Maria Scheer was featured on Innovator’s Journey discussing the importance of using a real estate agent
Maria Scheer was featured on Innovator’s Journey discussing the importance of using a real estate agent
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Ongoing layoffs at technology companies, “global instability” and mortgage rates stubbornly stuck in the low 6% range have left many Seattle home buyers and sellers on the sidelines this year.
Meanwhile, buyers in Savannah, Georgia, are once again facing a bidding war as a “big commercial boom” including a new Hyundai plant has brought many people to the area.
What are the common themes?
As real estate agents across the country describe the state of the housing market in their areas, their stories become increasingly specific to their particular region. This is a big change, a return to the “all real estate is local” reality that was true until the subprime bubble of the early ’80s forced everyone to follow the national housing market narrative.
“There’s no longer a domestic market at all,” said Thelma Hepp, chief economist at real estate data firm Kotality. “It’s all about locality, right? On a national level, it’s kind of slow and steady, but if you look inside there’s a lot going on.”
“Cracks” are emerging in each region
“National trends mask a complex and increasingly divided regional picture,” Hepp wrote in a recent report.
Official data supports that view.
In February, the National Association of Realtors reported a surge in existing home sales. The sharp decline continued in March. And by April, little had changed.
But inside Seattle, Jenny Sandmeyer, managing broker at Windemere, says the market is stagnant. He said agents need to coach sellers to do more to prepare their homes and address sellers’ frustration that they may have missed out on the “top” of the market several years ago.
But Sandmeyer added that while buyers overall may be benefiting from a small increase in supply, people in middle- and lower-income brackets can still afford to buy a home, if not completely removed from the search.
Savannah’s “boom” is explained by Chris Canavan of Exclusive Buyer’s Realty. Automakers are expanding their operations there, traffic passing through the Port of Savannah is increasing, and the Southeast is becoming a national hub for logistics, Canavan said.
He said this has attracted many new buyers and given existing homeowners more confidence to sell.
Toni Moss, founder of housing consultancy Eurocatalyst, was one of the first analysts to point out the subprime bubble decades ago. Moss agrees that globalization and housing trends are moving back from the national and international stage to the local scene.
Buyers and investors increasingly need to consider not only the local job market, weather, and amenities, but also how safe those areas are from natural disasters and regional disruption. As the federal government increasingly devolves disaster relief to state and local governments, Moss told USA TODAY that he believes the burden of risk management is “gradually shifting from the local level, to the statewide level, and then to the city and community level.”
“Just as income inequality among individuals, population groups, and races will accelerate, place-based inequalities will become even greater,” she says. “Today, economic survival requires flexibility and, more importantly, maneuverability.”
“Just right…” Or are you stuck?
If Savannah is hot and Seattle is a little cold, South Florida might be “just right.” In fact, Jeff Lichtenstein, owner and broker at Echo Fine Properties, thought of his market that way until the Iran war broke out.
“It was like porridge and three bear cubs,” Lichtenstein said. “So I was like, what could go wrong? And then we all discovered the Strait of Hormuz.”
Lichtenstein said there are still challenges in a perfectly balanced market, with buyers and sellers often believing they have an advantage, making deals difficult to close.
Averaging all local markets, things look about the same on a national level for Selma Hepp. “I’ve been describing this as a stalemate market,” she says.
