There was no hurricane activity near the Gulf Coast in 2025, leaving a large amount of hot water in the region, potentially leading to more hurricane activity.
NOAA urges coastal residents to be aware of hurricane risks
NOAA warns to be aware of hurricane risks
Just two weeks into the 1972 hurricane season, a tropical storm formed near the Yucatan Peninsula. When it made landfall in the Florida Panhandle as a weak Hurricane Agnes just four days later, it became, and remains, one of the costliest storms to ever hit the continental United States.
More than 50 years later, Agnes remains a landmark event in the Pennsylvania and New York communities and a textbook example of the grave warning from the nation’s leading hurricane forecasters as the 2026 hurricane season begins. Devastating storms early in the season can and do occur even during El Niño periods, and can occur again.
Warnings like “All you need is one” and the Gulf Coast is a “wild card” were born out of storms like Agnes and Allison. Although Allison was only a tropical storm when it made landfall in Texas in 2001, it ranks 23rd on the list of the 25 deadliest storms on record, one spot below Agnes, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Agnes also highlighted why National Weather Service Director Ken Graham is stressing the dangers of hurricane season to millions of people living far inland from landfall.
Similar to 2026, when Agnes occurred in 1972, a strong El Niño was occurring in the Pacific Ocean. Strong weather patterns along the equator are known to quell Atlantic storm formations, but hurricanes can and do form, especially in the Gulf of America (known as the Gulf of Mexico before being renamed by the Trump administration).
The Gulf Coast can be a hotbed for storms regardless of El Niño due to its warm temperatures, especially in early summer.
But during El Niño season, storms can form in the Gulf at different times during the season, said Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s chief seasonal hurricane forecaster.
El Niño has the greatest impact on Atlantic hurricanes that form deep in the tropics, potentially reducing the number of storms that take days to cross the Atlantic from Africa. But there may be more storm-prone spots along the Gulf Coast, Rosencrans said.
Hurricane activity will end in 2025, making the Gulf Coast particularly storm-friendly right now. Surface water temperatures are just one degree away from the all-time temperature record set at this point in 2024.
According to NOAA data, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf on May 24 were an average of 2.5 degrees above normal for that day. Average temperatures were just 0.6 degrees below the 2024 record.
Graham, former director of the National Hurricane Center, said people living along the Gulf Coast should remember that storms can develop at any time and quickly.
People often suffer from a false sense of lead time, believing that big storms will move through the Atlantic Ocean in plenty of time, but that’s generally not the case, Graham said. “Every Category 5 that made landfall in this country was less than a tropical storm within three days.”
“They intensify quickly and get here quickly,” he said. “Early preparation is absolutely key.”
Gulf Storm poses danger far inland
The storm also absorbs a lot of moisture as it passes over the warm Gulf Coast. In 2001, Allison dumped a total of 30 inches of rain on the east side of Houston and in Schriever and Thibodaux, Louisiana, according to the Hurricane Center’s post-storm report. The storm claimed 41 lives, flooded more than 70,000 homes and caused an estimated $11.82 billion in damage along the Gulf Coast, adjusted for 2024 prices.
Some studies indicate that such storms could produce even more water under a changing climate. That moisture moves with storms and can be carried far inland, often in arcs to the north and northeast.
Storms that make landfall 1,000 miles away on the Gulf Coast can cause devastating effects, causing flash flooding deaths as far as Tennessee and Virginia, and Hurricane Camille in the northeastern United States, a legendary storm that made landfall on the Gulf Coast in 1969, causing nearly as many or more deaths in Virginia as in Mississippi, Graham said.
Problems with Agnes became even worse after a weakened storm moved along the coast. It interacted and strengthened with another weather system on the mainland, causing record rainfall and deadly flooding from Virginia to New England, including 19 inches of rain in Pennsylvania.
Agnes killed more than 120 people and caused an estimated $12.52 billion in damage adjusted for 2024 prices, according to a National Weather Service report. Similarly, the remnants of Hurricane Helen in 2024 left deadly and devastating impacts hundreds of miles inland after reaching the region following a different weather pattern.
Both Helen and Agnes embody the inherent dangers of Gulf Storms and why Graham continues to scream the message, “Early preparation is everything. It’s over.”
Dinah Boyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about violent weather, climate change and other news. Contact dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or dinahvp.77 on X or Signal.
