Inflation spikes after Iran war begins: March CPI report
In the midst of the Iran war, consumer prices soared in March due to soaring gasoline prices and fluctuations in food prices.
Your grocery bill continues to increase, but you may not realize that some food packages are getting smaller at the same time.
A new analysis by Investors Observer tracked the prices and package sizes of America’s most popular grocery brands from 2020 to 2026.
The financial technology company found that the average family of four now spends $741 more per year on the exact same groceries than they did in 2020, with $41 of that increase coming from reduced package sizes.
This is called shrinkflation, and it’s when brands not only raise prices, but also reduce the amount of product they put in the same package, hoping consumers won’t notice.
“No one is surprised by rising prices these days, but the problem with shrinkflation is that it’s largely silent,” said Sam Bourge, senior analyst at Investors Observer. “When gas prices go up, when rent goes up, you clearly see it. But in this case, you don’t realize when you start paying too much even when it’s cheap. The people who are going to be hit the hardest are the people who can least afford it.”
Some of the survey results
∎ In 2021, a 15.5-ounce bag of Nacho Cheese Doritos cost $4.79. In 2022, the same bag will cost $5.99. In 2023, the price remained the same, but the bag capacity was reduced to 14.5 ounces. Current price is $6.69.
∎ In 2022, a 24-ounce box of Kellogg’s Frosted Flakes Breakfast Cereal cost $3.98. By 2024, the same family-sized box will be reduced to 21.7 ounces and cost $5.48. In 2025, the price fell 9% to $4.98, but the size remained at 21.7 oz.
∎ M&M prices rose steadily from 2020 to 2023. In 2024, candy maker Mars reduced its bag size from 19.2 ounces to 18.08 ounces as prices continued to rise. By 2026, the price of a bag of M&M’s will increase from $4.99 in 2020 to $9.49.
“It’s much harder to notice changes in size than changes in price,” Burgi says.
methodology
InvestorsObserver’s findings are based on retail shelf price and net weight in ounces collected for each product from Wayback Machine snapshots of product and category pages at Target.com and Walmart.com.
Current retail prices were collected from Target.com and Walmart.com in February. Annual purchase frequency for a family of four is derived from national per capita consumption data for four people.
One product, four sizes and prices
Investors Observer says Coca-Cola tells the most complete shrinkflation story in its analysis because it sells the same drink in four sizes and at four prices.
The price of a 2-liter bottle of Coke was $1.89 in 2020 and now costs $2.79, an increase of 48% in six years.
A 12-pack of cans, which most American households have access to, has jumped from $4.89 to $8.89, an 82% increase since 2020.
However, mini cans of Coke are the most expensive option. Coca-Cola has been aggressively promoting its 7.5-ounce “portion control” format in recent years, touting it as a smarter, healthier option.
A consumer who buys a 10-pack of mini cans for $6.99 pays 126% more per ounce than a shopper who buys a 2-liter bottle.
In January 2026, Coca-Cola expanded its individually wrapped mini cans to convenience stores nationwide.
The mini cans retail for $1.29 each, which equates to 12.5 cents per ounce. Compare this to 3 cents per ounce for a 2-liter bottle.
“The simplest advice I can give to Coca-Cola drinkers right now is to buy two liters,” Burgi said. “Our data shows this is the most valuable format, and that gap will only widen in 2020 and beyond.”
Brands that have not scaled back their products
Ben & Jerry’s Ice Cream is one of the brands that hasn’t altered its packaging. From 2020 to 2026, the price per pint increased by 10.7% from $4.69 to $5.19.
Bryers and Haagen-Dazs also did not scale back their products, ending 2026 with prices 11% and 17% higher, respectively, than in 2020, according to Investors Observer.
“There were no retrenchments or two-tiered strategies, just modest and transparent price increases that roughly tracked inflation,” the report said.
“This is important because it proves that the shrinkflation strategy was a choice rather than a necessity,” Burgi said. “If rising costs had forced brands to reduce their packaging, every brand would have done it. They didn’t. Some brands toed the line. That is, brands that didn’t make a conscious decision to reduce the amount they offered to consumers without telling them.”
Reporter Marcia Greenwood handles general assignments and has an interest in retail news. Send your story tips to mgreenwo@rocheste.gannett.com. Follow her on X @MarciaGreenwood.
