Location is important, former real estate mogul US President Donald Trump said. A while later he announced Alaska, the place Russia sold to the US 158 years ago, for $7.2 million. Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that he will try to sell the land deal of the century and will attempt to hand over a mass of land that he has yet to occupy to Kiev.
Conditions around the summit on Friday have very positive support for Moscow, so it’s clear why Putin jumped into the opportunity after months of fake negotiations, and it’s hard to see how the deal will emerge from a bilateral that doesn’t circumvent Ukraine. Kiev and its European allies responded to understandable horror with the early idea of Trump envoy Steve Witkov that Ukraine would give away the rest of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in exchange for a ceasefire.
Naturally, the Kremlin heads have found ambitious recipients in the form of Witkov, who has promoted the idea of stealing the ground without fighting, and who has relaxed the complexities of asking the country in the fourth year of Ukrainian sovereignty and invasion in the past.
It is worth pausing and reflecting on what Witkoff’s proposal looks like. Russia surrounds two important Donetsk towns, Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, and could effectively attack the Ukrainian troops that are siege these two hubs in the coming weeks. Giving up these two towns might be something Kiev does in the next few months anyway to save manpower.
The rest of Donetsk – primarily the towns of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk – is a much more troublesome outlook. Thousands of civilians now live there, and Moscow is delighted to see the town evacuated and Russian troops walking without firing fire.
Ukrainian President Voldimia Zelensky’s refusal to transfer the land early on Saturday reflects the true dilemma of the commander trying to manage the rage of the military, and the deep distrust of Ukrainian people’s seating towards their neighbors who continue to bomb the city every night.
What can Ukraine get back with what “swapping” Trump mentioned? Perhaps the small slivers of Russia-occupied border areas in the Sammy and Khalkiv region, part of Putin, which is considered the “buffer zone” of Putin, are not realistically anything else.
The main goal is a ceasefire, and stretch in itself. For months, President Putin has long determined that an immediate ceasefire called for by the US, Europe and Ukraine would not be possible as technical work on surveillance and logistics must be carried out first. He is unlikely to change his mind now that his army is dominating beyond the frontlines of the East.
Europe is also wary of the 1938 response to British Foreign Secretary Neville Chamberlain’s failure to confront Nazi Germany. This is that it is not worth the “paper” signed by the Kremlin, which repeatedly agreed to a deal in Ukraine and then used a suspension before reorganising before invading.
To his credit, Putin revealed what he wanted from the start. It is a strategic reset with the United States, including that everything in Ukraine was conquered or occupied, and that it would drop Kiev like a stone. His aide, Yury Ushakov, said Alaska is the perfect place to talk about economic cooperation between Washington and Moscow, suggesting that a return summit in Russia has already been proposed.
There is a risk of bonomy between Trump and Putin being seen, and the US president can tolerate more technical meetings among staff about what and when in the ceasefire deal. A plan for land exchanges or grubs that fully supports Moscow’s favor may be presented to Kiev with an old US ultimatum that aid and intelligence sharing is conditional on accepting previously seen transactions. French President Emmanuel Macron becomes Trump again on the phone and goes around. Putin needs more time to continue conquering, and he is about to get it.
What changed since Trump discovered that his thinking somehow returned to Russia’s orbit and was somehow dragged in when he was gushed with Zelensky? Currently there are two elements.
First, we cannot ignore that India and China (the former that puts a 25% tariff in two weeks at risk, and the latter still waited to learn what damage it would cause. They may have given Putin some kind of impulse to meet Trump or at least provide more lip service to diplomacy, or they may be concerned about the import of energy being compromised by Trump’s secondary sanctions.
However, President Putin could not require much persuasion to agree to a formal invitation to the United States to have his team a bilateral meeting that has long been supported as a path to peace in Ukraine. And another sanction deadline on Friday followed a rarely overlooked past in kerfuffle about Alaska and land deals.
Second, Trump claims that his ideas about Putin have evolved. “Disappointed”, “Snap”, “Tap Me together” are all newcomers in Lexicon about the Kremlin’s head. It appears Trump can cause real pain in Moscow and stop threats and deadlines from allowing him to become lifeless around him, but he is surrounded by allies and Republicans who remind him of how far he is down these paths he has made before.
Many can go right. However, the stage is set to something even more ominous. Think about Putin’s thinking for a while. The third Trump threat of sanctions has evaporated, and his army is moving to a period of strategic interests at the forefront. He has his first invitation to the United States for the first time in a decade to talk about peace about Ukraine without Ukraine. And this is before the former KGB spy puts his obvious magic on Trump.
Friday is six days away, but even this distance is similar to a late defeat for Kyiv.
