The Democratic Party is debating whether to reschedule the presidential primary. The decision will determine who gains early momentum in the 2028 race.
Which states will lead in the 2028 Democratic primary?
The DNC is hearing input from 12 states on who should vote first in the 2028 Democratic primary, a decision that will determine campaigns and significant campaign spending.
WASHINGTON – Democrats face a familiar dilemma as they prepare for the 2028 presidential primary. It’s about which states’ voters should have the first say in choosing their party’s candidates.
New Hampshire has history and tradition. The nation’s first primaries have been held for more than a century, starting immediately after the Iowa caucuses.
But neither state is as racially, politically or geographically diverse as Democrats would like for the races leading up the primary calendar. And they won’t necessarily help the party win the battleground states that will determine the outcome of the general election.
He says Delaware still has a lot to offer. But some Democrats tasked with making the decision worry the state is too closely tied to their favorite son, former President Joe Biden.
His decision to withdraw from the race two years ago and name former Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor remains a sore topic within the Democratic Party even after his loss to Donald Trump.
Deciding which states will contest the nomination first and in what order will be one of the most difficult decisions facing national Democrats this year during the early window of primaries before Super Tuesday.
The choice could have far-reaching implications for a party struggling with its identity and seeking to retake the White House after losing elections to President Trump twice in the past decade.
Democrats on the committee have said they hope to make a decision by August so they can vote on it at the next Democratic National Committee meeting. In 2022, the battle for ranking continued until the end of the midterm elections.
Biden ultimately dictated voting order to lawmakers, expelling Iowa, downgrading New Hampshire, promoting Nevada, and adding Michigan and Georgia to the first group. He picked South Carolina first.
Now that Biden is out of the picture, the southern states that gave him his first primary victory in 2020 are on the brink as Democrats seek a fresh start.
“It’s different when you have the White House,” said Leah Daughtry, a member of the Democratic Party’s rules-making committee and chair of the party’s 2008 and 2016 conventions. “Without the White House, the decision-making process is different.”
Who will go first? Will it be South Carolina?
The first group to vote will include at least one southern state.
South Carolina faces an uphill climb to maintain its No. 1 spot and is at risk of being thrown out altogether.
This state is rich in diversity. Almost 28% of residents are Black, 8% are Hispanic, and 2% are Asian. However, the state hasn’t sent a Democrat to the White House since Jimmy Carter in 1976, and in 2024 Trump won South Carolina with an 18-point victory over Harris.
Conversely, North Carolina elected Barack Obama in 2008. Five of the past six governors have been Democrats. And we have demographics to match. A higher percentage of the population is Asian or Hispanic.
State Party Chairman Anderson Clayton said North Carolina can also help rural voters.
“It’s no secret to anyone that we’re not engaging with these communities, but to me, one of the biggest ways we can re-prioritize our communities is by investing in what is also the second most rural and populous state after Texas,” Clayton pitched to members of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee at a May 28 meeting in Washington, D.C.
Georgia’s advantage? Or will a new state be created to represent the South?
Georgia is also in contention for a spot in the early window. This met the Democratic Party’s diversity standards and helped tip the 2020 election in Biden’s favor.
But committee members, in questioning to state party chairman Charlie Bailey, said they were concerned about Georgia’s ability to meet other requirements.
The most pressing issue is that Democrats have been unable to persuade Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to allow early primaries to be held after Mr. Biden selected Georgia as his 2022 entry point.
Bailey hinted at keeping South Carolina early in case Georgia runs into the same problem this time.
“I think it’s time for the two southern states to work together,” Bailey told the panel.
Tennessee and Virginia are also seeking exemptions to hold their primaries early. Neither state is a battleground state, so Tennessee would need to pass a bill to reschedule its primary election. Republicans hold a supermajority in the state, which puts the state in a similar situation to Georgia.
Former Virginia governor and former DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe argued in a presentation to the committee that the state has “everything” Democrats want, including protections for women seeking abortions and easy access to absentee voting.
But South Carolina refuses to go quietly.
In a May 28 letter to the DNC, the leaders of five Southern Democratic parties urged the committee to keep South Carolina at the forefront. They cited the U.S. Supreme Court’s April ruling watering down parts of the Voting Rights Act that prohibit racial discrimination in drawing Congressional maps.
“The fight over voting rights is no longer just a court battle, it’s an election fight, and it starts in South Carolina,” the Democrats wrote.
Are you going back to New Hampshire? Replace it with Delaware?
One of the thorniest questions facing Democrats is what to do about New Hampshire. New Hampshire law requires the state to hold the nation’s first presidential primary.
After a pro-Biden calendar knocked New Hampshire out of the top spot, it broke Democratic National Committee rules and came out on top anyway in 2024. And it had no long-term effects.
This year, Democrats are considering knocking New Hampshire out of the early slots and replacing it with Delaware, which is more diverse and shares a media market with must-win Pennsylvania.
The problem with Delaware: It’s not very competitive. Delaware has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election for the past 50 years.
“There is no doubt that whoever Delaware votes for will be the final nominee,” Vice Chairman Kobe Owens said in his pitch.
New Hampshire Democratic leaders argue that the state’s rich history of retail politics provides the perfect environment to vet presidential candidates.
“Our argument is not that we should pick a candidate, but that we should vet them and better prepare them for the states that follow,” Sen. Maggie Hassan said during a panel discussion.
The state was one of several states that distributed gift bags to attendees highlighting local businesses. It included popcorn, New Hampshire-shaped cookies, and maple syrup.
Will Nevada replace New Mexico?
New Mexico is looking to unseat Nevada early, and has brought in a hard hitter to strengthen its case. That is Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, the only Hispanic governor in the country.
The party argued that young, Hispanic, rural and indigenous voters are critical to the Democratic coalition. The state also noted the number of women and women of color elected to the dissenting bench and state legislature.
Lujan Grisham said on May 28: “We can’t afford to lose anyone. Given the shape of this country and the issues we all struggle with every day, we should win by a surprisingly large margin.” “To be clear, there shouldn’t be any conflict, and there is.”
New Mexico would need to change its law to hold primaries early, but state lawmakers say they have support for the change from Democratic candidates.
But dislodging Nevada, which has had early voting slots since 2008, will be difficult, especially after Democrats amended state law in 2021 to eliminate caucuses.
Nevada’s population is a mix of majority and minority populations, with 31% of residents being Hispanic, 11% black, and 10% Asian. Labor unions also have a strong presence.
Latino voters turned to Trump in 2024 but are now moving away from him, former House Black Caucus Chairman Stephen Horsford argued in a state pitch.
“Nevada is the only battleground state where we can really help Democrats craft a positive economic message strong enough to win back Democrats,” Horsford said.
Did the ‘no commitment’ protest hurt Michigan’s chances?
Michigan has previously represented the Midwest in early races, and the battleground state whose voters helped attack Harris is trying to stay on the front lines.
“I want to be clear that this is a request, not a demand,” state party Chairman Curtis Hertel said in a presentation.
The state has a large black population, a strong labor movement, and calls itself the “framework of America.”
But what lingered after the presentation was a revolt of more than 100,000 2024 Democrats who marked themselves as “disloyal” in the Michigan primary to protest Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
“I understand what happened in 2024,” Hertel responded. “I think we have gathered a lot of people who we can work with again.”
Illinois has also asked the commission for a waiver to hold its primaries early.
It highlighted the strength of the labor movement. its urban, suburban, and rural communities; and its role in electing the nation’s first black president.
“Illinois is where President Obama built a movement across communities, expanded the electorate and gave millions of people hope for the future of this country,” said state party chair Lisa Hernandez.
Can Iowa make a comeback?
Biden’s schedule gave him an early boost in Iowa, but Democrats on the Rules Committee have indicated they have no intention of allowing the state to return. The Iowa caucuses are not allowing the kind of voter participation that national Democrats would like. And nearly 90% of Iowa residents are white.
Addressing commissioners’ concerns, Iowa has proposed allowing absentee voting by mail ahead of in-person caucuses. The local Democratic Party also streamlined its nightly caucus process. Almost as important, the state, which is known for its slow release of election night results, has committed to hiring outside help to ensure a complete release of results that night.
Former Iowa Party Chairman Scott Brennan argued in his pitch that the state’s Republicans are guaranteed to run first no matter what, putting statewide Democratic candidates at a significant disadvantage.
Iowa law requires caucuses to be held before similar races, he told the committee.
“We are here to serve your will in good faith,” Brennan said. “We want to follow whatever the commission does. But the bottom line is, ultimately, the people of Iowa decide.”
