Could a Republican loss in the 2025 election affect the 2026 midterm elections?
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The Republican Party, and President Donald Trump, are facing a new challenge.
The race for a seat in the Miami mayor’s office is a tight race between Democrat Eileen Higgins and Republican Emilio González, with Democrats holding a slight lead in early voting and culminating Tuesday night during a special runoff election.
Democrats secured multiple wins in this year’s off-season elections, including governorships in Virginia and New Jersey and the mayoral race in New York. Democrats also appear to be making inroads in districts where President Donald Trump previously won by double digits, such as Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District.
In Miami, that trend appears to remain in an area that Trump flipped in the 2024 presidential election.
Higgins has received the support of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and other key figures in the national Democratic Party, and came in first place in the Miami mayor’s race on November 4th with about 35% of the vote. González, who secured President Trump’s support, came in second place with 19%.
Since no candidate received more than 50% of the votes, a runoff election was held between the top two candidates from the two major political parties.
Miami has not elected a Democratic mayor in about 25 years.
Here’s what you need to know about the race.
Who is Eileen Higgins?
Higgins, 61, is a former Miami-Dade County commissioner who wears the label “La Gringa.” Until this year, she served on the committee representing the district that includes the Cuban enclave of Little Havana. She was first elected in 2018.
Higgins resigned from the commission under Florida’s resignation law. The law requires elected officials to resign before running for another office. She was the longest-serving member of the committee.
This is not the first time Higgins has attempted to run for another office.
In May 2022, Higgins announced his candidacy for Florida’s 27th Congressional District and ended his campaign a few days later. At the time, she said she wanted to avoid a Democratic primary against Annette Taddeo, the party’s eventual nominee.
Higgins has focused on housing affordability throughout her mayoral campaign. New Yorkers and Californians flocked to Miami in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. This has led to higher living and housing costs for residents, which was a key factor in Trump’s double-digit victory in Miami-Dade County.
Throughout his campaign, Higgins has focused on local issues and his past accomplishments as a commissioner who helped secure funding to expand affordable housing and expand two rapid transit lines.
But even though Higgins could make history as the first Democrat and first non-Hispanic mayor in nearly 30 years, he said in an interview with USA TODAY that he has so far relied on support from all party members and will govern with that in mind.
“I lead with democratic values, but I serve everyone,” she said. “I never asked you what party you were, and I never asked you if you voted for me.”
Who is Emilio González?
Mr. Gonzalez, 68, is a retired Air Force colonel who served as city manager under Mayor Francis Suarez.
He had a 26-year military career that included military attaché in Mexico and El Salvador and senior positions at the Defense Intelligence Agency. He is also the former director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services under Republican President George W. Bush.
Throughout his campaign, González has focused on fighting corruption and “nepotism” in the city.
Mr. Gonzalez has been endorsed by Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Rick Scott and Mr. Trump.
After it was announced that the race would be a runoff, President Trump said in a Nov. 17 post on Truth Social that Gonzalez would “continue to fight tirelessly to grow our economy, cut taxes and regulations, advance MADE IN THE USA, unleash America’s power over energy, protect our now very secure borders, ensure security, stop immigration crime, and protect the Second Amendment, which is always under siege.”
Is this a sign of a blue wave for the 2026 midterm elections?
This year, Democrats won overwhelming victories in the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. In Tennessee’s Republican district, which Trump won by 22 percentage points, Democrat Aftin Behn lost to Trump supporter Matt Van Epps by just 9 points.
This is a trend Democrats hope to continue in the Miami mayoral race.
The Democratic National Committee poured resources into supporting Higgins ahead of the runoff, including a bilingual organizing campaign. She has also received support from national politicians like Buttigieg and Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego.
“I believe deeply in the importance of local leadership, especially right now, and Eileen has spent years serving this community,” Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, said in a video endorsement posted on Dec. 5. “She listens, she works hard, and she delivers. And that’s exactly what Miami needs right now.”
Trump flipped Miami-Dade County in 2024, winning about 55% of the vote, to Democrat Kamala Harris’ 44%. Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton won the country in 2020 and 2016, respectively. A loss for Mr. Gonzalez would be seen as a setback for Mr. Trump and the Republican Party nationally.
But locally, longtime politicians say they don’t seem to think too much about whether Higgins will secure victory.
Xaver Suarez, who served as mayor in the 1980s and 1990s and is the father of current Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, downplayed the chances of a Democratic victory in the race.
“This is a strange year in bipartisanship. Each party recognizes that money makes a big difference,” Suarez said, pointing to the Democratic National Committee (DNC) campaign, which supports Higgins.
But Suarez said Democrats will still try to use the victory to “build momentum.”
“Mommy didn’t raise a fool,” he said.
