Tariff dividend checks discussed by President Trump at Cabinet meeting
President Donald Trump discusses tariff dividend checks at Cabinet meeting.
Fox – 5 DC
President Trump has been touting his plan to refund “tariff dividends” to Americans for months. As the new year begins, Americans are wondering whether they should expect a $2,000 check.
In early November, the president again floated the idea of providing $2,000 payments to “middle- and low-income earners” from customs revenue.
“Next year is expected to be the biggest tax refund season in history, and we’ve taken in literally trillions of dollars that we’re going to refund in tariffs,” President Trump said at a Cabinet meeting on Dec. 2. “In addition to debt reduction, we intend to give good dividends to the people.”
But experts say customs revenue likely won’t cover the cost of issuing such checks.
In September, the Treasury Department announced $195 billion in customs-related revenue. The Bipartisan Policy Center estimates that net tariff revenue in 2025 will be $194.9 billion, which would fall short of the estimated $300 billion cost of sending out the checks.
The Tax Foundation estimates that President Trump’s tariffs will raise revenue by $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years, but that drops to $1.6 trillion after foreign retaliation and other negative economic impacts are factored in. The Congressional Budget Office projects that tariff revenues will total $3.3 trillion over 10 years.
Is a $2,000 “tariff dividend” check just around the corner?
As was the case with federal economic impact payments in 2020 and 2021, tariff dividend checks would likely require Congress to pass legislation. These were the last federal stimulus packages the government agreed to and issued to the public.
A bill called the American Worker Rebate Act of 2025 was introduced in July by Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Missouri) and proposed using tariff revenue to issue checks ranging from $600 to $2,400 to American taxpayer families. The matter was referred to the Finance Committee, but no further action was taken.
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett similarly said on CBS News’ “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan” on Dec. 21 that the president “will submit a proposal to Congress” for a 2026 dividend check.
Funding for the checks could come from sources other than tariffs, Hassett said.
“We get taxes, we get tariffs, we get revenue from a lot of places, and Congress decides how to spend those money,” he told Brennan. “That’s diversion. So this has to be diversion money.”
But plans to allocate related funds could be completely blocked if President Trump’s tariffs are struck down by the Supreme Court, and the Supreme Court appeared to question whether President Trump had the authority to impose such tariffs when it heard arguments on November 5.
As of January 2026, no solid plan has been developed to make this check a reality.
Are other stimulus checks coming?
President Trump also said during his February summit in Miami that he would consider a plan to issue $5,000 stimulus checks to taxpayers in the form of a “DOGE dividend.”
He explained that it would capture some of the savings claimed by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and pass them on to taxpayers. But the amount the department actually saved came into question, and then Musk left the administration and DOGE became dysfunctional.
The government has not released any further information or plans regarding DOGE testing.
On Dec. 18, the president announced that he would send $1,776 checks, known as the “Warrior Dividend,” to the nation’s 1.45 million service members before Christmas. The funding was provided by the Pentagon, the Pentagon said.
How to avoid stimulus check scams
As plans for future checks remain unclear, the IRS is warning the public to remain vigilant because stimulus scams are so prevalent.
In July, the IRS issued a warning about fake messages about “tax credits” and “stimulus” checks from scammers pretending to be from the IRS.
“These messages often lead taxpayers to click on fraudulent links claiming to be on IRS websites or other online tools,” the agency said. “The IRS will only send text messages with the taxpayer’s permission, and will only collect a taxpayer’s cell phone number or email address if the taxpayer has registered to receive messages from the agency.”
The IRS also said it will not leave prerecorded urgent or threatening messages. If you receive a suspicious call, message, or email, the IRS suggests the following:
Contributor: Maria Francis, USA TODAY NETWORK
