Key takeaways from the Texas primary
Texas Sen. John Cornyn lost the Republican primary for U.S. Senate to state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Trump supporter.
The race for a Texas Senate seat is expected to be costly, at least in political advertising, by the time November approaches.
AdImpact originally predicted that $124 million would be spent on political ads in the campaign, but the ad tracking firm’s revised June 2026 report more than tripled that forecast to $446 million.
This comes after the state hosted the most expensive Senate primary in history at $135 million and spent an additional $30 million on political advertising in May’s runoff between Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton and incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.
“Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced from the runoff despite spending more than $90 million total to support Mr. Cornyn’s reelection bid, the largest amount ever for a candidate in a Senate primary,” the report said.
Among Democrats, Texas Rep. James Talarico emerged from the primary as the party’s Senate candidate and was a strong fundraising candidate, raising nearly $40 million and ending the first quarter with just under $10 million in cash on hand.
For comparison, AdImpact reports that Democrats view Talarico as the most competitive challenger since the 2018 Texas Senate race (between Sen. Ted Cruz and Sen. Beto O’Rourke). Mr. O’Rourke lost by 3 points in the election, which cost $55 million in advertising.
A poll conducted by Texas Poll a few days after the May 26 Republican primary runoff showed Mr. Talarico leading Mr. Paxton 47% to 44%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. However, a June 9 poll from ReconMR and the Bush School at Texas A&M University found Talarico and Paxton tied at 46%.
Candidates of different races in Texas are expected to spend a total of $850 million on political ads this election cycle.
AdImpact reports that as of June 1, ad spending in Texas’ state legislative races was already second in the nation at $28 million across campaigns, with totals expected to reach $52 million over the period.
Virginia leads the Lone Star States, having already spent $35 million on congressional races, but is expected to spend only $37 million total during the election period.
Mateo Rosiles is a Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and local Texas newspapers. Do you have any news tips for him? Email us at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
