ACC faces nightmare scenario in latest CFP rankings
ACC could miss College Football Playoff if Duke upsets Virginia
- Alabama’s rankings suggest it will likely earn a playoff berth regardless of the outcome of the SEC Championship.
- James Madison enters the rankings, paving the way for the Sun Belt champions to make the playoffs.
- The ACC faces a scenario in which five-loss Duke could be eliminated from the playoffs altogether if it wins the conference.
The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings set the stage for conference championship weekend and the last gasp of an unpredictable regular season.
All eyes will be on the SEC. No. 9 Alabama is expected to defeat No. 3 Georgia in a rematch of the Crimson Tide’s 24-21 win in Athens earlier this year.
If the University of Alabama wins and No. 4 Texas Tech wins against No. 11 Brigham Young, the current status quo could be maintained and there is a possibility of remaining in the white 12-team spot. But still, there will be a lot of discussion about excluding No. 12 Miami, even though the Hurricanes won the head-to-head matchup against No. 10 Notre Dame.
In the Big Ten, No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana are scheduled to square off. And trouble is brewing in the ACC, with five-loss Duke looking to beat No. 17 Virginia to snatch an unexpected conference championship. That’s terrible news for the ACC, and I’ll explain why later.
The winners and losers of Tuesday night’s rankings are led by No. 25 James Madison (Alabama) and the ACC.
winner
james madison
The Americans’ success propelled James Madison into the rankings for the first time after being passed over as a team with playoff potential, and suddenly they have a second path to the tournament thanks to potential turmoil within the ACC. Remember, the committee is not picking the best five champions in the conference for an automatic bid, but simply the winners of the Power 4 and the best team from the Group of 5. In other words, we have a situation where two of the top five conference winners come from the American and Sun Belt Group of Five. The Dukes are the favorites to face Troy for the Sun Belt title.
Alabama
By moving up one spot and upsetting Notre Dame, the Crimson Tide can feel confident that no matter what happens in the SEC Championship, they can make the playoffs barring a lopsided and embarrassing loss. This is good news for both Alabama and the SEC, as No. 13 Texas and No. 14 Vanderbilt don’t have strong paths to the tournament. Whether Alabama deserves this shock after playing average football over the past month is another question.
american
Tulane moved up four spots to No. 20 and North Texas debuted at No. 24, confirming what was already expected. That means the automatic representative from the Group of Five will be the American champion. This matchup will have huge national implications, but one of the underlying themes worth noting is the fact that both teams will be led by coaches who will be taking on new jobs. John Sumrall is leaving Tulane for Florida, while Eric Morris is leaving North Texas for Oklahoma State.
mississippi
Not only did the Rebels not drop in the standings after Lane Kiffin left for LSU, they actually moved up one spot to No. 6. This tells us that the committee still sees the Rebels as a team that can win a national championship without Kiffin. Looking at the bracket, moving up one spot would secure a home game to start the playoffs, amid concerns that the committee would fire the Rebels due to Kiffin’s absence and send them on the road for the opening game.
loser
ACC
In a nightmare situation, Duke could either beat Virginia and Alabama to win the SEC or play well enough to defend its at-large spot, potentially knocking the ACC out of the playoffs altogether. If this trend continues, there’s a good chance the Hurricanes won’t be able to convert late-season rebounds into at-large appearances after losing games to Louisville and SMU. This is not a far-fetched scenario. Duke has a good chance of winning a rematch with Virginia, Alabama could get a second win over the Bulldogs, and JMU could put on a show to take home the Sun Belt. Missing out on a major conference seems unlikely given the format favors this group, but the ACC has been considered the weakest of the Power Four leagues all season.
virgin
Notre Dame should have no problem tying the road game for an at-large berth in the opener. But moving back to No. 10 means the Irish will be eliminated from the team if BYU wins the rematch with Texas Tech, leaving the Red Raiders still in the field as the overall pick. Now that the regular season is over, all Notre Dame can do is watch and hope there are no surprises.
Utah
Since peaking at No. 12 two weeks ago, Utah has dropped three spots to No. 15 and no longer has a path to the playoffs as an at-large pick. That was made official by the Utes’ run defense allowing a combined 762 yards in tighter-than-expected wins over Kansas State and Kansas. Utah State was then passed by Miami, No. 13 Texas, and No. 14 Vanderbilt.
