Filling out March Madness slots can be a scary task, but don’t worry. The data is on your side. Many people fall into this pattern when trying to build a team that wins the men’s NCAA Tournament. Pick a bunch of favorites, pick a few upsets, and cross your fingers.
No matter how much research you do, the odds of picking all 63 games correctly except for 4 of the play-in games are incredibly high. Perhaps that’s why we give you a million dollars to do it.
Here are some trends based on its 39-year history (1985-2024) since the tournament has grown to 64 teams. Our tips can get you started, but along the way you’ll have to make some assumptions, both informed and uneducated.
Printable 2026 NCAA March Madness Bracket
Here’s another way to look at the traditional NCAA Tournament bracket. The first round consists of four sets of these eight pairs. The 2,496 squares below represent all teams (excluding play-in teams) that competed in the tournament from 1985 to 2024.
1a. The first-round winner of the NCAA Tournament is usually the top seed
Don’t see the graphic? Click here to view it.
If you just choose the highest seeded team throughout the tournament, your odds will improve significantly, especially in the first few rounds. This makes the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds particularly favorable bets in almost all tournaments.
The NCAA has hosted its own online bracket contests during the past 10 tournaments. They found that when players made choices based on “likely outcomes,” they got two-thirds of their choices correct. This method increases the odds of a perfect bracket to 1 in 120.2 billion.
That’s 70 million times better than flipping a coin, but probably not good enough to win among your friends and colleagues.
1b. Upsetting the lowest-seeded team may not be a good idea.
The No. 15 and No. 16 seeded teams have won a total of 13 times from 1985 to 2024, or once every three years. The last time a No. 15 and No. 16 seed won was in 2023, when No. 15 Princeton University and No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson University both clinched the championship, so this year will likely be the year.
Perhaps we’re seeing the beginning of a new trend, or perhaps we can pick all the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds with relative confidence. If you want to get a flyer (which you need to do to win), try some seeds. On average, a 13 seed beats a 4 seed about once per tournament.
Which seeds are performing best in the Round of 32?
Unsurprisingly, over 47% of players seeded 4 or higher make the Sweet 16. What’s surprising is that if the 10th, 11th, and 12th seeds win their first-round games, they have a 40% chance of making the Sweet 16.
3. How many upsets do you need to pick in the NCAA tournament bracket?
The guessing game begins with step 3, where you will probably differentiate your bracket from the others.
According to the NCAA, from 1985 to 2024, there were an average of 8.5 upsets per tournament, or about 13% of all 63 games. However, depending on the year, it is inevitable that the brackets will break. There were a total of 14 upsets in both 2021 and 2022.
The NCAA’s upset numbers do not include 8-9 games. That’s probably the best time to consider flipping a coin and making your choice. That said, the majority of this year’s 8-seed winners could make a case for this, as the 9-seed currently has a six-game lead over the 8-seed.
Upset percentage for the first four rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
The 39-year average is just over eight upsets per year, but upsets are becoming a bit more common. According to the NCAA, lower seeds have won at least 10 games in nine of the past 13 years. There were 10 upsets in 2023 and nine in 2024.
4. Choosing the final four will be even more difficult.
In last year’s tournament, all No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four, but this result is unusual. With the exception of last year and 2019, at least one No. 7 seed or lower has reached the Final Four since 2011.
5. No. 1 seed is still the best choice for tournament champions
The data suggests there shouldn’t be four No. 1 players in the Final Four, but they have amassed more than 20 championships in nearly 40 years, including 10 of the last 12 tournaments. Since 2005, the No. 1 seed has won at least every other year.
NCAA Men’s Tournament Winner
What is the longest time the brackets have remained in perfect condition?
An Ohio State man predicted the entire 2019 Men’s NCAA Tournament to the Sweet 16, setting a record for the longest winning streak of 49 games verified in the March Madness bracket, according to the NCAA. (Starting in 2016, the NCAA began tracking brackets for the men’s and women’s bracket challenge games, as well as major online platforms such as ESPN, CBS, and Yahoo.) Learn more about the perfect March Madness bracket.
Note: This story was originally published in 2024 by Jim Sargent.
