The Atlantic Ocean is predicted to see tropical waves coming out of West African coasts over the next few days.
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The Tropics are awakening from their midseason sleep.
The Atlantic Ocean is predicted to see tropical waves coming out of West African coasts over the next few days. “Environmental conditions could support slow development of the system early next week over the weekend,” the National Hurricane Centre said on September 11.
And in the Pacific Ocean, a shower and thunderstorm area off the southern coast of Mexico became tropical depression on the afternoon of September 11th.
The Atlantic Storm may be Gabriel
Regarding the Atlantic system, “we should find favorable conditions for further development,” Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza said on September 11th in the “eyewall” subsack.
If it ends up in a name storm, you could get the name Gabriel.
“Most of the different models we’re seeing are getting pretty bullish about the development of this system in about a week from now,” Lanza added. “There’s a surprising good match between some of these models and their ensemble as to where the interference is by the middle of next week” – that is, about the Smack Dub in the middle of Atlantic.
“For at least for now, this system poses no immediate threat to the land, and there’s nothing we’re worried about at this point,” WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry told Substack on September 11.
But Lanza said, “This is something we have to pay attention to for a while. You can see the storm getting quite strong in the second half of September, so maybe it’s something. That might not be anything.
Mario is likely to form in the Pacific Ocean
In the Pacific Ocean, low-pressure areas became tropical depression on the afternoon of September 11th. It is expected to move westward across oceans that are roughly parallel to the coasts of southern and southwest Mexico, but the Hurricane Center said.
As of 5pm on September 11, the depression, known as Tropical Depression 13-E, was located about 120 miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, the Hurricane Center said. The system is expected to become a tropical storm in just a day or so.
“Interest along the coast of southwestern Mexico needs to monitor advances in this system,” the Hurricane Center said. Up to half a foot of rain could be achieved, leading to flash flooding in areas with higher terrain.
As the system tracks over hot water, “it should become a hurricane and potentially a big hurricane,” pointed out weather trader meteorologist Ryan Maue in his SubJeupus.
The next name on the East Pacific System Storm List is Mario.
Accuweather fixes hurricane predictions
Accuweather has released its revised September 11th forecast for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season. This followed “an unusually quiet stretch across the Atlantic Basin during the peak climate of tropical activity.”
Here’s the new prediction and how it compares to the March forecast (in parentheses):
- Name Arashi: 13-16 (13-18)
- Hurricane: 6-9 (7-10)
- Major Hurricanes: 3-5 (same)
- Influence us: 3-6 (same)
According to Accuweather, this Atlantic hurricane season is currently a little behind the historic average. Six named storms formed in the Atlantic Basin, and Erin was the only one who became hurricane-resistant. By this point this year, there are usually eight name storms and three hurricanes.
Contributions: Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA Today; Cheryl McCloud, USA Today Network Florida
