Trump defends claims in job reports defending the shooting of labor statistics
President Donald Trump defended the decision to fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics Director Erica Mantelfer’s Office, claiming that the employment report was “equipped.”
US employment was further slowed in August as President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade, immigration and federal layoff policies cost the labor market.
Employers added an unfortunate 22,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.2% to 4.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on September 5.
Also, concern: The total number of salary acquisitions in June and July fell by 21,000, and the economy revealed in June would reduce 13,000 jobs.
Prior to the report, an economist surveyed by Bloomberg estimated that 75,000 jobs had been added last month.
How close is the US to a recession?
Employment surveys have been formed as one of the most common over the years. A horrifying July report revealed that just 73,000 jobs were added that month, and profits over the past two months were significantly revised to 258,000. The payroll addition on the left averaged 35,000 from May to July, leading some economists to worry that the country might be in a hurry towards a recession.
While few companies are firing workers, employment is below the pre-pandemic average, and it is considered difficult for employees who have lost their jobs to find new positions.
The brutal performance in July has led Trump to take the unprecedented step of firing BLS commissioner Erica Mantelfer, claiming the numbers are “equipped.” He was nominated for her alternative EJ Antoni, a vocal BLS critic and a conservative Heritage Foundation’s chief economist.
The move itself is ironic, and while it raises doubts about the accuracy of employment data over the coming months, most economists have expressed confidence in the integrity of the numbers compiled by hundreds of researchers.
What about the current job market?
The number of jobs in August was highly anticipated, but it may not be useful as a last word in the labor market last month. Goldman Sachs said the initial measurement of payroll growth in August was not as predicted by economists over the past 15 years. The subsequent revisions upgraded the total to a median of 61,000, according to the research company.
In the long term, predictors say Trump’s policies are likely to have a significant impact on employment.
How do tariffs affect the labor market?
Trump’s sweeping tariffs could force double-digit import fees on countries that have not reached a trade deal with the US, but even those who hit the transaction have paid 10-20% of relatively sudden taxes as the appeals court recently defeated the president’s country-specific tariffs, but the White House has now said it will appeal to the Supreme Court.
Over the past three months, manufacturing salaries have reduced an average monthly average of 12,000, and job duties could continue to compare factory salaries, Goldman said.
The broader business uncertainty about taxation generally slows down private sector employment. However, Morgan Stanley shows that July pickups may be alleviating tariff-related anxiety compared to May and June.
“I don’t think that pay growth continues to deteriorate,” Morgan Stanley wrote in a note to his client, as in the second quarter.
However, other economists worry that the fees that many companies absorb are increasingly being passed on at consumer prices, and will be consumed more and more, along with business profits and employment.
Are federal employees still fired?
The Trump administration has sharply cut federal workers through layoffs and hired freezes and takeovers. From January to July, the federal government dropped out of 84,000 workers, while Goldman hopes the pace of losses will recover in August, with employment dropping by 20,000.
The federal employment freeze was extended from July 15th to October 15th. And more than 150,000 federal employees accepted the acquisition, and tens of thousands more were fired. Some of these layoffs appeared in monthly work counts as they were challenged in court. However, the Supreme Court broke the injunction in early July, with Goldman hoping for federal employment cuts to cut more dramatically in August’s payroll figures.
How will Trump’s immigration policy affect the labor market?
Trump’s immigration crackdown — including deportation and tougher border enforcement — overwhelmed the supply of workers in industries such as agriculture, construction and hospitality. Job growth in such industries fell to an average monthly average of 4,000 in the second quarter, compared to an average of 27,000 in 2024, Goldman said.
Overall, the US workforce has been reduced by 400,000 since January. And the labor force participation rate — the percentage of Americans working or looking for employment — slipped to 62.2% in July, the lowest since November 2022.
“This shows no signs of disappointment,” Capital Economics wrote in a note to the client.
