Ice attacks and massive deportation could cost California losses and other funds of $275 billion, the report finds.
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Scripps News
It’s hard to believe that Luperopes is painfully slow in mostly Hispanic areas of East San Jose, California, these days, for businesses and pedestrians.
“They’re either getting closer to the house or not coming out at all,” said Lopez, who owns an Arteagas Food Center supermarket with nine members.
She said young people are buying large quantities because they fear their parents are outside and could be picked up by immigration agents. “We’re seeing changes in our shopping habits,” Lopez said. Co-founder of Avanzando, a nonprofit supporting Latinos.
Despite the Trump administration preparing to strengthen immigration enforcement across the country, the focus in California has so far already hurt the local economy, research and anecdotal reports suggest.
Recent research estimates that the hit to California, the fourth-largest economy in the world, could reach $275 billion.
“It’s pretty much a lot that surprised us,” said Abby Rice, research director at the Bay Area Council Economic Institute, author of the nonprofit’s June report. “We expected it to grow, but we didn’t realize how vast and important the undocumented workers would play in maintaining California’s economy. That’s bigger than we thought.”
The immigrant attack led to a decline in California’s workforce
Since the report was released, the Trump administration has expanded immigrant raids to include more people with no criminal history.
The Department of Homeland Security said nearly 2,800 undocumented immigrants have been arrested in Greater Los Angeles. Local media reported that many were between June 6th and 22nd.
The attacks had a dramatic and immediate effect on the labor force. About 465,000 workers fled in the week of June 8th, according to a University of California Merced study in July, as immigration officials attacked workplaces throughout the Los Angeles area.
As a result, people working in private sector jobs in California fell by 3.1%. This is a decline that has not been seen since the Covid-19 pandemic, the study noted, but it is unclear whether they left forever or left a short time.
California lieutenant governor Eleni Kunarakis said immigration is the backbone of the state’s economic workforce.
“They are the workers who feed us, the caregivers who support us, the entrepreneurs who promote innovation, and the neighbours who strengthen our community,” Kunarakis said in a statement. “The ripple effects of massive deportation in California will be felt across the nation.”
Report: Undocumented workers’ engraving cannot be underestimated
Of California’s 10.6 million immigrants, 2.3 million have not been documented, according to the Pew Research Center. They make up 8% of all workers across the state.
Undocumented immigrants are more likely to fall into the workforce than Californians born in the US, said Rays of the Bay Area Council, with 72% of undocumented immigrants participating in the workforce compared to about 67% of native-born people.
Immigration is widespread, but is concentrated in specific sectors and geographical regions. Over 60% of California’s agricultural workers are immigrants, and almost 26% are undocumented. Approximately 41% of the state’s construction workers are immigrants, while 14% have not been documented, Raisz’s report found.
These workers are concentrated in coastal urban areas of the Bay Area and Los Angeles, as well as in agricultural hubs in the Central Valley.
“These regions are key drivers of California’s economy and understanding the potential impact of deportation on local, state and national economies is more important than ever,” the report said.
And even these high figures are likely shortages, said Darlene Tenness, executive director of Farm Worker Caravan, a farm worker in a San Jose-based nonprofit support area.
“It’s very difficult to document undocumented documentation. They’re a very shadowy community,” Tenness told USA Today. “I think it’s difficult to put numbers in. We need to understand that almost every industry in California uses undocumented workers.”
Undocumented workers’ impact on agriculture and construction
Raisz said her report shows how well undocumented immigrants are in California and how much they contribute to their community.
“Around two-thirds of them have lived here for over a decade, and about a third have lived their own homes, so they pay both their income and property taxes,” Rice said.
Without undocumented labor, GDP generated by California agriculture would fall by 14%, Raisz said, adding that the state’s construction industry would fall by 16%. Both sectors had already experienced labor shortages, he said, which would only be exacerbated by the crackdown on immigration.
Tenays said that Americans and some parts of the world cannot access fresh fruits and vegetables without undocumented workers, as California’s coastal counties and Central Valley are consistently one of the nation’s largest farmers.
“Without (undocumented workers), we won’t eat, period,” Tenness said. “All things you eat from the grocery store, strawberries, grapes, lettuce, bread, cereals, all came from the ground at some point. Do you guess who chose?”
According to George Carillo, CEO of Hispanic Construction Council, approximately half of the country’s 4.3 million construction workers are Hispanic, of which 1 million have not been documented.
Carillo said these workers are thousands of workers in California.
“Who do you think will help rebuild a lost home?” Carillo said.
