Analysis of President Trump’s 2026 State of the Union Address
USA TODAY’s Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page takes a closer look at President Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address.
President Donald Trump touted the nation’s declining crime rate in a marathon State of the Union address and celebrated the “huge success” of deploying the National Guard to American cities.
President Trump said he inherited a country plagued by a “crime epidemic” when he took office in 2025, but that his administration has since achieved a “turnaround for the better.”
In the United States, violent crime overall has been on the decline since peaking in the 1990s. Violence spiked late in President Trump’s first term when the COVID-19 pandemic began, but began to recede during President Joe Biden’s tenure.
“I’m not sure I fully agree with this framework,” Jeff Asher, co-founder of data analytics firm AH Datalytics, said of Trump’s comments on crime. “And I think a lot of the comments are inaccurate and probably lack the context of what’s actually happening in terms of crime trends in the country beyond 2023.”
Homicide rate is expected to decrease
President Trump said that in 2025, “the murder rate will record the largest decline in recorded history” and “the lowest rate in more than 125 years, since 1900.”
The number of homicides in the 35 largest U.S. cities decreased by 21% from 2024 to 2025, according to a January report from the Council on Criminal Justice.
If future FBI data records a similar decline, the national homicide rate in 2025 would fall to about 4 homicides per 100,000 residents, which would be both the largest single-year decline in homicides and the lowest homicide rate recorded since 1900.
Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Criminal Justice Council, said he cannot confirm whether the murder rate has reached this historic low until the FBI releases the data. Gelb said that while it is “hardly surprising” that President Trump was blamed for the economic downturn, the drivers of this trend “are not easily explained.”
“We’re seeing major changes in criminal justice policies and programs, major advances in crime-fighting technology, and major social, economic, and cultural changes,” all of which may be contributing, Gelb said.
Was the National Guard deployment a “huge success”?
President Trump said he had deployed the National Guard and federal law enforcement “to restore law and order to the most dangerous cities,” with “great successes” in Memphis, Tennessee and New Orleans.
The Memphis Safety Task Force, made up of the National Guard and 12 federal agencies, arrived in the city in late September at the direction of President Trump. The city’s Safer Communities Dashboard shows crime numbers are down since the summer, dropping from 3,640 in July to 1,687 so far in February.
Asher said it could be argued that federal law enforcement presence contributed to the already precipitous decline in Memphis, but “certainly not in New Orleans. 100% no.”
Like many other cities, New Orleans, where Usher is based, is expected to see a decline in crime by 2025. Officials recently celebrated the city’s homicide rate reaching its lowest level in 50 years.
“None of that decline had anything to do with the small National Guard presence in the French Quarter, where there is very little crime,” Asher said.
Is there “almost no crime anymore” in Washington DC?
President Trump also made specific claims about Washington, D.C., where he deployed the National Guard to fight crime in August, saying there is “almost no crime anymore” in the city.
“In fact, crime in Washington is currently at an all-time low, with homicides in Washington, D.C., dropping by nearly 100 percent in January compared to a year ago,” Trump said.
The total number of violent crimes in the area will drop to the lowest level in more than 30 years in 2024, authorities said. According to data released by the Metropolitan Police Department, the number of violent crimes will decrease by about 28% in 2025. As of 2026, 290 violent crimes have occurred.
According to police data, there were 10 murders in the city in January 2025 and two in January 2026, an 80% decrease. Latest data shows murders are down 63% compared to this time last year.
Usher said the department’s website may be exaggerating the decline in violent crime compared to data reported to the FBI, but said the trend is likely occurring. But the cause of this decline is not entirely clear, he says.
“It’s very difficult to parse the impact of federal deployment to D.C. because it’s a city that was already in significant decline,” Asher said.
