A snowstorm is approaching, but the impact on the East Coast is still very uncertain in the days leading up to the event.
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A snowstorm is approaching, but the impact on the East Coast is still very uncertain in the days leading up to the event.
“An East Coast storm could form as early as Sunday, Feb. 22, but the path of this potential nor’easter has not yet been determined, and impacts including snow, rain, wind and coastal flooding from New England to the Mid-Atlantic states remain uncertain,” Weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Erdman said in an online forecast.
Another forecaster, AccuWeather meteorologist John Porter, told USA TODAY on February 19, “We’re going to have a big storm, but it could be right off the Atlantic coast.” He said a slight shift to the west would result in an increase in snow totals, while a slight shift to the east would mean a decrease in snow totals.
Uncertainty is not uncommon
Porter said it’s not unusual for there to be this much uncertainty in the days before a storm. “This is a typical snow threat for the eastern United States.”
One reason for the uncertainty, he said, is that some of the energy that drives the storm is still off the coast of California. He said once the energy reaches land in the next day or so, it will be better sampled by the National Weather Service’s balloon network. This provides data that is easier for computer weather models to digest.
“The small details matter in determining the ultimate outcome of the storm,” he said.
Subtle changes in the track mean dramatic changes in impact
The Bureau of Meteorology corroborated this statement, saying, “A coastal low is still likely to form on the East Coast by early Sunday (February 22) and early Monday (February 23), but the path of the low pressure system remains uncertain. As its path approaches the coast, it could bring heavy rain and inland snow to coastal areas from the mid-Atlantic to New England, with strong winds near the coast and the potential for coastal flooding.”
But the weather service said a more offshore path would mean less precipitation and less wind inland, with the heaviest precipitation extending from near the Delmarva Peninsula to eastern North Carolina.
“Both scenarios are equally plausible at this point, but there remains the possibility of heavy snowfall somewhere from the mid-Atlantic region to the Northeast. We will continue to monitor this closely, as even subtle changes in track could result in more drastic changes in impact,” the Bureau of Meteorology said in an online forecast discussion.
The National Weather Service’s forecast for Saturday, February 21 through Sunday, February 22, released on February 19, calls for rain, mixed precipitation, or snow from Texas to New England. Meanwhile, the forecast for Monday, February 23, calls for a chance of snow across the Northeast.
dueling model
The two main weather models that forecasters use to predict the weather (commonly known as the American model and the European model) don’t seem to agree on their predictions. The U.S. GFS model still shows major storms across the mid-Atlantic coast and major cities in the Northeast, dumping more than 2 to 3 feet of snow, which is “unbelievable,” Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue said in an email to USA TODAY.
However, the European (ECMWF) weather model “remains not concerned with coastal storms that would have a significant impact on the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with the most likely outcome currently in the 2-4 inch range,” Maue said.
AccuWeather agrees with the Euro model, calling for 1 to 3 inches of snow in Philadelphia and New York City and 2 to 4 inches in Boston as of February 19.
The Bureau of Meteorology pointed out the differences between the models, summarizing that “the forecast remains unreliable at this time as it relates to winter weather and the extent of coastal winds.”
“We will know more in the next 24 hours,” AccuWeather’s Porter said.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, focusing on weather and climate.
