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An analysis of the cost to shoppers of following the USDA’s new food pyramid would add more than $1,000 a year to their grocery bills.
This could be a problem as consumers struggle with rising food prices and tight budgets.
The USDA updated its dietary guidelines in January, essentially reversing previous recommendations and proposing that protein, dairy products, healthy fats, and fruits and vegetables be the largest parts of the diet.
But this comes at a time when food prices, particularly for proteins such as beef, are soaring.
Following new guidelines is costly
A Numerator study found that if all American households followed the USDA’s new guidelines, their grocery bills would increase by $1,012 a year, or 32%.
“The new food pyramid reflects a shift toward healthier diets, but it comes at a higher cost,” molecular analyst Sean Paustian told USA TODAY. “This contradicts the fact that 49% of consumers who need to change their habits say affordability is their biggest barrier.”
In addition to the cost factor, there is also the awareness factor. Of the more than 2,000 people Numerator surveyed in February, only two in five knew there were new dietary guidelines.
Shopping behavior is starting to change
But even before the new guidelines were announced, there was some data showing that shoppers’ purchasing behavior was changing.
According to data from Numerator, trips to the fresh section of grocery stores (known as the perimeter) began to accelerate in 2023, increasing 7.5% in December 2025 compared to the previous 52 weeks.
However, current grocery sales are still driven by the store core, where products are typically packaged and processed. According to Numerator, nearly half, or 49%, of total grocery sales are purchased in the center of the store, compared to 42% on the periphery and 9% for frozen items.
Also, as family size increases, spending around stores decreases. Single-person households spend 43% of their grocery bills around the store, while families of five or more spend 40%.
Potential cost savings by using other protein sources
Amelia Finaretto, a food economist and nutritionist at Allegheny College, is concerned about the cost for shoppers trying to follow new dietary guidelines.
Animal-based foods can provide complete protein, but those nutritional sources can also be found in cheaper options such as plant-based foods, she said.
“So instead of buying beef, which is the most expensive protein available today, combining rice with beans or combining lentils with any type of grain is another way to get a complete protein,” Finaretto told USA TODAY. Another great, affordable source is to combine nuts and vegetables, she said.
Finaretto also says good advice is to stick to the periphery of the grocery store where you can buy fresh meats, fruits and vegetables, and avoid processed foods that may be found in the middle aisles. But there can still be nutritious foods in the center aisle that are easy to prepare and good for your health, she said.
Canned, bottled and frozen foods save time and money, she said.
Betty Lin-Fisher is a consumer reporter for USA TODAY. Contact her at blinfisher@USATODAY.com or follow her at @blinfisher on X, Facebook and Instagram and @blinfisher.bsky.social on Bluesky.. Sign up for our free The Daily Money newsletter, breaking down complex consumer and financial news. Subscribe here.
