Forecasters should be aware of the unusual lull before hurricane season: what is it now?

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  • Tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere have not formed as of May 16th in 2025. This phenomenon has only been seen five times since 1950.
  • The unusual wind patterns near the Philippines suppress the formation of storms in the western North Pacific.
  • In contrast, the Southern Hemisphere experiences busier than average storm seasons.

An unusual pattern appeared ahead of the Atlantic hurricane season. No tropical cyclone formed anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere in 2025 on May 16th.

This includes all tropical storms, hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones located north of the Atlantic, Pacific, and the equator of the Indian Sea.

Dried spells are not unprecedented. In fact, something similar happened last year ahead of the devastating hurricane season in the United States.

According to Colorado State Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach, in the past 75 years, slow start coincided with five times in the past 75 years (1973, 1983, 1984, 1998 and 2024). Most of these years ended with sub-average seasons throughout the Northern Hemisphere.

On average, he said that a 3.5 storm would usually form now.

Is this quiet stretch rare?

Typically, the Atlantic, the eastern North Pacific and the North Indian Ocean are fairly quiet until mid-May, Krozbach said.

“So the western North Pacific tends to be a major contributor to the storm’s activities that were nominated this year,” he told USA Today.

The quiet thing in the Western Pacific is due to the unusual wind patterns near the Philippines. “This wind pattern creates an antibacterial flow, which does not support the formation of a storm,” he said.

Does this mean anything for the rest of the season?

Klotzbach said it’s difficult to say that. “For example, the average number of Northern Hemispheres, named Seasonal Storms, is 62. This is the last Northern Hemisphere named Storms for other years that are not named Storms until May 16th.

  • 1973-45
  • 1983-51
  • 1984-65
  • 1998-53
  • 2024-58

“Four of the five years were named storms in the sub-average Northern Hemisphere, but in 2024 it was slightly normal,” he said.

1973 was a very quiet year for the storms in the Northern Hemisphere. That year set the latest First Storm record, Krozbach said:

What about storms in the Southern Hemisphere?

Unlike the Northern Hemisphere, the Southern Hemisphere was extremely busy during the 2024-25 season (July 1, 2024 – now).

Storms in the Southern Hemisphere include those that threaten places such as Australia.

He said that storms named 31 Southern Hemisphere have been formed so far, while the average is 25 storms until May 16th.

What are the remaining forecasts for May?

Meteorologist Ryan Maue said early tropical storms are possible in the Eastern Pacific until the end of May despite X, but the top weather models show quiet patterns in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (renamed the US Gulf by the US government).





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