Legal immigration will decline under the Trump administration. What it means for the US economy

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As President Donald Trump’s administration ramps up a crackdown on people entering the country illegally, new data shows legal routes for immigration are also taking a dramatic hit.

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services approved 8.3 million applications in 2025, a 27% decrease compared to 11.4 million applications in 2024.

Employment-based petitions and humanitarian petitions accounted for most of the change, decreasing by 26% and 69%, respectively. Green card-related approvals fell by 16%. Meanwhile, approvals for family-based petitions increased by 8%, while naturalization-related approvals remained flat.

Experts say the impact could be long-lasting and ripple through the U.S. economy.

“Immigrants are more than just workers. They also create jobs, in part because they, like all of us, consume goods and services that create demand for jobs,” said Julia Gerratt, associate director of the U.S. Immigration Policy Program at the Migration Policy Institute.

The State Department, which handles visa applications from abroad, has not released complete data for 2025, but figures through September show a similar picture. For example, international student visas issued decreased by 31% compared to the same period in 2024.

Many come here as students, while others transition to work visas and then become permanent residents with green cards. The current decline in international students will have a knock-on effect in the future.

“If you cut off that pathway, the effects will be felt for years to come,” Gerratt added.

Besides work and family-based routes, there are other routes through which people enter the country for humanitarian reasons. More than 100,000 people were hospitalized in fiscal year 2024, but during President Trump’s second term, the cap for fiscal year 2026 was set at 7,500, the lowest in nearly half a century. But so far, all but three of those allowed into the country have been white South Africans, Mother Jones reported.

Almost half of the country’s largest cities recorded population declines after the coronavirus pandemic, but by 2024 the trend has begun to reverse in most places. However, the economy slowed again last year, with experts blaming it primarily on a decline in international immigration.

“When the labor force starts to shrink, that means economic growth slows, which means less is produced and costs go up for consumers,” said David Beer, director of migration research at the Cato Institute. “It’s a real problem for this country that the government has taken such a hard line, even against legal immigration.”

Income earned by immigrants, documented and undocumented, also contributes to Social Security, even if most immigrants do not receive benefits. The Social Security Trust Fund, which supports more than 75 million Americans, is projected to run out in 2032.

The second Trump administration placed multiple restrictions on legal immigration routes. Student visas were revoked, temporary protected status for immigrants from countries with dangerous living conditions was reduced, a $100,000 fee was imposed on H-1B work visas, and dozens of countries were placed on travel ban lists.

Some of the restrictions have been partially or completely rescinded following public outcry and court challenges.

Many of the student visas were reinstated after their cancellations sparked more than 100 lawsuits. After the announcement regarding H-1B visa fees, companies and their employees had a hectic weekend trying to get them home. In June of this year, a judge dropped the $100,000 fine.

Another judge said the U.S. government had “placed the lives of countless immigrants living in the United States in indefinite legal limbo” by suspending asylum applications and work permits for people on a list of 39 countries subject to travel bans and halting other policies.

But even a temporary change could be harmful, experts say, because it sends a signal to people trying to come here that they may not be welcome.

“There’s definitely a lot of setbacks,” said Jeff Joseph, president of the American Immigration Lawyers Association. “The problem is, damage has been done. We’re basically sending a memo to all the field offices saying this is how we’re going to exercise our discretion, and it’s hard to erase that message.”

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services did not respond to requests for comment.

Trump has advocated for border control and immigration control, but he has also championed the need for foreign workers.

While the rate of Border Patrol encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border continued to decline during President Trump’s second term, the number of people detained for entering the country, especially those with no criminal record, skyrocketed, according to a USA TODAY immigration tracker.

“I think they did it efficiently and quickly and effectively, but frankly what I don’t think people expected or anticipated or voted for is an attack on our legal immigration system,” Joseph said.

Bier’s previous analysis found that legal immigration declined 2.5 times faster than illegal immigration in the first three quarters of 2024.

“Even a completely new administration with a new ideology and new goals for the immigration system is not going to eliminate all the concerns that people might have about coming here,” Bier said.

But beyond public perception, USCIS, the agency that processes petitions for employment permits, green cards, and citizenship applications, is affected by layoffs in early 2025. CBS reported in February 2025 that 50 employees processing applications were subject to layoffs.

The application balance has increased through 2025, increasing by 48% compared to the end of former President Joe Biden’s term. Petition processing times have also increased across all categories.

The number of front logs containing unopened applications peaked at nearly 250,000 in 2025, up from zero before the start of the second Trump administration.

“These envelopes typically also include payment of the processing fee for that application,” Gelatt says. “So USCIS didn’t even open the envelope to get funding for its operations. That just suggests that the agency is not performing as well as it should.”

Unlike most government agencies that rely on taxpayer money, USCIS relies on filing fees for 96% of its budget.

“You’re setting yourself up for a situation where people don’t want to come to the U.S. anymore because they can’t trust the U.S. government,” Bier said. “I think America’s reputation is really taking a hit here.”

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