Writing has been on the wall for a long time. South Korea’s birth rate has fallen over the majority of the last decade, writing about military troubles as regional threats and global conflicts boil over.
Now, new reports show that the number of South Korean troops has fallen 20% over the past six years. We found this to reflect the shrinking and expanding elderly workforce in one of the world’s fastest-aged countries, mainly due to a declining pool of young men.
The Ministry of Defense reported that it was attributed to “complex factors,” including population decline, and “complex factors,” with fewer men looking to become officers for “treatment of soldiers.” The report did not elaborate on its treatment, but research and investigations previously highlighted the military’s infamous harsh situation.
As of July, the military said it had 450,000 troops. This is down from 563,000 in 2019.
“If the number of permanent army (members) continues to decline, it can be difficult to ensure limits on elite talent and operating equipment,” a report shared last week by lawmaker Chummy warned.
This news comes at a bad time for Korea. South Korea is a key western ally that hosts a vast number of US troops and has mutual defense treaties with Washington.
Crossing the border, neighboring North Korea sent tens of thousands of soldiers to fight for Russia along the front line with Ukraine. Moscow instead shares advanced military technology with Pyongyang, increasing the fear of violating international sanctions.
Meanwhile, the North Korean dominant Kim family continues to blow up hostile rhetoric, threatening to destroy South Korea with nuclear weapons if attacked, warning that Seoul will remain “enemy.”
But experts say that doesn’t necessarily mean that North Korean troops are better.
The North faces its own population problems and declining birth rates, and its technology is far behind in the South. This now hopes to close the shortage of military recruits through innovation.
“South Korea is far ahead of North Korea in terms of traditional weapons,” said Choi Byung-ku, a national security professor at Sang-Jong University. “We have a small army now, and I like to say “small but strong army.” That’s what we need. ”
On the surface, North Korea has several advantages.
According to the CIA World Factbook, it is one of the most critically militarized countries in the world, with up to 1.3 million military personnel. That’s almost three times the number of South Korean troops.
These units also serve the military much longer. With an average of 10 years, we can “enhance unit cohesion (and) knowledge of each other’s abilities.”
In contrast, within half of the year and half of the service most South Korean conscriptions provide, “what you can develop is not very sophisticated skills,” Seiler said.
According to UN data, North Korea’s birth rate is defined as the average number of children born to women in their lifetime. Hoin Lee, a senior economist at the Southern Institute for Economic Research, says that North Korea has been giving birth to more babies a year since 2018 than in the South.
But the bigger picture is more complicated, experts told CNN.
For one thing, South Korea has around 3.1 million people in preparation. Their training may be basic, but it gives them the number they need for a potential war – it doesn’t include the 28,500 US troops stationed in the country.
Pyongyang has also faced its own population problems as its fertility rate immerses in the past years following the pandemic. Kim Jong-un, the authoritarian leader of the nation, pointed out the issue at a 2023 Mothers National Conference, urging them to “bear many children” as a patriotic duty.
It could become ill for highly isolated countries with economies that rely on labor-intensive industries such as agriculture and mining, Lee said.
It’s hard to see how much this has impacted the North Korean forces so far. However, the fact that Pyongyang sent tens of thousands of troops to fight for Russia doesn’t feel that Kim “is worried that there aren’t enough soldiers to do the job of protecting his hometown,” Saylor said.
Their army also joined in to fill the gap where more women existed. This trend began near the turn of the century after previous flooding of fertility, Lee said.
Many are young women working in the military’s communications, administrative and anti-aircraft artillery departments, Lee said. Meanwhile, middle-aged and older women are mobilized to bridge gaps in other private sectors.
In contrast, women are not drafted in South Korea. This is a controversial point that has sparked resentment among young Korean men who argue that their essential services are at a disadvantage in their research, career and personal life.
As of 2023, volunteer women accounted for only 3.6% of the total military, according to the Ministry of Defense.
Some experts suggest that eliminating more women could solve the Korean problem. But Choi, a national security professor, argued that the country needs to move away from the idea of increasing talent, and instead focused on moving forward with the technology and making the military an elite.
“I personally disagree with the opinion that we must have a large army because North Korea does,” he said. “The size of our forces is decreasing and there are no many options to increase it. As South Korea is on the path to becoming a science and technology powerhouse, I think we need to adopt this crisis as an opportunity.”
On European battlefields, Ukraine directly shows how out-of-armies and troops with guns can still be held back and inflicted painful losses on far larger enemies by embracing new and affordable technology.
Tools such as drones and cyberwarfare could help reduce South Korea’s dependence on infantry and artillery, Saylor said. Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at EWHA Womens University in Seoul, said AI support and autonomy systems could further boost the shrinking military.
Choi pointed out that South Korea spends much more on defense than in the north, and has many military training, including allies like the US, and is prepared for overall combat readiness.
However, Saylor warned at the end of the day that “You still need people. There are no robots or automation that can replace trained soldiers, airmen and Marines.” Easley agreed, saying that South Korean troops will still face a shortage of talent during the war.
And there are still wider challenges. How will the authorities change cultural attitudes towards the military within South Korea?
People can volunteer to serve longer conditions and become professional executives who train with more advanced weapons, but the number of applicants has steadily declined over the years.
Famous incidents of haze, bullying and harassment in the South Korean military may have contributed to the military’s negative perception.
In recent years, the government has eased restrictions on conscription, such as allowing mobile phones to be used at certain times, and provided alternatives to conscription.
But that’s not enough, Choi said.
“We need to improve the welfare of our military and fight the spirits as a whole,” he said. He added that supporting the current size of the military will become even more difficult in the coming decades as the population decreases further.
“By the 2040s, even maintaining a troop of 350,000 people will be difficult, so we need to establish an optimized talent structural system as soon as possible.”
