Plot twist: Experts say people in hurricane-prone areas should essentially ignore 2026 hurricane season predictions and prepare for a dangerous season.
Description of hurricane categories
A breakdown of hurricane intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale and expected damage for each category.
Ramon Padilla, USA TODAY
LAKELAND, Fla. – Federal weather forecasters have released their outlook for hurricane season, but such predictions will prove difficult for 2026.
A “below-normal season” is predicted for the Atlantic Basin in 2026, primarily due to El Niño. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s new seasonal outlook predicts between eight and 14 named tropical cyclones this season. This includes 3-6 hurricanes, 1-3 of which could become major storms.
Based on weather records from 1991 to 2020, a typical year averages about 14 tropical cyclones, seven of which turn into hurricanes.
“While El Niño effects in the Atlantic basin often suppress hurricane development, there remains uncertainty about how each season will develop,” NOAA National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in a statement. “That’s why it’s important to review your hurricane preparedness plans now. It only takes one storm to start a very bad season.”
“Don’t let a ‘below average’ forecast change your preparations,” he said.
The hurricane season in the eastern Pacific Ocean is expected to be busier than usual due to El Niño. NOAA projects a 70% chance of a better-than-normal season, Administrator Neil Jacobs said.
“We are forecasting 15 to 22 named storms, 9 to 14 hurricanes, and 5 to 9 major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific,” Jacobs said. Between 5 and 13 tropical cyclones are expected to form in the central Pacific.
Do you want to ignore the forecast?
People living in areas in the potential path of a hurricane may be surprised to hear that Graham said they should essentially ignore seasonal forecasts and prepare regardless of the dangerous season.
Previous initial forecasts from other organizations also generally suggested a slightly below-average Atlantic season, but noted high forecast uncertainty. But even during less active hurricane seasons, they can still be deadly.
“Don’t let those words change the way you prepare,” Graham says. He cited several severe El Niño storms in the past, including Hurricane Betsy in September 1965, which Louisianans still talk about.
El Niño is expected to reduce hurricane activity to some extent, but it does not guarantee a mild season.
During a strong El Niño event in 2023, the Atlantic Basin experienced its fourth busiest season on record, including Hurricane Idalia, according to NOAA’s postseason analysis. Overall, that season produced 20 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. The Idalia made landfall near Keaton Beach on Florida’s west coast, causing widespread flooding.
The first storm of 2026 will be named “Arthur.”
Prepare early for possible storms
Mr Graham urged people to start preparing for the season now while “the sun still shines”. And as storms loom, he said the public needs to remember to be aware of any storms and their potential impacts.
“Hurricane Justa will never exist,” Graham said. “There’s no such thing as ‘just a Cat 1, just a tropical cyclone, just a Category 2.’
“We have to make sure the public pays attention to each of these systems and the real impacts associated with that storm, not the categories or names,” he said. This includes the potential for tornadoes, heavy rain, damaging winds, high waves, rip currents, and storm surge.
Given the seasonal outlook, it’s also important for people living in the Hawaiian Islands, along the California coast and in the desert Southwest to be prepared, Graham said. Direct landing is not the only concern. Arizona and New Mexico also could see rain from the Pacific storm and its remnants.
“Even a glimpse can cause dangerous flash flooding in the desert,” he says.
How does El Niño affect hurricane season?
Historically, El Niño tends to reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin and increase activity in the Pacific Ocean because it affects global wind patterns.
As El Niño strengthens, trade winds are expected to weaken near Hawaii and to the east, and ocean temperatures are expected to rise, increasing the risk of hurricanes hitting the islands, said Marte Stucker, director of the University of Hawaii at Manoa International Pacific Research Center.
The opposite is true in the Atlantic Ocean, where changes in winds due to activity in the El Niño region can lead to wind shear and create an environment unfavorable for hurricane formation and strengthening. According to NOAA, the strongest impacts are in the Caribbean and western Atlantic hurricane development regions, but unfortunately for residents along the U.S. Gulf Coast, activity during El Niño can be a bit of a wild card.
Even a less busy hurricane season can have an impact, especially when the Atlantic activity cycle is active or ocean temperatures are particularly warm.
Contributor: USA TODAY visual journalist Jennifer Boresen.
Doyle Rice and Dinah Boyles Pulver are national correspondents for USA TODAY, covering weather and climate. Please contact drice@usatoday.com and dpulver@usatoday.com.
