Even if it isn’t named Arthur, the system will bring “heavy rain” to parts of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
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National Hurricane Center forecasters announced Tuesday afternoon, June 16, that the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season could form in the Gulf Coast within the next day.
According to the Hurricane Center, a tropical storm warning was issued for Louisiana’s coast from Sabine Pass to Morgan City at 5 p.m. ET due to the storm’s approach. This means tropical cyclone conditions are expected within the next 24 hours.
The system is currently a “potential tropical storm” over south Texas, but is expected to become Tropical Storm Arthur once it enters the Gulf of Mexico, renamed the Gulf of America by the federal government. “The disturbance is expected to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm by early Wednesday morning,” the Hurricane Center said in an online report Tuesday afternoon.
Tropical storms get their name when forecasters describe them as organized systems, or organized systems, with a warm core and maximum sustained winds of 39 miles per hour or more.
As of 5 p.m. ET on Tuesday, June 16, the center of the storm was located approximately 55 miles south-southwest of Corpus Christi, Texas, and was moving northeast at 6 mph, according to the Hurricane Center. Maximum sustained wind speed was measured at 30 miles per hour.
Additionally, as of 5 p.m., a tropical storm watch remained in effect for the northwest Gulf Coast, from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. This means that tropical cyclone conditions are likely to develop within the monitoring area within the next 24 to 36 hours.
Even if it doesn’t become Arthur, this system will be a problem: “Regardless of tropical storm formation, officials in southern and eastern Texas and parts of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for a period of severe rainfall over the next several days, which could cause widespread life-threatening flash flooding, urban and river flooding.”
“Strong winds and coastal flooding are also possible in parts of the northwest Gulf Coast,” the hurricane center said.
Heavy rain has the main effect
The main weather impacts on the Texas Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi River basin this week will be widespread heavy rain and the threat of flooding, Michael Rowley, a hurricane expert at WPLG-TV in Miami, said in an email to USA TODAY.
“The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center predicts a moderate risk (Threat Level 3/4) of heavy rain for parts of southeastern Texas, Louisiana, central Mississippi, and Alabama into early Friday morning.”
Lowery said radar shows that 5 to 8 inches of rain has already fallen in parts of east central Texas and central Louisiana since Sunday, June 14. An additional 10 inches or more of precipitation is expected to occur locally throughout the Deep South this week, with the potential for numerous significant flash flooding.
Flood safety measures: “Turn around and don’t drown.”
Alex Sosnowski, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, said motorists should avoid roads that are prone to flooding during heavy rains and never drive on flooded roads.
Most people who die in flash floods drown, often after driving onto flooded roads and becoming trapped when their vehicles are swept away, the National Weather Service said.
In fact, the Bureau of Meteorology has announced that more than 50% of flash flood fatalities occur with vehicles driving into floodwaters. Many victims are swept away when cars stall or float in flowing water.
With this in mind, the Bureau of Meteorology’s flood slogan reminds us: “Turn around and don’t drown.”
Other impacts: wind, storm surge, rip currents, tornadoes
The main threat is heavy rain and subsequent flooding, but the Hurricane Center said in an update at 2 p.m. on June 16 that there will also be other impacts from the storm, including winds, storm surge, rip currents and tornadoes.
wind: Tropical cyclones, meaning winds of 50 km/h or more, are possible along the coast.
Storm surge: Up to 4 feet of saltwater flooding could occur along parts of the Gulf Coast from Port Bolivar, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana.
Waves/rip currents: Swells generated by this system can cause life-threatening wave and rip current conditions along the northwest Gulf.
tornado: One or two tornadoes are possible from southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the upper Texas coast near the Florida Panhandle into tonight (June 16).
A below-average hurricane season is expected
A “below normal season” is predicted for the Atlantic Basin in 2026, primarily due to the effects of hurricane-driven El Niño. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s seasonal outlook predicts between eight and 14 named tropical cyclones this season. This includes 3-6 hurricanes, 1-3 of which could become major storms.
Based on weather records from 1991 to 2020, a typical year averages about 14 tropical cyclones, seven of which turn into hurricanes.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, focusing on weather and climate.
