If Republicans can no longer hope to win in ruby-colored districts, they should definitely worry about what this means for next year’s midterm elections.
What to watch for in the Tennessee state election
The results of the Tennessee state election could show how well Republicans can do in the midterm elections.
Republicans lost the special election for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. But it’s still a close call, and it could be a sign that even reliable Republican voters are starting to tire of President Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
Veteran Republican candidate Matt Van Epps defeated Democratic state Rep. Aftin Behn on Dec. 2 in the race to replace Republican state Rep. Mark Greene, who left for a private company earlier this year.
Van Epps’ victory itself isn’t surprising — the gerrymandered district should have been safely red — until you consider how close the race was. Mr. Behn, a progressive Democrat, has been compared to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), but he was within 10 points of Mr. Van Epps when the election was announced, making the race much closer than Mr. Van Epps and Republicans had hoped.
If Republicans can no longer hope to win in ruby-colored districts, they absolutely need to worry about how this will affect the 2026 midterm elections.
Republicans are sweating even in Tennessee’s reddest districts
It has been clear in recent weeks that Republicans are worried about an upset in this election. Trump held multiple phone calls for Van Epps and posted on X supporting the candidate. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) appeared on the campaign trail with Van Epps on the eve of the election.
“The whole world is watching,” Trump told supporters via Johnson’s cell phone on December 1.
The money was another sign that Republicans were sweating. Mr. Behn supported Mr. Van Epps, but most of the more than $6.5 million in outside spending supported the Republican candidate. If the district was as safe as it was painted, they wouldn’t have to do any campaigning.
But they were understandably worried. An Emerson College Poll/The Hill poll showed Mr. Behn trailing Mr. Van Epps within the margin of error, suggesting an upset could occur just days before the election.
Democrats have roped in big-name politicians such as former Vice President Kamala Harris and Al Gore into Mr. Behn’s campaign. And Mr. Behn ran on an affordability platform that appeals to all voters who are feeling the strain of this economy, as well as progressive issues that infuriate the party’s far-left members.
Republicans won in Tennessee, but Democrats won by a landslide.
Ultimately, this defeat does not define the Democratic Party heading into next year’s elections. That doesn’t invalidate the wins in races held a month ago in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia, nor do they mean a blue wave is certain to arrive in 2026.
Rather, it’s a sign that even stalwart Republicans are disappointed with the future of this country. The federal government is in turmoil, the economy is in flux, and the president has spent his time in office pardoning drug traffickers and distracting from his ties to the late convicted Jeffrey Epstein.
Trump clearly has no idea that average Americans are hurting or that either party will win what in the recent elections. On Dec. 2, he told Cabinet members that “the word affordability is a Democratic fraud.” This is ironic, given that both Mr. Behn and Mr. Van Epps campaigned on affordability.
Campaign messages are not the only thing Democrats need to focus on in 2026. Must be timely. Instead of launching an operation at the 11th hour like Vane did, we need to organize our base now for the midterm elections.
This election was still a loss for Democrats, but it wasn’t the disaster it should have been. Republicans should take this as a sign that their actions in Washington are not accepted even in the reddest parts of the country.
Follow USA TODAY columnist Sara Pequeno at X (formerly Twitter: @sara__pequeno)
