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Some Soviet cars that malfunctioned on their way to Venus more than 50 years ago are scheduled to return to Earth soon this week.
Much is unknown about the fragments of the universe, called Cosmos 482 (also spelled Kosmos 482).
Most predictions estimate that the object will reenter the atmosphere around May 10th, but some uncertainty about its exact shape and size, as well as the unpredictability of the weather in space, is inevitable.
Researchers also believe it is a probe, or “entry capsule,” but it is a “entry capsule,” designed to survive extreme temperatures and pressures on Venus, but it has an atmosphere of 90 times more dense than the Earth. That means it can survive an unexpected trip back home, poses a small but non-zero risk to people on earth.
Space junk and meteors are routinely directed towards collision landings on Earth, but most objects fall apart as they hit the Earth’s thick atmosphere, travelling thousands of miles per hour, causing them to collapse as they are torn apart due to friction and pressure.
However, if the Cosmos 482 object is certainly a Soviet re-entry capsule, it will equip a considerable heat shield. That means “it could withstand Earth’s atmosphere invasion and hit the ground,” according to Dr. Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist and astronomer at the Harvard Smithsonian Center, who shares predictions on his website.
The risk of objects that strike people on the ground is minimal, and “no major concern is needed,” writes McDowell.
The Soviet Space Institute, or IKI, was founded in the mid-1960s during the space race of the 20th century, where the Soviet Union faced off against the US, the major space exploration competitor.
Iki’s Venera program sent a series of probes towards Venus in the 1970s and 1980s, some returning travel and beam data and images to Earth before halting travel.
According to McDowell, two spacecrafts in that program, the V-71 No. 670 and the V-71 No. 671, were launched in 1972. However, only one person made a successful voyage to Venus. The V-71 No. 670 operated on the surface of the Earth for about 50 minutes.
The V-71 No. 671 was not. The rocket carried the Venella spacecraft into a “car park” around Earth. However, NASA said the vehicle was unable to withstand Venus’ travel trajectory and left it close to home.
From the 1960s, NASA said that Soviet vehicles that remained in Earth’s orbit since the 1960s were given a cosmos name and numerical designation for tracking purposes.
Several shards have been created from the failure of V-71 No. 671. At least two have already fallen off track. However, researchers believe that the set for returning to our planet this week is a cylindrical entry capsule, or Cosmos 482, for vehicle orbital behavior.
“There was a very low point in the orbit, but it didn’t collapse for decades, so it’s very dense,” said Marlon Souzi, an aerospace society expert, a federally funded research group’s space fragments expert. “So, it’s clearly ball-ball-like.”
And although Venus’ probes were equipped with parachutes, the vehicle has not been used in harsh environments in space for the past decades. This means it’s very unlikely that a parachute will help deploy at the right time or slow down the vehicle’s descent, Langbroke told CNN.
According to calculations by Aerospace Corporation, Cosmos 482 is about 1 in 25,000 people who will cause fatal damage.
That’s a much lower risk than some other universe fragments. At least some decommissioned rocket parts are reintroduced into the Earth’s atmosphere every year, Sorge notes, increasing the likelihood of a major disaster.
However, if the Cosmos 482 object hits the ground, it is likely to land between 52°N and 52°S, Langbroke said in an email.
“The region includes several prominent land and countries, including Africa, South America, Australia, the US, parts of Canada, parts of Europe, parts of Asia, and more,” Langbroke said.
“But 70% of our planets are water, so we could potentially go to the ocean somewhere,” Langbroke said in an email. “Yes, there’s a risk, but it’s small. You’re at a greater risk of being hit by lightning once in a lifetime.”
Sorge emphasized that if Cosmos 482 hits dry land, it is important that bystanders do not try to touch the debris. Older spacecraft can leak dangerous fuel and pose other risks to people and property.
“Please contact the authorities,” urged Souji. “Don’t ruin that.”
Parker Wishik, a spokesman for Aerospace Corporation, added that under the 1967 Space Treaty (still a major document in the International Space Law overview), Russia may maintain ownership of the surviving wreckage and attempt to recover after landing.
And while the global space community has taken steps in recent years to ensure that fewer spacecrafts are returned to Earth, the Cosmos 482 vehicles underscore the importance of continuing those efforts, Wishik added.
“What’s going up has to go down,” he said. “We’re talking about it over 50 years later. This is another evidence of the importance of debris mitigation, and make sure that what you post in space today may affect us over the next few decades, so make sure you’re making sure that dialogue (as a space community) is ongoing.”