Another Outer Banks home collapses into the ocean
Another home was submerged in water on the Outer Banks. Look at the debris after the storm.
Scripps News – WTKR Norfolk
Goodbye La Niña — Hello El Niño?
Large-scale Pacific weather patterns are changing, with La Niña likely to give way to El Niño in the coming months, according to a Feb. 12 forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.
“The La Niña phenomenon continued into January 2026, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) observed in the east-central Pacific Ocean just below the equator,” the Chinese Communist Party said in an online report on February 12.
After La Niña disappears, there may be a short period of so-called “ENSO neutral” conditions, where neither La Niña nor El Niño exists. After that, a full-fledged El Niño is likely to occur by autumn.
“There is a 50-60% chance of El Niño occurring after late summer,” the Climate Prediction Center said.
What is the La Niña phenomenon?The Child?
La Niña is part of a natural climate cycle officially known as El Niño Southern Oscillation, which scientists refer to as ENSO.
This cycle moves back and forth between warm and cold ocean water in areas along the equator of the tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña is characterized by lower than average seawater levels in the region. This is one of the main factors that determines the weather in the United States, especially in late fall, winter, and early spring.
La Niña is the opposite of the better-known El Niño, which occurs when waters in the Pacific Ocean are at least 0.9 degrees warmer than average for three months.
The intermediate stage is known as ENSO-Neutral, where neither La Niña nor El Niño exists.
How has this La Niña effect affected our winter weather here in the United States?
Scientists are still sorting out which forces were most responsible for this winter’s weather patterns, but there is some evidence that La Niña helps regulate temperatures and precipitation.
Meanwhile, as USA TODAY reported earlier in the winter, other forces, such as the polar vortex, may have contributed to the cold weather in parts of the country.
“At this point in early February, it’s still too early to look at the entire winter season, which is traditionally December through February (three-month average),” NOAA Climate Prediction Center physical scientist Michel Rouleau said in a Feb. 11 email to USA TODAY.
“However, over the past 90 days, we have seen drier conditions in the south-central and southeastern United States, and slightly wetter conditions in northern states,” she said. “This pattern is consistent with what would be expected from La Niña.”
“The main exception to the La Niña-like precipitation pattern across the United States is the southwestern United States, which has recently been characterized by wetter conditions.”
Will La Niña continue to dominate the weather in the United States?
“Yes, La Niña continues to shape global and U.S. weather patterns, and its effects are expected to persist through at least the early spring season (February to April 2026),” said Rouleau, who is also CPC’s El Niño/La Niña forecast team leader.
What will the looming El Niño mean for the weather in 2026?
Federal weather scientists are hesitant to issue specific weather forecasts until El Niño actually occurs. As for the probability of El Niño occurring, “The probability of El Niño occurring during the longest period (July-September to September-November 2026) is 50-60%,” Rouleau said in an email. “We are currently in a period of declining model accuracy, known as the spring prediction barrier, and the prediction models we investigated are still showing mixed results.”
“We need to be aware of the possibility of El Niño, but the CPC did not issue an El Niño watch this month because an El Niño watch is only issued if ‘El Niño conditions are favorable within the next six months’ and there is still too much uncertainty within that period,” Rouleau said.
However, other international weather organizations are confident that El Nino will soon occur. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts predicts El Niño will arrive by summer, according to Washington Post meteorologist Ben Knoll. Additionally, the Japan Meteorological Agency announced that there is a 60% chance of an El Niño phenomenon occurring in the summer, according to The Japan Times.
What does the predicted El Niño mean for the 2026 Atlantic and Pacific hurricane season?
This question about the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is “too early to answer,” NOAA National Weather Service public affairs specialist and meteorologist Erica Groh-Say said in an email. “ENSO is one of the biggest drivers of hurricane season, but only when either El Niño (warm season) or La Niña (cool season) is present.”
“If an ENSO neutral exists during the hurricane season, other factors (such as the strength of the West African monsoon and basin-wide wind shear) will have a greater influence,” she said in an email.
Traditionally, however, “El Niño tends to limit tropical storm and hurricane activity in the western Atlantic and Caribbean, while increasing activity in the eastern and central Pacific,” Matt Rosencrans, chief seasonal hurricane forecaster at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said in an email to USA TODAY.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, focusing on weather and climate.
