Is there a possibility of early spring? Or is there more winter in the forecast? Here’s what meteorologists are saying in their Groundhog Day forecast:
New study ranks groundhogs by weather prediction accuracy
A new study from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ranks the most accurate weather-predicting groundhogs, and the results may surprise many.
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Groundhog Day 2026 has arrived, and the eyes of the world are focused on Punxsutawney Phil’s prophecy (he sees his own shadow on Monday, February 2nd, predicting there will be six more weeks of winter).
But what do real weather forecasters say?
Professional weather forecasters say the eastern half of the country is likely to experience a very cold February, while the west will see generally mild to warm weather for the time being. So if you’re looking for early spring, head west.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Americans should remember that Groundhog Day is just mid-winter fun, and that according to climate records, winter is probably not over.
Climatically, the coldest three months of the year are December, January, and February (the “climatic winter”), so winter is usually still in place by the time groundhogs emerge on February 2nd.
Polar vortex hits eastern and central US
People who have been looking forward to spring will not be happy to hear this. “The polar vortex could bring another round of bitter cold to the central and eastern United States around mid-February,” according to an online forecast from AccuWeather long-range expert Paul Pastelok. This will also include the possibility of snow, he said.
DTN meteorologist John Baranick agreed, saying, “The weather pattern is shaping up to bring arctic air back first to the eastern United States next weekend, approximately February 6th to 9th, and then eventually to the central United States the following week.”
“We are also looking at the possibility of major storms and winter is not over yet,” he said in an online forecast.
Where can spring come early?
“It depends!” NOAA Climate Prediction Center meteorologist Johnna Infanti said in an email to USA TODAY. Overall, the forecast looks like it will continue to be cold in the east and warm in the west.
“For example, the early to mid-February outlook calls for below-normal temperatures across many parts of the East. Additionally, the 8- to 14-day hazardous outlook calls for several days in February to be very cold for some parts of the Northeast.”
Additionally, a new map (below) released on January 30 shows that below-normal temperatures are expected to persist across the eastern United States during the last two weeks of February.
However, the West is likely to experience above-average temperatures through much of February, with the warmth concentrated in the Southwest by the end of the month.
What about rain or snow? And is La Niña still having an impact?
There is a chance of heavy snowfall in northern parts of the United States in February. “Above-normal precipitation is expected in the northern Rockies, northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and interior Northeast, in contrast to below-normal precipitation in the southern tier,” Infanti said.
He said the La Niña weather pattern continues to influence the weather in the United States. “This is a fairly typical La Niña pattern in both temperature and precipitation, and we expect some of the seasonal effects of La Niña to continue into next month and next season.”
