AccuWeather’s first hurricane season outlook says the number of storms may not be large, but warm water temperatures could pose a surprising hazard.
What are the chances of a Super El Niño occurring this year?
Forecasters predict that El Niño could replace La Niña by late summer 2026, potentially changing the shape of the hurricane season. But what does that actually mean?
Early hurricane season forecasts are beginning to emerge and will continue to be forecast over the coming weeks, with the Atlantic hurricane season opening on June 1st, 68 days away.
AccuWeather, a private weather company, released its seasonal outlook on March 25th. Forecasts are expected to be released soon by a research team at Colorado State University, usually in early April, by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in late May, and by a number of other agencies.
There is growing confidence that a strong El Niño will develop into the summer, and forecasts are expected to take into account the dampening effect that Pacific weather patterns may have on storms in the Atlantic basin. However, some of the most destructive hurricanes in the United States have entered the continental United States during El Niño events. Remember Hurricane Michael in 2018 or Hurricane Andrew in 1992?
Similar preparations are recommended every year for the average person living within a hurricane’s reach, regardless of the seasonal outlook. Hurricanes like Hurricane Helen also point to the path of hurricanes whose impacts could reach deeper inland and be far more devastating than many imagine.
Craig Fugate, a former FEMA administrator and former Florida Emergency Management Agency director, said seasonal forecasts “were never designed to tell families whether their homes would be affected.” “When people hear, “El Niño will suppress activity,” or “the season is below average,” they interpret that to mean, “It’s probably safe.” History says otherwise.
“Seasonal forecasts tell you how crowded the oceans are. Hazards tell you where the storms are going,” Fugate says. “The numbers may change due to El Niño, but the risks remain the same. Prepare the same thing every year. You only need to do it once.”
For example, the 1992 season had only seven named storms, including Andrew, one of the most destructive U.S. hurricanes on record.
What are AccuWeather’s hurricane predictions for 2026?
AccuWeather’s forecast warns that the two main concerns this hurricane season are warm ocean waters and rapid intensification of storms near the U.S. coast. However, when an El Niño occurs in the Pacific Ocean, tropical activity can drop to near or below historical averages as the season progresses.
An outlook from a team at private weather firm AccuWeather, released March 25, predicts the season could be close to or below historical averages. Predictions include:
- 11 to 16 named storms
- 4-7 hurricanes
- 2-4 major hurricanes (category 3 or higher)
- 3-5 Direct Impacts on the United States
According to AccuWeather, the northern and eastern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas are at higher-than-average risk of a direct hit this season, but south-central Texas may be at lower-than-average risk.
The average number of named storms in the Atlantic over the past 30 years is 14. AccuWeather predicts a 40% chance of 14 or more named storms and a 15% chance of 16 or more in 2026.
Alex DaSilva, the company’s chief hurricane expert, emphasized the need for preparedness. “It’s critical that everyone from South Texas to Maine prepare equally for each hurricane season, regardless of the forecast,” DaSilva said.
Will El Niño affect hurricane season?
When El Niño occurs along the equator of the Pacific Ocean, trade winds over the Pacific Ocean tend to weaken. This tends to increase updrafts and bring down shear winds over the Atlantic Ocean, potentially destroying the tropical cyclone’s structure.
But it can’t eliminate hurricanes or protect against impacts, “especially in the Gulf region,” Fugate said. “Gulf countries play by different rules.”
“Once a system enters the Gulf, local conditions become much more important than seasonal signals,” he said. And with shorter timelines, “we could go from a tropical cyclone to a major hurricane that’s about to make landfall faster than people can adapt.”
‘Unusually warm’ seawater raises concerns about hurricane season
Warm water is an essential element in hurricanes and helps promote rapid intensification of the storm. Sea surface temperatures are already warmer than normal in parts of the Atlantic Basin and are expected to “reach unusually high levels again this summer,” DaSilva said.
As a result, storms that form closer to the coast may pose a greater threat, giving people less time to respond and potentially increasing the likelihood of preseason or early season storms, he said.
The spread of orange and yellow on the sea surface temperature map is “a very concerning trend as we prepare for hurricane season,” DaSilva said. If this pattern continues with water temperatures above historical averages, it is a recipe for rapid intensification.
The same thing happened with Hurricane Michael. Maximum sustained wind speeds rapidly increased from 115 mph to 160 mph within 24 hours.
Looking back at the 2025 season
2025 marked the first time in 10 years that no hurricanes made landfall in the continental United States, but the season did see three strong Category 5 hurricanes. The storms included Hurricane Melissa, whose name was recently retired as it affected Jamaica and the entire Caribbean. At least 95 people died.
This season had 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes with wind speeds of 111 miles per hour or higher.
Storm names for the 2026 hurricane season
Below is a list of the names and pronunciations of the tropical cyclones and hurricanes that will occur this summer. Not all letters of the alphabet are used.
Wilfred – WILL-fred
Arthur – AR-thur
Bata – BUR sitting
Cristobal – krees-TOH-bahl
Dolly – DAH-lee
Edouard – Eh, DWARD
Faye – Faye
Gonzalo – gohn-SAH-loh
Hannah – Uh-huh.
Isaiah – Yeah, oh, yeah, oh
Josephine – Jo Ce Fine
Kyle – KY-ull
Rear – Lee, Ah
Marco – MAR-you
Look – NA-na
Omar – Omar
Paulette – pawl-LET
Rene – Re NAY
Sally – SAL-ee
Teddy – TEHD-ee
Vicky – HIV positive
Dinah Boyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about violent weather, climate change and other news. Contact dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or dinahvp.77 on X or Signal.
