Several locations along the East Coast are in an extended “hurricane hiatus.” Some forecasters are concerned about that.
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None of these questions can be answered at this time, but experts say all three locations are among the least likely to be hit by hurricanes in the nation.
AccuWeather’s forecast highlights an unusual “hurricane hiatus” in these three locations, according to research compiled by Michael Ferragamo, a freelance hurricane researcher and prospective University of Oklahoma graduate, indicating that these areas have been without a hurricane for an unusually long time.
“All of these regions have seen significant population increases since the last major impact,” AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva told USA TODAY. “Many residents have never experienced a hurricane and may not be familiar with evacuation zones or proper preparation, which increases the risk.”
Why are these places so vulnerable?
In Florida, both Tampa and Miami are “very vulnerable,” DaSilva said. “Both are low-lying areas with a high risk of storm surge flooding and have seen rapid development in recent decades. Tampa was very lucky when Hurricane Milton passed just to the south. If its path had shifted slightly north, the effects could have been catastrophic.”
In the Northeast, areas from New York City to Providence, Rhode Island, are also highly susceptible to storm surge.
Tampa: “I was very, very lucky.”
Florida’s second-most populous metropolitan area (after Miami) hasn’t suffered direct damage since 1921, when an unnamed storm ripped through the city, killing eight people and leaving $10 million in damage (equivalent to $170 million to $185 million today).
Hurricane Milton in 2024 was a close call for Tampa. But “Tampa’s remarkable performance in avoiding a direct hit from a major hurricane continued in Milton,” DaSilva said.
Although Milton caused a shock, the worst of the storm, and storm surge, did not affect the city. DaSilva said there is no geographic or topographical or even meteorological reason for Tampa’s long streak. “They were very, very lucky,” he said.
“A typical ‘return interval’ is about 10 years, so depending on how you classify Milton, Tampa could still be considered overdue for a more immediate and severe hit.” (Return interval or return period is the average time between hurricanes at a given location, based on historical data, rather than schedules or forecasts.)
Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, agreed with DaSilva. “Tampa is a good example of a city that has had some close calls, but hasn’t had direct landfall in recent years,” citing Hurricanes Charlie (2004), Irma (2017) and Idalia (2023) as examples.
Miami: “Eerily quiet”
“Since 2004, Miami and the entire East Coast of Florida has been eerily quiet,” Klotzbach said. “Since Jeanne in 2004, the only hurricane to make landfall on Florida’s east coast was the havoc that was Nicole in 2022. Of course, Miami had a pretty good scare with Irma in 2017,” he said.
“Miami is one of the areas that lags behind the most,” DaSilva said. “The average time between hurricanes is about every six to eight years, but this is the first time we’ve had a direct hit since 2005. So South Florida is far above its historical frequency.”
Hurricane Andrew in 1992 was the deadliest storm in South Florida history in terms of structural damage and destruction, and remained the costliest in monetary terms until Hurricane Irma surpassed it 25 years later.
Ferragamo also said Florida’s east coast has had very few hurricanes make landfall recently, “in stark contrast to the seven hurricanes that occurred between 1945 and 1950.”
Southern New England: ‘It’s going to be devastating’
Southern New England, including Providence, is also far behind, DaSilva said. “The typical recurrence interval is about 17 to 20 years, but the last time a hurricane made direct landfall was Hurricane Bob in 1991. That was more than 30 years ago.”
“I can attest to the fact that it’s been a long time since a major hurricane has impacted this region,” said Klotzbach, a former Massachusetts resident.
Bob brought destruction, but the scale and severity of the death and devastation caused by the ferocious hurricane of 1938 remains almost unparalleled in New England.
The 1938 hurricane killed 682 people and had Category 3 winds ranging from 115 to 190 mph. Additionally, it moved at about 50 miles per hour and provided little warning, causing devastating high waves and winds across Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts.
“Last summer, our team highlighted how the Northeast slows the arrival of hurricanes and ran scenarios. If the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 were to hit the same region now, with the same storm surge, flooding, and wind impacts, AccuWeather experts estimate that the total damage and economic losses would be $440 billion.”
In recent times, the last hurricane to make landfall was Bob in 1991, Ferragamo said. “Since then, kids in this area have grown up and are in their 20s and 30s, and they have yet to experience a hurricane.”
“My biggest concern for New England is a major hurricane, a once-in-a-lifetime monster like the 1938 hurricane or Carroll in 1954. Residents have no idea how much damage a hurricane can cause in this region, and if another hurricane hits, even a Category 2, it will be devastating.”
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The map (above) shows the hurricane “return window” across the U.S. coasts. The return period, also known as the “return interval,” is the interval between hurricane occurrences in a particular location. This is based on historical data and is not a schedule or forecast.
The more frequent the return period (red on the map), the more frequently hurricanes have historically hit the area.
The map was for Ferragamo’s capstone project during his last semester at the University of Oklahoma. “For the return window map, we set a 30-mile radius around the county (taking into account the average diameter of hurricane-force winds in the storm).”
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, focusing on weather and climate.
