Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District was supposed to be Democratic, but progressive state lawmakers are eyeing an upset against their Republican rivals.
What to watch for in the Tennessee state election
The results of the Tennessee state election could show how well Republicans can do in the midterm elections.
- Progressive Tennessee state Rep. Affiton Behn, a Democrat, is running against Matt Van Epps, a military veteran and former Tennessee Department of General Services secretary.
- The Emerson College Poll/The Hill poll had Republican Van Epps leading by just two points, 48% to 46%, within the poll’s margin of error.
- “The whole world is watching,” President Donald Trump told Tennesseans, as Republicans poured millions of dollars into their latest attack ad targeting Bohn.
As Tennessee voters head to the polls on Tuesday for an unusually close special election, Democrats are looking for big wins and Republicans are trying to avoid an upset.
The race to replace retiring Republican Rep. Mark Greene in Tennessee’s 7th District has become a high-profile battle as Democrats benefit from revitalized voter enthusiasm and President Donald Trump’s sluggish poll numbers.
Progressive Tennessee state Rep. Affiton Behn, a Democrat, is running against Matt Van Epps, a military veteran and former Tennessee Department of General Services secretary. Voting ends at 7pm PT.
It signals the possibility of a blue wave in next year’s midterm elections, with Mr. Behn and Mr. Van Epps in a close race in a district that Mr. Trump led by 22 points in 2024. The Emerson College Poll/The Hill poll had Van Epps leading by just two points, 48% to 46%, within the poll’s margin of error.
The district includes parts of Democratic strongholds Nashville and Clarksville, Tennessee, as well as several rural counties with strong conservative leanings.
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Where are the voting results in Tennessee?
According to an Emerson College Poll/The Hill poll released last week, Republican Van Epps has a slight lead over Democrat Van Epps in the race for the solid Red House district.
According to the poll, Mr. Van Epps leads Mr. Behn by just 2 points, 48% to 46%. The findings are within a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.
According to the poll, Mr. Behn and Mr. Van Epps each had a favorable rating of 47% and an unfavorable rating of 41% among voters.
When asked what the most important issue facing Tennessee was, the economy came first at 38%. Housing affordability followed at 15%, followed by healthcare (13%) and threats to democracy (13%).
– Rebecca Morin
President Trump brought up the special election for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District at a Cabinet meeting on December 2nd, singled out Democratic candidate Aftin Behn, and lamented how “competent” the Democratic Party was in conducting its campaign.
“Right now there’s a race going on in Tennessee, and this woman is saying, ‘Affordable, affordable.’ They’re the ones who caused the problem,” Trump said. “The price was too high. We will lower the price.”
President Trump called on his supporters to support Republican candidate Matt Van Epps to prevent a Democratic upset in the 2024 election, where Trump has a 22 percentage point lead. A close battle is expected.
-Joey Garrison
Former Vice President Al Gore made a rare return to the campaign trail with an impassioned appeal to Tennesseans to vote for Democrat Aftin Behn in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District special election.
“I’ve never seen the tide of politics change so quickly and so drastically as in this election,” said Gore, a former senator from Tennessee, as Mr. Behn looks to pull off a major upset in his race against Republican Matt Van Epps in a solidly red district.
“I think the reasons are clear,” Gore said at a virtual rally for Behn on the eve of the Dec. 2 election. “Because while Tennesseans are seeing rising food prices and rising health care costs, Donald Trump is building golden banquet halls and lining his own pockets.”
In an effort to avert disaster, President Trump jumped into the campaign trail urging his supporters to vote for Van Epps.
– Joey Garrison
Following a tighter-than-expected race, MAGA Inc., a major political action committee associated with Trump, has spent more than $1 million backing Van Epps, with millions more coming from PACs tied to the Club for Growth and other conservative groups. The Democratic-backed House Majority PAC canceled a $1 million ad buy in the campaign last week.
In recent weeks, Republicans have gone on a rampage to paint Mr. Behn as a “far-left lunatic” whom they have dubbed “Tennessee’s AOC.” That includes highlighting Behn’s past social media posts questioning whether police should be disbanded, saying the visibility of religion in the state Capitol “makes her uncomfortable” and commenting that “both men and women” can give birth.
“We’re so close to winning this race, which is why these rumors are getting even wilder. So I can’t wait to see what they say next,” Behn said in a recently shot video, referring to some of the recent attacks.
– Joey Garrison
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On the eve of Election Day, Trump told Tennesseans at a Van Epps rally in Franklin, Tennessee, aimed at energizing the Republican base, “the whole world is watching.”
President Trump, via House Speaker Mike Johnson’s cell phone, urged Tennesseans to vote for Republican candidate Van Epps after the president falsely accused Middle Tennesseans of hating Christianity and country music, two staples of the state.
“Tomorrow morning, let’s go out and vote,” President Trump said. “Let’s win by a landslide. The whole world is watching Tennessee right now, and it’s watching your district. The whole world. This is a big vote. It’s going to show something, and it’s going to show that the Republican Party is stronger than ever.”
Mr. Johnson’s presence in Tennessee and Mr. Trump’s campaign efforts (the president has held multiple teletown halls for Mr. Van Epps) are signs that Republicans are taking the race seriously and are aware that it is close.
– Joey Garrison
Even if Mr. Behn doesn’t win the race, which would have been unthinkable just a few weeks ago, a single-digit loss could pose major challenges for Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.
The race follows an off-year election on Nov. 4 in which Democrats won landslide victories in Virginia, New Jersey, New York and California.
The NPR/PBS New Marist poll, conducted Nov. 10-13, asked voters which party they intended to support in the midterm elections and found that Democrats had a wide 14-point lead nationally, 55% to 41%, with Democrats hopeful in reliably red Tennessee. This is the largest Democratic lead in the so-called “popular vote” of public opinion polls since 2017, during President Trump’s first term.
The Democratic Party’s dominance in the year-end elections was widely seen as a repudiation of President Trump and his handling of inflation and the economy. According to a Gallup poll released on November 28, President Trump’s approval rating has since fallen to 36%, the lowest of his second term.
– Joey Garrison
