Flights are being cut at 40 of the nation’s busiest airports to compensate for a shortage of air traffic controllers due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. But it’s not just travelers who are affected by cancellations.
“There will be massive disruption to the national air transportation system,” said Henry Harteveldt, an airline industry analyst and president of Atmosphere Research Group, an independent travel analysis firm. And the effects could last longer than the closure.
With cancellations starting November 7th, here’s what travelers need to know.
Impact on flights: ‘Connecting passengers may be at further risk’
The Department of Transportation and the Federal Aviation Administration have ordered 40 airports to reduce flights by 10%.
“Flight reductions will be phased in in stages,” Harteveldt said. “It will start on Friday with a 4% reduction in flights, and increase from there in stages to 10%.”
United Airlines and Delta Air Lines confirmed they would cancel flights in advance to avoid congestion at the airport that day.
“Airlines need to consider the flow of aircraft and crew when canceling flights. It’s not just canceling one flight; that aircraft and crew are supposed to continue later in the day,” Ahmed Abdelghani, associate dean for research at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University’s David B. O’Malley College of Business, told USA TODAY. “Thus, airlines with more round-trip loop flights in their schedules are in a better position to deal with cancellations. If you cancel both flights in a loop, the aircraft and crew will be placed in a suitable location later. This will avoid stranding the aircraft and crew, which will enable recovery.”
Affected airports include hubs such as Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, Chicago O’Hare International Airport and Los Angeles International Airport, but Shai Gilad, a professor of management practice at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business, said travelers at other airports will also be affected.
“Transit passengers are potentially at even higher risk and are likely to experience higher fares, fewer flights and fewer options,” and their layovers may be significantly longer than usual, he said, noting that airlines may raise prices to make up for lost revenue. Gilad has been an airline pilot for 10 years and his areas of expertise include the aviation industry.
Airlines are trying to minimize the impact on travelers, and Harteveld compared the challenge to dismantling Humpty Dumpty without breaking it into 1,000 pieces.
“Even though the government says they have 36 hours or so to start dismantling their carefully constructed flight schedules, that doesn’t give airlines a lot of time,” he said, noting that in addition to staffing, airlines are juggling gates, maintenance schedules and passenger demand. He said it is fortunate that demand is relatively low at the moment, which means flights have already been reduced compared to the summer. “So many airlines’ flights are often close to full or completely full, leaving airlines with little flexibility.”
How to prepare for Department of Transportation flight reductions during government shutdown
USA TODAY’s Nathan Diller has travel tips to survive DOT’s reduced flights during the government shutdown.
The effects of cuts continue even after closures end.
Airlines could become even less flexible in the coming weeks.
“We have to remember that this is a reduction of up to 10% only based on staffing, but that doesn’t mean other types of delays won’t occur, such as weather or mechanical issues,” Gilad said. “These types of disruptions will continue to occur, and reducing capacity…makes it harder to recover. That could create problems because there are fewer aircraft and fewer employees in the system to recover.”
He and Haldefeldt warned that depending on how long the cuts last, some Thanksgiving travel plans could be upended or at least changed.
“That could mean more traffic on the highways and perhaps other forms of transportation, or it could just mean people not being able to travel at all… and having to opt out of spending time with their families over the holidays,” Gilad said.
If people choose not to travel, there will be a downward impact, not only on airline and airport concessions that will be economically affected, but also on potentially fewer visitors at the destinations they travel to, Hadefeld said.
This situation may be avoided if the shutdown ends early.
“Open up the damn government,” Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy said at a Breitbart News policy event on November 7, blaming Democrats for the ongoing government shutdown. “Vote to open the government.”
However, Hopper analyst Haley Berg said, “This capacity restriction will not be lifted the day the shutdown ends. The condition is that this capacity reduction will not be lifted until air traffic control and the FAA are operating at staffing levels…Even if these employees are paid and furloughed, it may not be lifted immediately.”
Abdelghani agrees: “Even if the government reopens, the recovery will still take time. Capacity cannot absorb everyone, so some passengers will have to be refunded and removed from the system. The severity and duration of this reduction will determine how long the recovery will take.”
(This story has been updated with video and new information.)
