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Could the early February cold snap that hit the northeastern United States be one of the last manifestations of our winter enemy, the polar vortex?
Forecasters can’t say it for sure yet, but it seems likely that the weather will be warmer across much of the United States. Temperatures are expected to gradually become milder in the Midwest and Eastern United States during the second week of February, according to AccuWeather’s forecast.
But even as the cold weather eases, winter-related risks will continue as residual snow and ice slow the warming process, AccuWeather said.
Is a strong polar vortex good news?
Keep in mind that a strong polar vortex is good news for those who love warm weather in the United States. When a polar vortex is strong, the vortex and its cold air typically remain trapped above the North Pole, where they belong. When the polar vortex weakens, unspeakably cold air often flows south into the United States.
“The jet stream will strengthen next week as the polar vortex strengthens, but we will see an overall west-to-east trend over the U.S. and southern Canada,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Brett Anderson said in an online forecast.
“When this happens, Pacific air tends to flow across the United States, and central and eastern states will experience much less cold air than they have in recent weeks,” Anderson said.
How warm does it get?
According to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC), significantly above-normal temperatures are expected throughout the interior, central and eastern United States during the week ending February 9th.
“The plains will experience the greatest extremes of 20 to 30 degrees above normal in early February, with local temperatures expected to be even higher,” WPC said in an online forecast. “This means highs in the 60s are expected well north of Montana and South Dakota on Monday, February 9th and Tuesday, February 10th.”
Temperatures may ease a bit as the week progresses, but will remain broadly at or slightly above normal, WPC said. “Above-average temperatures will extend from the south into the southeast and into parts of the mid-Atlantic,” the forecast says.
AccuWeather says people who are used to high temperatures in the single digits, teens and 20s in the Midwest and Northeast may feel like spring has arrived early as highs near 30s, 40s and 50s Fahrenheit.
Will salvation come to the Tohoku region, which is in dire straits?
The short answer, according to Weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Erdman, is “yes, to some extent.” “We expect temperatures to be above freezing across much of I-95 by Tuesday (February 10),” he said in an online forecast.
“But in general, the Northeast will experience relatively mild warming this week compared to other parts of the southern and central United States.”
It’s best if it gradually warms up.
“Given the amount of ice we have on our region’s streams and rivers, I don’t think anyone wants to see a lot of rain and massive warming all at once,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said in an online forecast. “These conditions in January 1996 resulted in massive ice jams and river flooding as the snowpack melted within hours.
“The future thaw currently appears to be slower and less intense than in 1996.”
