March employment data shows a strong recovery. Can graduates of 2026 be hired?

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Last year, recent college graduates sought well-paying jobs in remote locations that aligned with their values. This year, they want jobs.

Monster’s 2026 State of Graduates report found that 89% are concerned that AI will replace entry-level jobs (up from 64% last year) and 67% of graduates would accept a lower-paying job if it offered more job security.

“They don’t want to be ‘last in and first to leave’ a new job,” Monster Career expert Vicky Salemi said, adding that young people are noticing a wave of corporate layoffs. “They really want to feel like they can keep their job long term.”

The April 2 Challenger, Gray, and Christmas report may have confirmed some of their concerns. US employers announced 60,620 layoffs in March, a 25% increase from February, with AI implementation being the main reason for a quarter of the layoffs.

Overall, the U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated on April 3, much more than forecasters expected. This was up from February’s loss of 133,000, which has now been revised downward. Part of the recovery is due to the return of some 31,000 striking Kaiser Permanente health care workers to work in March.

The unemployment rate in March fell to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.

Andrew Stettner, senior director of economic security at the National Employment Law Project, said the report is a positive rebound from February but does not change the overall labor market “narrative.”

“Job creation in the economy is slowing, and it’s especially tough for people who have lost their jobs, been laid off like we saw last year, and young people who have graduated from high school or college,” Stettner said. “Even with this increase, we are still losing an average of about 68,000 jobs per month this year, which is not enough to make up for the actual job losses last year.”

How is the job market for new graduates in the US?

The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 22 to 27 in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 5.7%, up from 5.3% in the previous quarter, according to the latest data released by the New York Fed. The underemployment rate for this age group, which measures the number of graduates employed in jobs that typically do not require a university degree, rose to 42.5% in the fourth quarter, the highest level since 2020.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Harvard University students on March 30 that while he is “very aware” of the low employment environment young people face amid low job creation and the rise of artificial intelligence, he feels optimistic about the labor market in the long run.

“The unemployment rate is very low, but that doesn’t help when you’re entering a market like that,” Powell said, advising students to “invest the time to really master how to use these new technologies. That should put you in a good position, but there’s no denying that it’s a difficult time to enter the labor market.”

According to the Monster Report, most of the Class of 2026 remains optimistic about finding a job, with 79% saying they think they will find a job within three months. This is down from the 83% of 2025 graduates who thought they would find opportunities soon after graduation.

What about the overall U.S. job market?

Following a year in which the BLS estimated that U.S. employers added only 181,000 jobs through 2025, Powell said changes in immigration policy have reduced both the demand and supply of workers. Uncertainty surrounding AI adoption and fears of an economic recession may be causing some companies to ramp up hiring, but there are still some bright spots.

Private sector employment rose by 62,000 people in March, with payrolls up 4.5% from the same month last year, according to ADP’s April 1 National Employment Report. Labor Department data showed 202,000 people filed unemployment insurance claims for the week ending March 28, down 9,000 from the previous week.

The Challenger report said hiring plans for March increased 157% to 32,826 people from 12,755 in February. Approximately 21% of prospective hires are summer seasonal jobs. The report also found that private employers have announced plans to hire 6% fewer workers in the first months of 2026 than in the same period in 2025.

“Employers are not retreating in a meaningful way, they are moving more cautiously,” Christine Belmonte, president of technology staffing at Planet Group, told USA TODAY. “Hiring cycles are a little longer, expectations are higher, and there’s a clear focus on hiring people who can provide immediate value. The emphasis has shifted from quantity to quality.”

Is the Iran war affecting the job market?

Soaring oil prices due to the Iran war have pushed up gasoline prices and inflation expectations. Nancy Vanden Houten, chief economist at Oxford Economics, said the conflict has made the U.S. labor market “more fragile, but the effects will take time to materialize.”

James McCann, senior economist at Edward Jones, agreed.

“Rising energy prices and uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict may cause companies to scale back hiring efforts and increase layoffs in the most affected sectors,” McCann wrote in a USA TODAY op-ed, adding that the March numbers are likely too early to confirm the impact. “It would take a significant and prolonged increase in energy prices to cause a serious deterioration in the labor market.”

Which industries are hiring?

The auto industry has so far led the pack in hiring plans for 2026, with plans to hire 12,258 workers, according to a report in Challenger magazine. The entertainment and leisure sector will follow suit, with plans to hire 8,261 people.

Following the end of the Kaiser strike, health care resumed its role as a reliable driver of job growth in March. The BLS estimates that 76,000 jobs were added last month. In March, the construction industry added 26,000 jobs, the transportation and warehousing industry added 21,000 jobs, and the social assistance sector added 14,000 jobs.

The federal government cut another 18,000 jobs in March, with employment in the financial activities sector dropping by 15,000.

Employment in other industries, including manufacturing, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality, was little changed last month, according to the BLS.

This story has been updated to add new information.

Contact Rachel Barber at rbarber@usatoday.com and follow her at X @rachelbarber_

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