A government shutdown is politically risky, but Democrats sense a shift in the wind on immigration enforcement as the White House walks a new tightrope.
Tensions rise as Minnesota sues DHS
Tensions are high in Minnesota and Illinois, with each state suing the Department of Homeland Security.
- Leaders in Washington face a Jan. 30 deadline to avoid a government shutdown over a dispute over immigration enforcement.
- The standoff comes in the wake of civil unrest in Minneapolis after two Americans were killed by federal agents while working in immigration detention.
- Recent polls show a shift in public opinion toward the Trump administration’s immigration policies, even among independents.
here we go again.
Leaders in Washington are facing a Jan. 30 deadline to avoid a federal government shutdown lasting just over two months after the longest government shutdown in history.
The cause of the attack was riots in Minneapolis over President Donald Trump’s mass deportation plan, which followed the killings of two Americans, Renee Nicole Good and Alex Preti, by federal immigration agents this month.
That anger quickly trickled down to Capitol Hill, where Senate Democrats, emboldened by the shift in public sentiment, feel Trump and his Republican allies in Congress coming after them.
Democrats appear largely unanimous in their vow to use the filibuster to block the $1.2 trillion measure, which includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security, unless certain new rules are imposed on Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the U.S. Border Patrol, the two agencies that killed Good and Preti, respectively.
Coupled with criticism of Preti’s shooting by prominent Republican senators, the Trump administration is working hard this week to signal a change in its enforcement strategy, including scaling back campaign activity in Maine and appointing White House border czar Tom Homan as the face of the Minnesota operation.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s office told USA TODAY that Republicans and Democrats reached an agreement on the night of January 29 to fund DHS for two weeks while passing the rest of the government spending bill. Ryan Russ, a spokesman for Senate Majority Leader John Thune, confirmed early Thursday evening that congressional leaders are gauging support for early passage of the deal in the Senate. His fate in the House is less clear.
“I hope we don’t have a government shutdown,” President Trump said during a cabinet meeting with his secretaries on January 29. “We’re working towards that right now. I think we’re getting close to it. I don’t think the Democrats want that either. So we’re going to work in a very bipartisan way.”
While there are similarities to the previous government shutdown, which lasted 43 days and began to permeate the lives of average Americans, experts say differences with the impasse over health care subsidies in November could force President Trump to come to the negotiating table.
Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, told USA TODAY, “There was a very acrimonious issue in the fall about whether to extend the subsidy or not, so it’s likely that negotiations will take place here.”
“But this time around, there’s a lot of wiggle room because it’s policy specific. There are a series of reforms to ICE and the Department of Homeland Security that Republicans can claim victory for by giving to Democrats, so[Trump]will feel less constrained by those policies.”
Here we look at the potential political implications.
Poll: Americans oppose Republicans on immigration, pay attention
Trump has never hidden his intentions to run an aggressive anti-immigrant campaign during the 2024 presidential campaign if re-elected, but viral videos from Minnesota and other states have changed the tone nationally.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on January 27 found that 58% of Americans say ICE’s efforts are “going too far,” compared to 63% of independent voters. When asked how President Trump handles immigration, which is typically considered a court-friendly issue for Republicans, 40% approved and 53% disapproved. Among independents, 30% approved and 57% opposed.
People are also more involved in this issue. When asked how closely they follow or say they follow ICE’s efforts, 71% of respondents said they follow ICE very much or somewhat, compared to 22% who said they did not follow it at all and 4% who said they were not at all aware.
Both sides are now rushing to build their arguments, with Republicans in particular making more concessions to Democrats on issues that political pundits typically claim they own.
“Trump needs to understand why he is politically responsible and how he can get back on track to be a political winner,” said John Feehely, a former top Republican congressional aide turned Republican strategist.
When Roysters and Ipsos respondents were asked which party had a better approach on immigration, Republicans held a 37% lead, compared to 32% for Democrats. The pollster said the gap has narrowed since December, when Americans favored Republicans over Democrats on immigration, by a 40% to 30% margin.
“Scapegoat” vs. “common sense”: Democrats have three demands from President Trump
At the heart of this impasse are three concessions offered by Senate Democrats.
First, they want President Trump to end intensive immigration screenings known as “patrol rounds.”
Homan, an Obama appointee, has already telegraphed that “major changes” will be made to the Minnesota operation to calm the situation. He vowed to “reduce” the number of ICE and other federal agents in the state, saying he prefers to work with local officials to have more “officers in the jails” than on the streets.
It’s unclear whether that will be enough to appease Democrats, who also want to include independent investigations and stricter standards for the use of force. And importantly, they are asking officers to “remove their masks” and “turn on their body cameras.”
Schumer, who lives in New York, said in a Jan. 27 video posted to his social media platforms that he opposes “any legislation that funds ICE until it is reined in and overhauled.”
Shutdowns usually result in no-win scenarios for both parties
Whether the Trump administration agrees to legislative concessions or to enacting change through executive action, the longer the federal government shutdown lasts, the worse the situation will be for average Americans.
Rice University expert Jones said government shutdowns have historically been bad politics, so it’s important to pay attention to how rational the public views both sides during negotiations.
“Apart from activists who want elected officials to stick to their guns, every time there is a government shutdown, approval ratings for Congress and the political class as a whole decline,” he said. “There are no winners. They are just people who lose more than others every time there is a shutdown.”
Last year’s 43-day shutdown furloughed government workers, closed national parks and other landmarks, closed preschools and caused the Trump administration to suspend payments to food benefit programs. This time, even a partial closure could disrupt the tax season, given that the Internal Revenue Service began accepting returns on January 26th.
Republicans are certainly expected to emphasize continued support for the overall goal of administration enforcement, even if applied differently. But conservative senators have already begun to criticize how Democrats are using the Senate process.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said during the full Senate session on January 28, “What happened over the weekend was a tragedy, but it’s no reason to punish 330 million Americans by shutting down the government as a political stunt.”
Progressives are watching Schumer and Senate Democrats closely
One of the undercurrents of this conflict will be a referendum on the leadership of Mr. Schumer, an activist leftist who has openly expressed his dissatisfaction with the New York Democratic Party.
Before Mr. Preti’s death, progressive groups lamented Mr. Schumer’s lack of seeking confrontation, but there is considerable skepticism after a group of eight Democratic senators defected from the party to end the last government shutdown.
“Democrats must make clear that their ultimate goal is to dismantle a harmful and irreparably broken ICE and replace it from the ground up in any future administration,” the left-wing group Progressive Change Movement Committee told USA TODAY in a statement.
“In the current Congressional battle, Democrats must say no to anything that cannot forcefully disable President Trump’s ability to use ICE as a private terrorist army.”
According to a Jan. 28 poll released by YouGov, Democrats are expected to lean heavily toward the situation surrounding the Preti shooting, which about 55% of Americans believe is “unjustified.”
That includes an overwhelming 89% of Democrats and a solid 57% of independents. Forty-one percent of Republican respondents said the shooting was justified, 21% said it was not, and 38% of Republican voters said they were unsure.
But if public opinion begins to turn against Schumer’s caucus, leftist fears could overwhelm any discussion. At least one Democrat, Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, said he opposes the tactic, as he did last fall.
Sarah Pearce, director of social policy at the centrist-leaning think tank Third Way, said Americans are “obviously furious at this point” and that’s putting pressure on both sides.
“Republicans know they have to do something about the Trump administration’s reckless and lawless approach to domestic immigration enforcement,” she said.
Expect conservatives to pay attention to demands for “defunding ICE”
Republicans would like nothing more than to reset the debate and turn it into a referendum on calls by progressive candidates and activists to abolish ICE completely, as many did in 2018.
In the time between the Goode and Preti shootings, Republican operatives have been slamming how Democratic incumbents and challengers are embracing anti-ICE positions in the competitive 2026 midterm elections, echoing earlier calls to rein in the agency.
William Lawrence, 35, a community organizer from Michigan, is running for Congress against incumbent Republican Tom Barrett. The battleground state seat, which political observers have described as one of the most competitive congressional races of the year, clearly calls for abolishing ICE.
But now, the agency is becoming increasingly unpopular due to viral images coming out of Minneapolis and other areas. According to a Jan. 27 YouGov poll, about 55% of Americans said they had “little” trust in ICE, compared to 45% a month earlier.
In a December survey, 67% said they currently had “little” confidence in government institutions, compared to 49% of independent voters who said the same.
Osama Andrabi, a spokesman for Justice Democrats, a progressive group that helped elect Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) to Congress in 2018, said Americans “overwhelmingly want to shut down ICE” when asked whether Democrats risked further agitating their base if something other than defunding ICE were to occur.
“The Democratic base is not looking for superficial reforms or subtle changes to the way ICE terrorizes our communities,” Andrabi told USA TODAY. “ICE has murdered and kidnapped our families, neighbors, and friends. This agency should not exist. Every dollar that goes to DHS and ICE is a failure.”
Pearce said Senate Democrats’ focus is on winning three concessions that will “stop lawlessness,” but he cautioned his party from moving too far to the left with its demands even as anger over ICE’s actions grows.
“Some of the Democratic base will not be satisfied with anything short of destroying ICE,” she said. “But the vast majority of Americans want immigration laws to be enforced, and they just want enforcement to be safe, orderly, professional and legal.”
Contributor: Zachary Schermele
