Thanksgiving dinner prices will fall in 2025, Wells Fargo says
In 2025, the price of Thanksgiving meals will drop slightly, with major retailers offering lower-priced options.
For a change of pace, here’s how rising food prices are making the cost of a meal go down, not up.
The cost of Thanksgiving meals has decreased this year, according to a new analysis from the Wells Fargo Agriculture and Food Research Institute.
The annual report examines the price consumers pay for a traditional Thanksgiving meal that includes turkey, vegetables, cranberries and other side dishes, stuffing and rolls, pumpkin pie and drinks for 10 people. USA TODAY had exclusive early coverage of the Wells Fargo report.
A national brand menu for 10 people will cost $95, and an all-private label or store brand menu will cost $80, according to Wells Fargo.
what’s happening with turkey prices
Michael Swanson, chief agricultural economist at Wells Fargo, said the CPI for household food prices rose 2.7% in September from a year earlier, but prices on Wells Fargo’s Thanksgiving menu fell about 2% to 3%, depending on a shopper’s strategy.
Mr Swanson said the two main reasons for the increase in food CPI this year were higher beef prices and the initial spike in egg prices due to bird flu.
“If you take those two out of the index, it’s actually a completely different story. Typically, neither element is featured on Thanksgiving,” Swanson told USA TODAY.
Other predictions are that Thanksgiving prices could rise, but Swanson said that’s the difference between wholesale and consumer prices.
Swanson said some retailers planned more for the holidays than others. Bird flu has previously affected some turkey flocks, and this year’s inventory is lower than last year. Swanson said retailers that had locked in low prices could pass those prices on to shoppers, while others could set higher prices.
Aldi and Walmart recently announced that a Thanksgiving meal for 10 people will cost $40, USA TODAY previously reported.
How do people plan to celebrate Thanksgiving?
Thanksgiving meal prep plans vary from person to person. According to the NIQ survey, 39% of respondents said they planned to prepare meals from scratch, and 20% said they would include a combination of store-bought and homemade items on the table.
Shoppers are feeling stressed by rising food prices, with 58% of those surveyed citing concerns about food price inflation. As a result, 25% said they plan to buy more private label brands, and 31% said they would choose private label over name brand if possible. There are still 5% of people who say they prefer name brands.
Some people are also looking for other ways to reduce the cost of the celebration. According to NIQ, 31% are holding smaller gatherings, 31% are skipping “non-essentials” like flower arrangements, and 27% are eating fewer side dishes.
What will be the price of some Thanksgiving meals?
Here are the prices for various popular cuts of Thanksgiving meals:
Frozen vegetables: This year, prices for private and national brands of frozen vegetables have changed. According to Wells Fargo, national brand name frozen vegetables are down 15%, while private label vegetables are up 0.8%. Swanson said store brands are gaining acceptance, with shoppers continuing to feel like they’re “not really sacrificing quality by purchasing store brands.” National brands need to innovate and lower prices to remain competitive, he said. For those who prefer fresh vegetables, the price is the same or slightly higher than frozen vegetables.
Cranberries, gravy, rolls, pumpkin pie: Wells Fargo said private label dinner rolls had the biggest savings this year, with a 22% price reduction. Some key side dishes, such as stuffing, cooked gravy mixes and fresh cranberries, also fell 3% to 4% from last year. Nationally branded pumpkin pie also fell 3%.
Prepared mashed potatoes: Swanson said the dish appeared on Wells Fargo’s Thanksgiving menu for the first time this year because of the popularity of cooked mashed potatoes on Thanksgiving menus. Although it’s cheaper to peel and cook fresh potatoes, many Americans are opting for the convenience of pre-cooked mashed potato mixes, he said. Prices fell 1.5% from last year.
The prices of some side dishes have increased. According to the report, the overall dairy category increased 1.4% year over year, with prepackaged salad mixes increasing 0.3% and whipped cream increasing 3%.
Bring me a drink: This year’s drinks are varied. Beer prices are up 3% year over year, while the overall wine category is either flat or down slightly by 0.1% year over year. Soft drinks saw both increases and decreases, with prices for 12-ounce cans down 3% from last year, but prices for 2-liter bottles up 7%. But even with that increased volume, 2-liter bottles are still more economical than 12-ounce cans, Swanson said.
Betty Lin-Fisher is a consumer reporter for USA TODAY. Contact her at blinfisher@USATODAY.com or follow her at @blinfisher on X, Facebook and Instagram and @blinfisher.bsky.social on Bluesky.. Sign up for our free The Daily Money newsletter, breaking down complex consumer and financial news. Subscribe here.
