arranged, details of the Russian offer of peace, reportedly made to the US president’s envoy, Steve Witkov, have been revealed. Essentially, the proposal includes the Kiev surrender area in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine in exchange for a ceasefire, an idea firmly excluded by Ukrainian leaders.
“I have no right to do so, so I am not going to surrender my country,” Zelensky said before the summit where he was not invited. “Today, if we leave the Donbass, the fortress, the terrain, the heights we control, we will clearly open the bridgehead in preparation for the Russian attack.”
But Trump, who is expected to discuss ideas with Alaska President Putin, appears to like the sound of land contracts on land, even something very uncomfortable for Ukraine and its European partners.
That clear difference in opinion represents the opportunity for Putin to portray Ukrainians and Europeans rather than Russia as real obstacles to peace, which could undermine Trump’s already unstable support for Ukrainian war efforts. Trump has lost his patience with Zelensky before, the Kremlin would have pointed out, and may again do so. If he cuts off the remaining US aid and information sharing with Kiev, Ukraine will have a hard time continuing its fight, even if European support is strengthened.
Prior to the summit, the White House appears to be underestimating expectations for a peace agreement, characterizing the High Stakes Conference as a “listening exercise.”
That might work for Putin.
After all, according to the White House, it was the Kremlin who recruited the summit. Perhaps as a way to head towards the threat of US tariffs and secondary sanctions Trump said he would kick last week. Continuing Trump’s story might be an effective way to push that deadline back indefinitely.
More broadly, Putin will fundamentally reset his ties with Washington with a unique opportunity, separate his ties with Russia from the United States, and separate his fate from Ukraine’s destiny.
For months, Kremlin officials have spoken about the potential economic, technical and space cooperation with the United States, as well as lucrative transactions regarding infrastructure and energy in the Arctic and other regions.
The fact that Kremlin’s top economic envoy, Kiril Dmitriev (an important conversation with the Trump administration), is part of Russia’s delegation to Alaska, suggests that more talk of the US-Russia deal will be on the agenda.
And if Putin went his own way at this summit, he may find that the “Ukrainian Question” is relegated to only one of the many topics among the powerful ones Leaders of two great powers – and not even the most pressing.
