CNN
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After too many nights of pulling children out of the rooftop rubs of Russian drone strikes, the devastating attacks on Moscow’s military pride over the weekend mark a brief moment of rest against Ukrainian morale, giving an unexpected twist in the Kremlin’s war of choice.
It may be difficult to speculate on the exact impact of Ukrainian wi drone attacks on Russian air force bases thousands of miles away from the Ukrainian border. Kyiv said 41 long-range bomber jets were on fire, and the attacks had 34% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers suffered a blow at its main base.
We don’t know how many bombers Russia is fully functional – the number of others who have been cannibalized for spare parts after years of straining their annual mission to Ukraine suggests that Russia was using around 20 and about 60 Supersonic TU-22M3s of propeller-driven TU-95s.
It will reveal in the coming months how extremely tightly this will actually pose the fears that this will pose across Ukraine. But if Kyiv says it’s true – 117 relatively inexpensive drones take out dozens of planes, causing what one security source estimated to be $7 billion in damage – the economics of war have changed.
And it marks another point in which the voice wins against the Giants. Russia’s main cards are military resources, frontline talent, tolerance for pain, financial reserves, and more. However, repeatedly Kiev shows that the target pin sting can burst these bubbles.
In late 2022, Ukrainians struck supply lines in the occupied northern part of Ukraine, causing a swift and embarrassing collapse of Russia’s status. In 2023, they slammed the Kerch Strait Bridge, which links Russia-occupied Crimea. And last year they invaded Russia’s Kursk, exposed the vulnerability of the borders of Russian war machinery.
In each case, the story of the war was reflected in the favor of Ukraine. But there’s no need for more time this week as a few months after a critical plank of US support was questionable, Russian and Ukrainian delegations met for the second round of peace talks in Turkey.
It also brings one of the important lessons of this war to the forefront. Technology’s ability to advance, solid intelligence to overturn the military trajectory that many observers felt was resolved, and bold execution. The first use of Ukrainian attack drones in 2023 evolved into a widespread tactic, allowing them to survive the onslaught that overwhelmed Russian infantry attacks on the widely at-risk frontline. It sent the sea Doron to attack Russia’s precious Black Sea fleet.
And, most very weekend, Ukraine says its air defense was repelled and unparalleled success, a record Russian drone attack of 472 Shahed. Ukraine fired down or used electronic warfare to block 382, but according to the Air Force, it is once again a feat that suggests technological advances, and the supply of air defense interceptors from the US may not be the immediate horrifying threat conceived a month ago.
But what about the broader impact of bold drone attacks within Russia? Was it so deep in the Bellaya of Irkutsk, almost halfway through Siberia? What will it change in a war where Russia slowly moves forward and shows little genuine interest in the ceasefire and the peace that comes with it? I don’t know about this, but it’s not zero. Losing these aircraft has practical effects and affects Russia’s military pride and uncertainty. Even airfields deep in Siberia are not safe.
Most of the Russian military machinery project immortality and fearlessness towards the longest tactical war. It uses the idea that time is on its side as an important asset. But like the weekend show, Strike is vulnerable and limited in its hardware, and perhaps not easily replaceable.
Moscow may be able to dispel this latest set-off, a strictly subordinate national media that can maintain the story of the Kremlin’s choice. But that doesn’t change the reality of that trouble. It did not stop the short-lived Wagner rebellion in 2023 or the Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk last year.
There are two damages. The inner story of Moscow capable of doing this indefinitely – when such a surprise comes, it cannot be revealed. And secondly, the ability to visit the kind of bulk destruction that we have relied on to advance in the war. The latter may slow its progression, but the former is more dangerous. Small cracks can spread. For now, they can all be given to Ukraine, but like many in this war, their long-term impact is completely unpredictable.
