Latest California Gubernatorial Elections from Paris Barraza
TODAY California reporter Paris Barraza brings you the latest information on the California gubernatorial race, covering the candidates, polling trends and key developments in the election.
- In the crowded California gubernatorial primary, he has virtually no support from the political establishment.
- Recent polls show a tight race between Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra.
- Many potential voters have not yet made up their minds before the June 2nd primary election.
- The California Democratic Party chairman is still encouraging candidates with low approval ratings to drop out to avoid splitting the vote.
Time is running out to choose a final candidate in the high-stakes California gubernatorial race, but the support of four political power brokers could make a big difference.
All the millions of dollars spent on all the muddy arguments and attack ads may not matter to the six — yes, six — Democratic candidates still vying for the top spot in this forward-thinking blue state.
As ballots arrive in the mail and the final debate airs on May 14, some veteran political analysts believe the Democratic primary will be determined not by quick polls, union support or social media influencer posts, but by garnering the traditional support of certain political heavyweights.
Experts say such endorsements remain important in California because they provide clues to voters, especially those who are undecided. Those big backers include Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi, possibly former Vice President Kamala Harris, and, in case of an emergency, Governor Gavin Newsom.
“If ever there was a time for the Democratic Party to introduce some of the biggest names in American politics, it’s now,” said Brian Sobel, a veteran political analyst in the San Francisco Bay Area. “It’s still a very crowded race.”
For Democratic front-runners such as former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and former Rep. Katie Porter, who have important support from California’s independent “jungle,” the primary could overwhelm their rivals. According to a recent CBS News/YouGov poll, support from these powerful Democrats could clear up the voting landscape., More than a quarter of likely voters are still undecided.
Until this month, a poll conducted by the California Democratic Party had shown that two leading Republican candidates, former Fox News contributor Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, were in the lead. A May 4 poll showed Hilton and fast-rising Becerra tied at 18%.
Other polls, including a Survey USA poll released earlier this month, show Hilton, who has the support of President Donald Trump, ahead of Becerra and fellow Democrat, billionaire entrepreneur and climate change activist Tom Steyer. The top two vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.
Taken together, this poll suggests that Democratic voters are still looking for candidates to support.
Willie Brown, a former San Francisco mayor and longtime speaker of the California Assembly, endorsed Steyer, who spent more than $130 million on his campaign. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) also endorsed Porter, a member of Congress and a former Harvard Law School student, although she is not a local.
“I hope this starts a trend for the party’s sake,” said Caroline Heldman, a political commentator and professor of politics and gender studies at Occidental College in Los Angeles and co-author of the book “Rethinking Madame President: Are We Ready for a Woman in the White House?” “Otherwise, I think Kamala Harris should have entered this race to rebuild her political capital, because the bane of this primary is that there are so many candidates.”
But Harris has hinted at a third run for president and recently announced a statewide endorsement. Given what remains a crowded race, her choices for governor were noticeably lacking.
“She deliberately left out the people she wanted,” said David McCune, a veteran political science professor at Sonoma State University. “I think she missed a tremendous opportunity.”
Pelosi, who played a key role in persuading President Joe Biden to resign and Harris to continue in the 2024 presidential election, has not announced her coveted choice in any state race.
Heldman believes support from Harris and Pelosi could tip the scales.
“Either one of them will help clear the field,” Heldman said.
And while Newsom recently announced his pick for lieutenant governor, he has chosen to remain silent about his successor leading the nation’s most populous state. In a May 8 press conference, Newsom described the choice as strategic.
Newsom, whose term ends in 2027, told reporters: “I’m not going to get involved in the primary.” “I will do everything I have to do to ensure that the Democratic Party’s choices are not compromised in the general election.”
There may be other reasons for Newsom’s reluctance.
Asked why, Newsom said he was withholding support “based on previous relationships” with many candidates, given that his support could woo voters in a crowded race and some polls show one in four voters are still undecided.
It’s also possible, as Sonoma State’s McCune believes, that “Democrats just aren’t that excited about one candidate. There just isn’t a sense of ‘it’.”
Democratic candidates with low approval ratings don’t want to be labeled as “spoilers”
California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks rattled off a list of reasons why the stakes are so high in the Golden State. First, one in eight Americans lives in California. This is the center of big technology and artificial intelligence. States often initiate national debates on issues such as environmental protection, fair working conditions, and minority rights, leading to parallel efforts and backlash in other parts of the country.
It is also home to some of the major players on the national scene. The last Democratic presidential candidate (Harris) and likely future presidential candidate (Newsom) are from California. Hicks said Newsom spearheaded the Proposition 50 effort in California, the first blue state to redraw its congressional district lines to counter the Trump-inspired redistricting effort in Texas three months ago. The Texas-California standoff sparked a polarizing redistricting battle across the country.
Also, whoever becomes California’s governor will inherit a state with an estimated $4 trillion economy, the fourth largest in the world. They also take over management roles California’s multi-billion dollar debtAccess to Medicaid amid federal spending cuts, soaring real estate prices making large cities nearly uninhabitable for working families, homelessness surging, and the ongoing crisis of wildfire prevention and recovery.
Dozens of candidates vie to become California’s next governor
Voters will see 61 gubernatorial candidates on their primary ballots (which, by the way, take up about two feet of tiny ink). Among them is former Democratic congressman and top gubernatorial candidate Eric Swalwell, who resigned amid allegations of sexual assault and misconduct, which he denies. Former state governor Betty Yee’s poll numbers were low and she ended her campaign. (State law prohibits the removal of a candidate’s name after a certain date.)
Democrats faced a dilemma last July when Harris declined to run for the state’s top seat. California U.S. senators Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff have resigned. This led to a flood of candidates and embarrassed state Democrats, who were unable to endorse a candidate at the party’s February convention in San Francisco.
In March, Party Chairman Hicks wrote an open letter urging potential candidates to withdraw from the gubernatorial race. He warned at the time that the scenario of two Republicans competing for the top spot in a deep blue state was “unlikely” but “not impossible.”
But as unlikely as that may seem, there’s always a chance that Democrats will cancel each other out, according to a poll sponsored by the state Democratic Party and seven out of 10 other past polls. With the exception of Mr. Yi, no candidate will drop out due to lack of funds, inability to participate in debates, or lack of significant support.
“It’s a matter of pride,” McCune believes.
That makes the possibility of two leading Republican candidates elected in the general election very interesting, Craig Dells, communications director for the California Republican Party, told USA TODAY. Arnold Schwarzenegger served as the state’s last Republican governor from 2003 to 2011. And, of course, there’s actor and former California governor Ronald Reagan, who served two terms as president.
DeLuce has noticed that Democrats have become more combative, taking shots at Becerra in the past two debates, as the former state attorney general is now considered the party’s front-runner. There has been renewed speculation that Mr. Becerra was involved in a fraud and wire transfer scheme involving Dana Williamson, a former Mr. Newsom aide and former Becerra political adviser.
Williamson was indicted by a federal grand jury last year on charges that he diverted $225,000 from a dormant Becerra campaign account to Sean McCluskey, Becerra’s longtime chief of staff. Becerra has not been accused of any wrongdoing and has repeatedly denied knowledge of any wrongdoing.
“The problem is that Democrats are doing crabs in a barrel. When one of them shows up, the rest will hit him hard,” DeLuce said.
He believes Southern California sheriffs running as Republicans could benefit from the fight. “I think that’s what gives Bianco a puncher a chance to be in the top two. The big question here is, ‘Are you going to be a Democrat or are you going to be Chad Bianco?’
Democratic Party Chairman stands silently
This heated argument may be the reason why Hicks’ position remains unchanged.
“What I’ve been calling on candidates to do is honestly assess the viability of their campaigns and their path to the general election,” Hicks told USA TODAY. “That call was important then, and it’s even more important now. My call from two months ago still stands.”
Melissa Michelson, a political science professor at Silicon Valley’s Menlo College, said the real question facing Democratic candidates with low approval ratings, such as Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and state Public Instruction Superintendent Tony Thurmond, is whether they will leave now and be replaced by another candidate, or whether they will stay and be seen as dividing the Democratic vote.
“If you want to get Democratic support in the future, you have to show that you’re a team player,” Michelson said. “I don’t want to risk being labeled a spoiler, but I also don’t want to be seen as a quitter. It’s not an easy choice.”
McEwan, a professor at Sonoma State University, believes Thurmond, the state superintendent, has reason to resign. And while Villagrosa has “pushed the punches and punched above his weight in the last three debates,” McCune said the former Los Angeles mayor has no chance of winning.
“Mr. Villagrosa has the money to maintain, but I think all he’s doing is wasting money on the Democratic Party,” McEwan said.
Will Becerra’s momentum be enough to earn the backing of a big-name player?
Meanwhile, Hicks said he has been impressed with Becerra’s rapid growth. The former US health secretary’s candidacy has been languishing, with opinion polls repeatedly hovering in the single digits. After Swalwell’s dramatic departure, he is now one of the top candidates.
Becerra has risen 15 points since the first poll sponsored by the California Democratic Party was released on March 24. He has improved in similar polls and is tapping into loyal Democratic voters, Latinos and even voters without a party affiliation, Hicks said.
“This speaks to the fluidity of the race,” Hicks said. “As Eric Swalwell’s campaign falls apart and voters start looking at new and different avenues, some see Becerra as a viable candidate.” “He’s certainly moving in the right direction.”
But it’s probably not enough to garner enthusiastic support from the state’s top political figures.
“I think they might pass,” Sobel, a veteran political analyst, said bluntly.
