The current monthly census shows a dramatic decline, but the data is less reliable than other census tools.
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The country’s immigrant population could have dropped by about 2 million in the first six months of the year, according to data from the new government.
New data provides early, incomplete signals that President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown may already indicate an impact.
Stephen Camarota, director of the Center for Immigration Research, said the estimated decline in 2.2 million foreign-born people in the current census was the biggest decline in 30 years in a year.
“In America, something has changed radically or the response rate has changed dramatically,” he said.
Demographics say it may be both, but in either case there are major limitations to new data.
“There is no other current data that could support this huge estimated decline,” Jed Corco, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, warned.
“Even if fewer immigrants come to the US and more people are left or deported, the annual rate of 4 million is an extraordinary number outside the scope of the immigration estimates made by major researchers,” said Colco, who served as Deputy Secretary of Commerce under President Joe Biden.
Is the data accurate?
The Census surveys 60,000 households each month for the current census tracking population fluctuations. This is comparable to the more frequent but reliable American community surveys supported by interviews with two million households.
Because it’s small, census can sometimes overstate or undermine population changes, and demographers say it can take years for the bigger picture to come out.
Julia Gerratt, associate director of US immigration policy at the Institute for Nonpartisan Immigration Policy, said the monthly survey was “a truly important and useful tool, but one of its flaws is its small sample size.”
Monthly survey data produced in conjunction with the Bureau of Labor Statistics has shown “increased volatility” in recent years in the wake of birth and foreign-born populations, not designed to measure immigration levels, according to the Bureau of Census.
Are immigrants afraid to answer accurately?
Between the Trump administration’s vast crackdown on illegal immigration and the onslaught of zero-tolerance messaging, some survey respondents can be so scary that they can’t tell the government whether they or their family members are immigrants.
That could lead to an undercount, Gerratt said.
“The massive deportation campaign, constant announcements may lead to immigrants becoming more silent,” she said. “They may be afraid to say they are non-citizens.”
The transition has skyrocketed after the pandemic
The post-pandemic wave of immigration has contributed to the fastest growth in the country’s population for over 20 years.
In December, the Census Bureau announced it had updated its methods to better measure the wave of migration to the US following the global Covid-19 pandemic.
More than 7 million people moved to the United States between April 2020 and June 2024, according to the Census Bureau. This is a “net” estimate that subtracts all foreign people who left during the period.
Long-standing migration to the US has angered millions of Americans. Millions of Americans have seen the failure of border security for the masses of asylum seekers waiting to be processed at the US-Mexico border during the Biden administration.
Reversal of transition trends
During the 2024 presidential election, Trump vowed to reverse the trend.
He promised to deport one million migrants this year, and his administration adopted aggressive tactics to make it happen. From planning to hire 10,000 deportees to using military aircraft to return migrants to their homeland and ending their right to post bonds in immigrant detention.
Deportation is on the rise, but enforcement data from US immigration and customs suggest that the number could reach one million this year.
ICE has reported 246,000 removals so far for the fiscal year, which began in October 2024 and ended September 30th, and has more than three months of data under the Biden administration.
However, here, legally or illegally, some other immigrants chose to voluntarily return to their home country. If the census is an accurate count, it represents the book of mass Exodus.
“The trend is down, down, down, down. This is usually not visible,” Camarota said.
Lauren Villagran can be accessed at lvillagran@usatoday.com.
