Heavy rain forecast for flash floods in northeastern New Jersey

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It may feel like it’s moving quickly from pans in parts of New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania to the pool this week as high temperatures give way to heavy rain and potential flash flooding.

Record daily temperatures were set in Atlantic City, New Jersey (99 degrees) and Atlantic City (97) on July 30th, but the heat index (where heat was felt) reached triple digits in some regions. However, as the heat continued in the evening, the service began posting flood clocks.

By the afternoon of July 31, more than 50 million people in the area are expected to be under flood monitoring. State and local officials warned local residents to prepare in advance for potential flooding.

Parts of central and western New Jersey can see more than four inches of rain in a short period of time, with rain falling at speeds of more than two inches per hour, leading to flash flooding, the weather department said.

“During periods of moderate to local heavy rain on Thursday afternoons and Thursday nights, the front boundary remains south of the region, with low-pressure waves moving along the front line, which gives us confidence,” said the July 30 forecast discussion from Weather Services.

“On Thursday afternoon and evening, there will likely be axes of repetitive heavy rainfall and buried thunderstorms,” the Meteorological Bureau said. The entire region is under the prospect of excessive rainfall. The slower risk of rain is predicted in New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and Maryland, lowering the risk of excessive rain from northern and eastern Virginia to Massachusetts.

Most of the rain is expected to drop in just 3-6 hours. The slight possibility of heavy rain and flooding can significantly disrupt “an increasing threat to life and the first floors of transportation, underground infrastructure and basements, homes and businesses.”

Travel warnings have been urged

“We’re preparing for a serious storm tomorrow evening,” New York Mayor Eric Adams told X on July 30. “The roads could be flooded during the evening commute,” the city warned.

“We’ll set up flood prevention tools early,” Adams’ office warned in X-Post. “If you live underground, be prepared to move to the highlands.”

Individuals in the area should “have a few reliable ways to get flood-related clocks and warnings at all times,” Accuweather said on July 30.

“Roads that appear to be running a small amount of water across them can be fooled, especially on nights when visibility is low,” warned Alex Sosnowski, senior meteorologist at Acuweather. “From 1 foot of movement to 6 inches, a small vehicle is pushed in. With 1-2 feet of water, a larger SUV can float. At the very least, the vehicle can maintain serious water damage.”

Homeland security and emergency in New York has urged residents to register for emergency and weather warnings by texting 333111 to the county or borough.

“As our predictions turn from extreme heat to heavy rain, I am urging all New Yorkers to be vigilant and watchful until the end of this week,” Gov. Kathy Hochul said in a news release. “State agencies are on standby due to severe downpours and localized flooding, and will monitor the situation in real time to ensure the safety of all New Yorkers on the stormy path.”

What is your biggest chance of heavy rain?

The exact location where the front stall will become crucial in the heaviest rainfall, the weather department said. For now, the best chance is only southwest of New York City and New Jersey metro areas, weather services warned, but shifts northward bring the largest potential rain area closer to the city.

As recent floods in Texas Hill Country have shown, forecasts often struggle to determine the exact location where weather systems interact with each other in the atmosphere above the region and drop the largest amount of rainfall. This is a challenge we have been working on solving computer predictive models.

As of 8pm on July 30th, the most likely chance of rain over 4 inches until August 2nd was in the following location:

  • Hollymount, New Jersey – 34%
  • King of Prussia, Pennsylvania – 31%
  • Westchester, Pennsylvania – 24%
  • Trenton, New Jersey – 22%
  • West Milford, New Jersey – 10%

The biggest chances of rain over 3 inches are:

  • Trenton, New Jersey – 53%
  • Westchester, Pennsylvania – 43%
  • Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania – 34%
  • Doylestown, Pennsylvania – 33%
  • West Milford, New Jersey – 33%
  • New York City – 21%
  • Girder straw, new -27%
  • Shaman, Connecticut – 20%

How long will the rain last?

Conditions begin improving on August 1st and are expected to return to normal.

USA Today’s national correspondent, Dinah Voyles Pulver, writes about climate change, violent weather and other news. Contact her at dpulver @usatoday.com or @dinahvp.

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