As Hurricane Erin heads towards the sea, predictors are also seeing the next weather disturbance in the Atlantic, a tropical wave that could become Fernando in a tropical storm.
After Erin, what will come next?
Tropical storm Fernando could form at the same time that Hurricane Erin began to move away from the East Coast.
As Hurricane Erin pulls away from the East Coast and heads towards the sea, forecasters are also looking at the next weather disorder in the Atlantic.
This is one of three development systems that the National Hurricane Center will track in the Atlantic on August 21st.
According to a morning report from the Hurricane Centre on August 21, “The shower and thunderstorm area associated with tropical waves, hundreds of miles east of the Leeward Islands, has changed little over the past few hours.”
The system is marked with a red “x” on the map below.
However, the NHC added, “It is likely that tropical depression will form during this weekend while moving near or north of the northern Leeward Islands, as environmental conditions appear to encourage further development of this system.”
If the depression winds reach 39 mph, they will be named Tropical Storm Fernando, the sixth-named storm of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season.
The Atlantic is active, but has not landed
“The Atlantic will continue to operate in late August, but for now we do not see any critical land threats from the monitored system,” WPLG-TV Hurricanes expert Michael Lowry said in his Sackak Post.
Regarding the system that is likely to become Fernando, Laurie said, “The disturbances moving near and north of the Eastern Caribbean’s Leeward Islands tomorrow (August 22) are likely to be developing, and will likely be the next name storm, but will soon face the ocean.
Certainly, for now, most of the computer predictive models suggest that the system will eventually curl northward and then northeasterly towards the Northeast Atlantic.
If you have a system on a beach along the US East Coast that was abused by Erin, no matter what the impact it may have, it is too early to determine what impact it may have.
But before it heads to the ocean, he said, “it will bring eerie weather and increased storms to islands in the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico, including tomorrow (August 22) and Saturday (August 23), including the US Virgin Islands, but it is not expected to develop until it is separated this weekend.”
Will the development of the storm affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands?
This system will first affect two US territories in the Caribbean. The National Weather Service in San Juan said, “Across the Virgin Islands, we expect urban flooding with isolated water ponds on roads. Floods in urban areas and small rivers along Puerto Rico, urban areas and northwest could contemplate the waters of other waters.”
There is another system
Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, Lowry said the designated Invest 99L (Orange x on the map) will be fighting strong wind shear over the weekend along with some dry air over the next few days, making it likely that the form will be short-lived. The NHC noted on the morning of August 21 that “showers and thunderstorms associated with tropical waves, located hundreds of miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, are showing signs of organization.”
“Although environmental conditions appear to be slightly advantageous in additional developments the next day or so, the system can move west-southwest at about 3pm, creating short-lived tropical depression.
“In a few days, environmental conditions are expected to be at a disadvantage for further development,” the Hurricane Centre said.
The third tropical system being monitored by the NHC is also being monitored
According to the Hurricane Centre, on August 21, a small low pressure area (yellow x on the map above) located about 1,200 miles southwest of the Azores Islands produced a limited shower and thunderstorm. “The top winds will slightly encourage development, but the system will slowly move east over the next few days.”
Is it a quiet time?
Beyond these systems, “adverse upper-level wind conditions are expected to begin this week in major developments in the Atlantic Ocean, with late September and first week of September to be relatively quiet in the tropics.” Truchelut is a leading meteorologist at Weathertiger and is collaborating on the USA Today Network.
