Polls show Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco are leading, while eight Democrats split the liberal vote.
Do Democrats have a strategy to win in the midterm elections?
Democrats are prioritizing electoral chances over ideology as they regroup from their 2024 defeat and focus on victory amid shifting voter confidence.
- The California gubernatorial race is crowded with Democratic candidates, so the vote is split, leaving an opening for the Republican Party.
- California’s “jungle primary” system allows the top two candidates to advance to the general election, regardless of party.
- Incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom has not endorsed a successor, and some experts say the move could be costly for the party.
Electing a Republican governor in California could derail the Democratic Party’s 2026 resurgence, as recent polls show two Republican candidates in the lead.
Experts are predicting a “blue wave” in the midterm elections, given recent Democratic victories in special elections, including flipping a state Senate seat in President Donald Trump’s Palm Beach, Fla., home district on March 24.
But the party faces a nightmare scenario in the nation’s most populous state, where polls show Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco leading in the June 2 nonpartisan primary. The state’s liberal majority is split between eight Democratic candidates.
The Democratic Party’s dilemma stems from California’s unusual electoral system, in which the top two candidates, regardless of party, advance to the general election in November. According to a survey of more than 5,000 registered voters released March 18 by Berkeley ISG, conservative TV host Hilton received 17% of the vote, while Riverside County Sheriff Bianco received 16%.
Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell came in third with 14%, followed by former Rep. Katie Porter with 13%, followed by Tom Steyer with 10%, and five other Democratic candidates each received less than 5% of the vote.
Other metrics show a similar trend, with a March 18 poll commissioned by the California Democratic Party showing two Republican candidates at the top, with Swalwell, Porter and Steyer tied for third place.
California Democrats enjoy a 2-1 advantage over Republicans in voter registration, but voters in the Golden State say the race is clouded by the party’s inability to unite around a front-runner. Olivia Reyes, a graduate student in Oxnard, Calif., told USA TODAY she feels like the party is still trying to “find its footing” among moderate and progressive candidates.
“As a Democratic voter, I feel like what I want from my party is to be clear about who we stand for and who we support,” she said.
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is barred from running because of term limits, is focused on the presidential race and has not endorsed his successor or publicly kicked low-performing candidates out of the race.
Some experts say that neutrality could come at a cost if the two Republican candidates win.
“Nobody is jumping out”: Voters have lost interest and are mostly apathetic
Reyes, 29, a lifelong Democrat, said she usually has a firm idea of which candidate she plans to support by the end of March. She had planned to support former Vice President Kamala Harris or Sen. Alex Padilla, but both have decided not to run, leaving her with no idea who will run or who she will support.
She only knew about Steyer and former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, who poured millions of dollars into the contest.
“To be honest, I’ve been getting a lot of conflicting messages from my own party about who to support,” Reyes said. “Right now, the party seems to be trying to find its footing on whether to choose a progressive candidate or a more moderate Democrat.”
Experts say voter apathy is typical in California, as it is a Democratic-leaning state, with a majority of voters not paying attention until after the primary, when turnout is usually low.
Berkeley’s research highlighted how inadvertently the Democratic Party’s lack of enthusiasm for certain candidates is due to inadvertence. The report said voters “remain largely apathetic and apathetic,” with about 16% of Californians undecided.
The poll found that even among commonly known candidates, “a significant proportion of likely voters have no opinion of them.”
This may be surprising given that the top three Democrats have all previously run for major office. Mr. Porter ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2024, while Mr. Steyer and Mr. Swalwell began their presidential campaigns in 2020 without incident.
There are other notable candidates on the Democratic side. Becerra, a former health secretary in the Biden administration, received just 5% in a Berkeley poll. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan received 4%. State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and former Secretary of State Betty Yee both shared 1%.
“Nobody really has the support of the average Democratic voter,” said Brian Sobel, a veteran political analyst based in San Francisco. “Nobody jumped out.”
Democrat Rick de Alba, a workers’ compensation rights attorney in Pacifica, Calif., said he prefers Becerra, but noted that Becerra consistently sits in the basement of the race venue. He doesn’t want his vote to go to someone who has no chance of winning, and he hopes the weaker candidates will heed the advice of state party leaders and step down gracefully.
“Realistically, we need about $30 million to run an effective campaign in California, and if we can’t raise that, we should pull out,” de Alba said. “California will always vote Democratic no matter what. We just need to know who the candidates are.”
Reyes, a graduate student, said she wanted to learn more about other Democratic candidates during the debate hosted by the University of Southern California, which was originally scheduled to air March 24. But the university canceled the debate at the last minute amid accusations that it intentionally excluded candidates of color, casting a shadow over the debate for several days.
Mr. Swalwell, Mr. Porter and Mr. Steyer are white, but most of the candidates lower in the polls are people of color. Becerra and Villaraigosa are Hispanic. Mahan is white. Thurmond is black. And Yi is Asian American.
“As a person of color, it definitely stopped me and it didn’t look good,” Reyes said. “But I think this was an opportunity for all of the Democratic candidates to put themselves in front of California voters.”
Expert says it’s theoretically possible for Republicans to exclude Democrats
Conservative-leaning California voters like Bud Thompson, a 61-year-old state government official, said they were enjoying the sight of the usually dominant California Democratic Party in turmoil. He was surprised to learn that the two leading candidates in this year’s election were Republican candidates.
“If you look at California, you can see how chaotic it is. Look at who’s been running it for the last few years,” the Sacramento, Calif., native said in an interview. “I’m going to start seriously considering the two Republicans. It’ll be a nice change of pace.”
California under the Newsom administration is one of the large state governments that has opposed many of the Trump administration’s policies, so a takeover by either Hilton or Bianco, both clearly supporters of the president, would be a dramatic change.
Bianco made headlines this month after following his administration’s lead in seizing about 650,000 ballots in Riverside County, based on information from citizen-led groups that have been criticized by local officials and other voting rights experts as delving into conspiracy theories. He has also made support for the president’s controversial SAVE Act ballot measure one of the central themes of his campaign.
In a post on X on March 22, Bianco said, “We must conduct an investigation into wrongdoing so that the public can have full confidence.”
Hilton, a former Fox News host, also expressed support for President Trump’s electoral reform, arguing in a post on the X Show on March 26th that “universal mail-in voting should be abolished.” He highlighted allegations of irregularities in government spending and criticized Bianco for calling for cooperation with Black Lives Matter protesters in 2020.
Thomas Holyoke, a political science professor at California State University, Fresno, said it’s “theoretically possible” for both men to shut out Democrats, assuming Republican voters support their candidates and get enough votes from some independent voters.
But he said there will be more pressure in the coming months from state Democrats and others to drastically reduce the field so the remaining candidates can consolidate support.
“I imagined that the pressure might really increase and a lot of donors to Democratic candidates might push for some Democrats to drop out,” Holyoke said.
National election officials interviewed by USA TODAY, asked about the possibility of Republicans squeezing Democrats out of the top two spots, exuded optimism and highlighted the party’s history of success in the state.
“We’re confident that won’t happen, and we’re actively talking with our partners in California about ways to make sure that doesn’t happen,” Johanna Warsaw, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Governors Association, told USA TODAY in an interview.
She noted that the group was also hard at work on other elections that had favorable outcomes for progressives, including the 2025 redistricting ballot plan known as Proposition 50 and the failed 2021 recall fight against Newsom.
Democrats express confidence as Newsom’s absence comes under scrutiny
As the California election draws attention, Newsom’s role in choosing his successor has also come under intense scrutiny, especially since he is rumored to be a 2028 presidential candidate.
Newsom served as lieutenant governor under former Gov. Jerry Brown, a longtime supporter of the state, before becoming governor in 2019, but Newsom’s deputy, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, dropped out of the race last August.
“There is no logical heir to the throne this time,” said Eric Schickler, a political science professor at the University of California, Berkeley.
Newsom’s office did not respond to USA TODAY’s request for comment, but he spoke on Politico’s “On the Road” podcast about the lack of targeted messaging to Democratic voters. The governor said Harris and Padilla’s withdrawal from the race has caused “tremendous uncertainty and significant delays” in this year’s election campaign.
“We have a condensed period with a lot of candidates,” Newsom told host Jonathan Martin.
Sobel, the Bay Area political analyst, said Newsom has worked with many leading candidates in various capacities and may want to avoid running against a favorite. If the 58-year-old governor formally announces his bid for the White House, he will rely on the state’s diverse and extensive support network.
“Sooner or later, he’s going to need them again,” Sobel said.
Many of the candidates with low approval ratings have significant influence within the party at the local and state levels, and some are running for governor as far back as 2023. Observers say they won’t disappear easily because they’re used to fighting ugly political battles.
For example, Yee’s campaign points to a March 3 letter from the state party chairman urging candidates to “honestly assess (their) viability” as an example of powerful candidates trying to exclude a select few.
“I’m not going to allow that to happen. Voters are still shopping,” Yee, a former state party vice chairman, told USA TODAY in a statement. “Every poll shows that the race remains wide open. Californians deserve to see and hear the opinions of a wide range of candidates, not just those endorsed by billionaires. Let the voters decide. Anything else is undemocratic and simply un-American.”
While this race may have some Democrats biting their nails, Steve Frannes, a psychologist in Piedmont, California, said he’s glad so many are running for governor. He said it would be a hassle to vet all the candidates, but he hoped it would become less onerous in the coming weeks.
“I’m trying to narrow down my options,” said Frannes, 75. “It’ll still take a few months to figure everything out, right?”
