Pakistan is involved in a conflict with Afghanistan. and China, the United States’ biggest global rival. It emerged as an unlikely but effective mediator. Their role is not a simple one.
President Trump announces two-week ceasefire with Iran
President Donald Trump announced that the United States had reached a two-week ceasefire with Iran, just hours before a deadline he imposed.
A group of rebellious actors rallied, and three of them spoke from the geopolitical cliff edge at the 11th hour.
A peacebuilding nation is fighting another nation to end a war on its borders. The second is a world power with no military presence in the Middle East, which views economic influence over the United States as a strategic priority.
April 7 began with President Donald Trump widely criticized for threatening to destroy “the entire civilization” of Iran unless it agreed to end the war started by Israel and the United States. The deal ended when Iran, Israel, and the United States agreed to a two-week cease-fire and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
In the background are two countries: Afghanistan and Pakistan, which are embroiled in conflict. And China, the United States’ biggest global rival, has emerged as an unlikely but effective intermediary. The first round of US-Iran negotiations aimed at fleshing out a 10-point peace plan is scheduled to be held in Islamabad on April 10.
So how do we explain Pakistan and China’s contribution to securing a temporary and fragile peace?
It’s never simple.
Pakistan and China: unlikely peace mediators?
For weeks, Chinese authorities have been pressuring Pakistan to resolve the issue with Afghanistan first before acting as a mediator with Iran. Both sides accuse each other of harboring militants for terrorist attacks. China has also called on Pakistan to show restraint in Afghanistan, but it is unclear whether this call has been heeded.
As far as China is concerned, it is in no hurry to end the Iran war, said Joyce Karam, an analyst at Al-Monitor, a news and opinion website focused on the Middle East. “Why? Beijing is watching the United States sink deeper into the Iranian battlefield, pouring billions of dollars into it, drawing down its forces, and pursuing a decisive victory that will never come. This is a geopolitical windfall for China, weakening American control without China firing a shot.”
Still, other currents may be at work.
Pakistan’s former national security adviser Moeed Yusuf said in an interview that Pakistan and Iran have long-standing ties rooted in common culture, history and religion. Tehran was the first capital to formally recognize Pakistan after its creation in 1947, and Islamabad subsequently retaliated by supporting Iran’s new Islamic government after the 1979 revolution. The two neighboring countries are connected by a border stretching more than 500 miles along the southeastern tip of Iran, and unrest in either country could easily spread to the other. Pakistan also has the second largest Shia Muslim population in the world after Iran. It also serves as a diplomatic intermediary for certain Iranian interests in Washington, where Iran does not have a formal embassy.
“Pakistan was in a unique position, albeit coincidentally,” Yusuf said.
“Pakistan is the only country that happens to have a direct lineal relationship with the president of the United States, who happens to be the most important actor at the moment. It is the country that has had the best relations with China, and as we all know, we needed China to get flexibility from Iran. Pakistan was also the only country that had very good relations with all the Gulf states.”
Pride may also have been a factor.
“Pakistan has scored its biggest diplomatic victory in years,” South Asia expert Michael Kugelman said in a social media post. “It also defied many skeptics and naysayers who did not believe it was capable of accomplishing such a complex and high-stakes feat. But most importantly, it helped avert a potential catastrophe in Iran.”
Cases of Chinese intervention
For China, the calculation to end the war and engage in efforts to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz served China’s interests on a number of fronts, said Robert Mugar, co-founder of Canada-based geopolitical risk and security consultancy SecDev Group and Brazil-based think tank Igarape Institute.
Muga said the war posed a direct threat to China’s energy security demands.
Muga said China is heavily involved in the stability of the Gulf and is highly exposed to the Strait of Hormuz. It is also highly dependent on Iranian crude oil. He said that by the end of 2025, about 13% of China’s offshore oil imports will come from Iran, accounting for about 80% of Iranian oil exports. He said a prolonged disruption to shipping would raise import costs, weighing on economic growth and increasing pressure on an already fragile economy.
“Iran is a strategic partner. China doesn’t need Iran to win. China needs Iran to survive, stay estranged from the West, and remain commercially dependent on China. A weakened but functioning Iran is still a useful partner. A broken Iran, or an Iran pushed back toward accommodation with Washington, is not.”
Muga added that Pakistan’s role is more visible and real. As of late March, Islamabad was already facilitating indirect contacts. By the time the ceasefire was announced, Pakistan had advanced to the front lines. President Trump publicly linked his recent “pause” to his conversations with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
China’s role was different.
“Although not the main broker for the ceasefire, China helped create the conditions for imagining and ultimately selling it. Pakistan provided a practical route, and China provided political weight and strategic support,” he said.
A former senior Chinese official agreed with that assessment.
“It is in China’s interest to see this war subside,” Wang Huiyao, a former senior adviser to the Chinese government, said in a telephone interview from Beijing. Mr. Wang is currently the director of the Center on China and Globalization, a think tank based in Beijing. He said he believed China and other major U.N. Security Council members would ultimately need to provide “peace guarantees” to ensure the ceasefire was maintained and lead to a more durable peace. He said the situation would “probably” be under control by the time Trump visits China in May.
