Airline prices are notoriously unpredictable, but experts share strategies to help travelers avoid overpaying.
Why finding the cheapest flight tickets is harder than you think
Airline pricing is complex and unpredictable. Learn why airline ticket prices change and how to book wisely and avoid regrets.
- Airline pricing is intentionally complex, with many factors influencing the final cost.
- Rather than waiting for the absolute lowest price, travel experts recommend booking a flight that fits your schedule and budget.
- You can find better deals by using online tools and being flexible with your travel dates and airports.
Cruising Altitude is a weekly column about air travel. Have a suggestion for a future topic? Fill out the form or email us at the address at the bottom of this page.
There’s no surefire way to know if you’re getting a good deal on a flight.
I recently proved this once again when I booked a trip overseas, only to find that the ticket price had dropped by a few hundred dollars a few days later. This shows that even aviation experts cannot always analyze airline pricing.
It’s frustrating and frustrating to know I’ve spent too much money, but it helps to know I’m not alone.
“I remember talking to a pricing director at a major airline and asking him about this,” said Henry Harteveldt, president of travel industry analysis firm Atmosphere Research. “He said, ‘Henry, even I couldn’t find the lowest freight rate from A to B except by going to an analyst and telling him to open the inventory.'”
If even revenue managers at major airlines can’t find the best price, what hope is there for the rest of us?
While I can’t give you a clear solution to this perplexing problem in modern aviation, I can help you learn from my mistakes. Here’s expert advice you should have followed before booking a non-refundable international ticket.
How do airlines set prices?
Airline pricing is intentionally opaque. Airlines have many fare buckets, and factors like the timing of your flight, how far in advance you book, and major events at your destination can all come into play.
“It’s no exaggeration to say that there are easily 75 different fares on a 100-seat aircraft,” William J. McGee, senior fellow for aviation and travel at the American Economic Liberties Project, previously told me.
This is one of the reasons why buying a flight ticket and knowing when to buy it can be so difficult. It’s like trying to hit a moving target blindfolded.
How do I know if my flight is a good deal?
At the end of the day, intuition is just as important as any other tool.
“If there’s an airline you like, or at least an acceptable fare, and a schedule that works for you, book it,” Harteveldt said.
But that’s cold comfort to saps like me who think they’ve found something tolerable only for the lower part to fall off after a few days.
Expedia travel expert Melanie Fish said there are several strategies travelers can use to at least get an idea of what’s available.
“Getting the best deals on flights is not just about when you book, but how you shop,” she said. Fish added that it’s important to remember that the cheapest airfare doesn’t automatically mean the best deal.
“When we talk about great deals on flights, the goal is not the cheapest at any cost, but what’s the best value for the trip you actually want to take,” Fish said.
Harteveldt added that online booking tools like Google Flights, Expedia, Kayak and Skyscanner can help travelers gauge availability, but it’s important to do research beyond list price.
“Airfare comparison engines are certainly very helpful in understanding which airlines are operating in a market and what their airfares are, but they may not provide enough context as to what the restrictions are,” he said.
It is important to check the actual airline website to see all terms and conditions for each ticket. You don’t want to get stuck with a ticket that’s less flexible than you expected.
Is there a good day or time to book or fly?
Although every situation is different, Fish says there are some big trends that can help you find a flight.
“There are some patterns that emerged in Expedia’s annual Airhack report: International flights are cheapest on Fridays and most expensive on Sundays,” she said. “For domestic travel in the United States, Tuesday is the cheapest day and Sunday is the most expensive day.”
Still, Fish pointed out that these are just average trends. This doesn’t apply to all flights, so it’s important to do your research.
Fish and Harteveldt also said flexibility is key.
“A hack or pro technique to know whenever you book a flight, no matter where you book a flight, is to use flexible dates to expand your deal pool,” Fish said.
“Embrace non-traditional airlines and non-traditional routes,” Harteveldt added. “Even if you live in a hub, it may be worth checking to see if cheaper fares are available from another nearby gateway or city.”
If the price drops after I purchase a ticket, can I get a refund?
Sometimes it depends on the specific airline you fly and their policies. For example, many US airlines do not charge change or cancellation fees. This means you can cancel your ticket if the price drops, receive a free credit from the airline, rebook at a lower price, and keep your credit balance available for future trips.
Unfortunately for me, and for my big trip, I’m on an airline based overseas and don’t have that kind of flexibility.
Some locations also offer compensation for air tickets. For example, Expedia offers paid price reduction protection on certain flight bookings. Google Flights also offers a price guarantee on select bookings. Both services will refund the difference if the ticket price drops after you book.
For Fish, buying a flight boils down to what she calls the “three Ds”: discovery, decision, and defense. She defines them as researching available airfares, using tracking tools to monitor prices and trying to get the best deal before booking, and using price drop protection or similar tools for added peace of mind.
“I know I can buy that ticket today, and I’m not going to take a loss if the price goes down,” she said.
But ultimately, if you’ve booked a flight, the best thing you can do for yourself is to stop looking at the price after that and start enjoying the trip instead.
Zach Wichter is a travel reporter and writes the Cruising Altitude column for USA TODAY. He is based in New York and can be reached at zwichter@usatoday.com.
