College football’s Power Four title contenders and Group of Five top contenders
Before the Snap takes a look at who is poised to win the Power Four League and which Group of Five programs could emerge as the frontrunners.
The college football regular season is over.
But is it the season for talking? Conference championship weekend is over and talking season is in full swing.
The biggest question facing the College Football Playoff selection committee on Sunday, Dec. 7 is what to do with No. 10 Alabama (9th CFP), No. 9 Notre Dame (10th CFP) and No. 13 Miami (12th CFP). The Crimson Tide was manhandled 28-7 in the SEC Championship Game, raising questions about whether coach Karen DeBoer’s team deserved to be in the CFP or perhaps be ousted by the 12th-place Hurricanes.
The question facing the committee is whether to punish Alabama for losing in the SEC title game or remove that particular data point because the Crimson Tide was playing in the conference championship while Notre Dame and Miami were inactive. The committee has never selected a team with three losses to be at-large, but it has also set precedent for teams losing in the championship game and still remaining in the CFP (Georgia in 2021, TCU in 2022, SMU in 2024).
Elsewhere, No. 2 Indiana defeated No. 1 Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship to claim the top seed in the CFP. No. 21 Tulane (20th in CFP) was crowned American champion. No. 19 James Madison (25th CFP) did his part by winning the Sun Belt Championship. If Duke wins, will JMU advance to the CFP?
No. 6 Texas Tech (No. 4 CFP) defeated No. 11 BYU (No. 11 CFP) 34-7 in the Big 12 Championship, lifting at least one team out of the CFP bubble jam.
With no more games left to impact the College Football Playoff, here are USA TODAY Sports’ predictions for the final 12 team CFP spots.
CFP ranking, predicted ranking after week 15
* Indicates one of the top five champions in the conference
Craig Mayer, USA TODAY Network
- Indiana *
- Georgia *
- ohio
- Texas Tech University *
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- virgin
- Alabama
- Tulane *
- James Madison*
Indiana defeated Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten title game, clinching the top overall seed in the playoffs, but with the loss, the Buckeyes fell two spots to third place and earned a long-awaited first-round bye. Georgia Tech and Texas Tech — SEC and Big 12 champions, respectively — Rounding out the top four.
However, at the bottom of the top 12, the situation is a little more complicated.
Duke’s victory in the ACC Championship Game moved the ACC out of the playoffs and gave James Madison the automatic berth awarded to the fifth-highest rated conference champion. Alabama’s blowout loss to Georgia was enough to justify the committee taking the Crimson Tide out of the playoffs, but with the committee’s emphasis on getting ahead of No. 9 Notre Dame last week, it’s hard to imagine Alabama being left out. Fair or not, but mostly unfair, I doubt an SEC team with the stature of Alabama will be on the wrong side of the playoff bubble for years.
Alabama would move up one spot, putting it between Notre Dame and Miami, but the teams would not be consecutive in the rankings, giving the committee leeway to override the Hurricanes’ Week 1 win over the Fighting Irish. This puts Notre Dame on the field after starting the season 0-2.
Austin Cartwright, USA TODAY Network
- Indiana *
- Georgia *
- ohio
- Texas Tech University *
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- virgin
- Alabama
- Tulane *
- JMU*
The year is 2025, and Indiana is scheduled to defeat No. 1 Ohio State to become the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. What second-year coach Curt Cignetti has accomplished with the Hoosiers is truly one of the greatest turnarounds in college football history. Meanwhile, Georgia defeated Alabama 28-7 in the SEC Championship, securing the No. 2 spot in the rankings.
There’s a lot of talk about Miami potentially overtaking Alabama for the 12-team spot, but I predict the Crimson Tide will stay in the CFP and fall to 10th place behind Notre Dame. Then James Madison unexpectedly snuck onto the field at number 12, eliminating the ACC from the CFP entirely.
Ethan Kasim, USA TODAY Network
- Indiana *
- ohio
- Georgia *
- Texas Tech University *
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- virgin
- Oklahoma
- Alabama
- Tulane *
- James Madison *
Indiana pulled off the upset in the Big Ten Championship, finishing the season as the only undefeated team and the No. 1 overall seed. Despite the loss, OSU earned the No. 2 seed with a bye. Georgia maintains third place with the win, while Texas Tech also receives a bye. James Madison makes a sneak appearance in Duke’s win over Virginia.
Despite the win over Notre Dame, Miami and the ACC were denied a spot in the playoffs.
Jordan Mendoza, USA TODAY
- Indiana *
- Georgia *
- ohio
- Texas Tech University *
- Oregon
- mississippi
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- virgin
- miami
- Tulane *
- James Madison*
Georgia’s dominance in the SEC Championship Game is enough for the Bulldogs to earn the No. 2 seed and avoid the two top-ranked Big Ten teams. No. 4 through No. 8 are all but set, and thanks to Duke’s ACC title, James Madison will be among the two teams in the Group of Five.
Alabama, Miami and Notre Dame will compete for the two spots, with the Hurricanes and Fighting Irish ultimately competing. It’s a shame because teams shouldn’t be penalized for going to overtime, but the Crimson Tide really hurt their cause. That could ultimately lead to the end of conference title week. No matter how this case develops, there will be debate.
John Luzzi, USA TODAY Network
- Indiana *
- ohio
- Georgia *
- Texas Tech University *
- Oregon
- mississippi
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- virgin
- Alabama
- Tulane *
- James Madison*
The biggest question remaining on the 12-team field after Saturday’s conference championship game is whether Alabama will remain on the field after its lackluster performance in the SEC Championship game, or whether the CFP committee will add Miami to the field to avoid direct negotiations with Notre Dame due to BYU’s loss..
For now, I think the Crimson Tide will remain in the field as the first three-loss team overall (but replaced by the Fighting Irish), based largely on the fact that the committee moved Alabama ahead of Notre Dame last week. This eliminates the need for the committee to explain why a head-to-head tiebreaker between the Fighting Irish and Hurricanes was not used. There’s also something to be said for Alabama’s history of winning four straight against opponents ranked in the top 25 from late September to mid-October.
When will the new CFP rankings be released?
- date: Sunday, December 7th
- time: Noon Eastern Standard Time
The final CFP Top 25 rankings and 12 team positions will be announced at noon ET on Sunday, December 7th.
USA TODAY Network’s Craig Meyer, Ehsan Kassim, Austin Curtright, Jordan Mendoza and John Leuzzi contributed to this article.
