Behind President Trump’s economic stranglehold that is driving Cuba into collapse

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  • New sanctions freeze U.S. assets of foreign companies and individuals doing business with the Cuban government.
  • These policies have resulted in severe shortages of food, medicine, and fuel on the island.

WASHINGTON – Complete economic and humanitarian strangulation, or Cuba’s death spiral, appears to be the latest tactic in the 67-year-old U.S. effort to overthrow the island nation’s communist government.

First, the Trump administration has hammered out far-reaching economic deals to open up tourism, attract investment, and perhaps settle long-simmering Cuban-American reparations claims. It then prepared a series of covert military options, including snatch-and-snap-style maneuvers reminiscent of the U.S. arrest of former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro.

Now the plan appears to be falling apart in painful, slow motion.

After months of escalating pressure on Cuba, President Donald Trump appears poised to force the communist regime into political and economic capitulation, according to officials familiar with the administration’s thinking on the Caribbean island, veteran Cuba watchers and some Cuban diplomats who have been trying to piece together vague but ultimately threatening signals from Washington.

An executive order freezing the U.S. assets of foreign companies and individuals doing business with the Cuban regime will go into effect on June 5th. On June 4, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel and his immediate family, as well as former leader Raul Castro’s son and Interior Ministry official Alejandro Castro Espin, and his grandson Raul Alejandro Castro Calis.

Officials close to the White House, who could not speak publicly, said that without military involvement, the economic squeeze could quickly bring down Cuba’s regime.

Victoria Coates, a former vice presidential national security adviser and administration aide, said it’s all part of a process the Trump administration expects could take as long as a year to unfold.

Coats added that President Trump’s threat of military force is real. “But that doesn’t mean it should be your first resort.”

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Ismara Vargas Walter, Cuba’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, said in an interview with USA TODAY that the U.S. strategy toward Cuba, while “multidimensional,” appears to be aimed at “suffocating” the island into submission.

“This is not a regular conflict. It is completely politically motivated. It is a systematic strangulation policy,” she said. “Every aspect of daily life in Cuba is being affected, from not being able to refrigerate food to not being able to access education, from lack of medicine to water rationing. You name it. It’s really, really difficult.”

The Trump administration said the choice faced with Cuba was clear. The administration can strike a deal or the United States will continue to bombard businesses, institutions, and the island’s elites with economically damaging sanctions.

“Cubans are really, really, really good at taking down drugs. They’ve been doing it for 60 years. They just delay, delay, delay, delay,” said Pedro Freire, a lawyer who advises U.S.-based companies on doing business with Cuba. “The government is saying it won’t work.”

Indeed, Cuba was in the midst of a perfect humanitarian storm when President Trump gave Secretary of State Marco Rubio broad powers to paralyze Cuba’s ruling class with sanctions.

Cuba has been unable to import oil since January due to a naval blockade and other restrictions imposed by the Trump administration. Energy shortages and power outages occur frequently. Hospitals have been forced to suspend non-emergency operations. Food and daily necessities are decreasing.

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The United States has announced its readiness to provide $100 million in humanitarian aid to Cuba. Rubio made the offer on May 13 during a visit to the Vatican and Italy.

However, this support comes with conditions. Neither the Cuban government nor the military would be allowed to oversee its distribution. Instead, aid should be channeled through humanitarian, faith-based organizations such as Caritas, the Catholic Church’s global relief network, and other nonprofit organizations.

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While this proposed deal reflects the U.S. government’s stated intention to assist the Cuban people, it also makes clear that it does not trust the Cuban government’s ability, or even willingness, to manage and distribute aid.

Rubio told lawmakers on June 2 that the Cuban government was ready to accept aid, but said there were no plans to distribute it. The money never changed hands.

Cuba’s top diplomat in Britain said there was no recent information on the allocation of this aid. She referred USA TODAY reporters to earlier comments made on the subject by Cuba’s Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla. Parrilla said Cuba, in principle, does not refuse foreign aid provided in good faith.

Many factors appear to be influencing President Trump’s Cuba policy, but the ultimate outcome is unclear. He often talks about Cuba’s economic and commercial potential, as well as other places around the world that have used the U.S. military.

President Trump also appears to want the Cuban government to be more compliant with his demands in general.

“All we want is a well-run country that can feed its people,” President Trump told USA TODAY on June 4.

President Trump said Cuba was “kind of collapsing” and that the United States would follow Iran’s lead in dealing with it. “We have some very good plans for Cuba,” he added.

The United States has developed a strategy for how to respond if Cuba collapses, two sources familiar with the matter told USA TODAY. The plan, which has been in existence for decades, includes economic, judicial and governance reforms.

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Since the Cuban Revolution in 1959, every U.S. president, Democratic or Republican, has called for leadership change in the Cold War adversary, located just 90 miles from mainland America. The current White House is no exception.

On May 20, the Justice Department indicted former Cuban President Raul Castro on multiple charges, including conspiracy to murder American citizens in connection with the shooting down of a US military plane 30 years ago, gradually increasing pressure on the regime.

Shortly before indicting Venezuela’s Maduro, the United States sent special forces to capture and track down Maduro and his wife.

Sanctions on foreign investors in Cuba on June 5 could also accelerate this process.

Major companies such as Spanish hotel chains Melia and Iberostar have restricted their operations on the island.

“Unless something changes, no company is going to invest in Cuba. That’s it. It’s over. It’s just a matter of time,” said Rick Herrero, executive director of the Cuba Study Group, a Washington-based nonprofit policy and advocacy group.

Walter, Cuba’s ambassador to the UK, said Cubans were surviving on meager meals, in some cases as little as one meal a day. They ration food, collect rainwater for bathing and drinking water, and cook with coal because there is no oil.

With the U.S. squeeze on Cuba showing little sign of easing, Rubio, the Trump administration’s top diplomat who was born in Cuban exile in Florida, told a hearing on June 2 that he still did not believe Cuba’s system could be reformed unless new leadership took over.

“Or a new way of thinking may take hold,” he added.

Kim Hjelmgaard is an investigative journalist who covers global stories for USA TODAY, from living rooms to war zones. Follow him on X: @khjelmgaard.

Francesca Chambers is USA TODAY’s White House correspondent, covering foreign policy and presidential elections in Washington. Follow her on X: @fran_chambers.

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