Is your job under threat from AI? Here’s what we know now
USA TODAY’s money reporter Rachel Barber looks at how AI is impacting the U.S. job market.
As the job market cools and companies announce layoffs and hiring cuts related to artificial intelligence, Americans are asking a common but urgent question: “Will automation come to our jobs?”
While limited to routine administrative tasks, AI can now read medical scans, develop software, and take on projects that previously required human intervention. Amazon announced on October 28 that it will cut 14,000 corporate jobs. This is a reference to an announcement earlier this year that the company expected to reduce its workforce as it introduced generative AI and agents that “should change the way we work.”
Leaders at companies like Salesforce have made similar announcements this year. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said policymakers are watching this trend closely.
Powell said on October 29: “A significant number of companies have announced that they’re not going to be hiring as much or are actually cutting jobs, but in most cases they’re talking about AI. We haven’t really seen that in the initial claims data yet. It’s no surprise that we’re not seeing that now. It’s going to take time for AI to be reflected there.”
This is not the first time innovation has reshaped the workforce. More than 100 years ago, the United States transitioned from an agricultural economy to an industrial economy. A similar massive transformation from an industrial economy to a digital economy is happening now, according to Darrell West, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center for Technology Innovation.
Are companies using AI to replace human workers?
While it’s difficult to pinpoint exactly how much layoffs and job losses AI is causing, it’s hard to miss the signs that AI’s impact is growing.
AI is making its presence felt in the U.S. workforce, with Klarna CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski telling CNBC in May that the Swedish fintech company had cut its workforce by 40%, and Ford CEO Jim Farley saying in June that AI would “replace literally half of all white-collar workers in the United States.”
Max Leaming, head of data science and AI solutions at ManpowerGroup, pointed out that one of the first areas to be impacted by AI is software development. That’s not surprising, he said. It might make sense that AI is learning to perform some of the tasks performed by the people it interacts with most.
Leeming focuses on Project Mercury, an internal initiative at OpenAI. Bloomberg was exposed and found to have hired investment bankers to train AI for financial modeling and analysis. This is a task typically performed by early career workers. Leeming said if the plan works and the pattern spreads, it could have broader implications.
“Who will replace these managers? If we don’t hire entry-level people into these technical roles, who will learn those roles to move into management positions at some point in the future? I don’t know the answer to that,” he said.
How many jobs are at risk?
An October study from the Yale Institute for Budget Research found that the broader labor market has not experienced “any measurable disruption” since the release of ChatGPT, noting that broad technological impacts are typically felt over decades rather than months or years.
A recent survey by the New York Fed found that just 1% of service companies reported laying off workers because of AI in the past six months, down from 10% in last year’s survey. However, 13% said they expected layoffs within the next six months.
An August report from Goldman Sachs estimated that 6% to 7% of U.S. workers could lose their jobs if AI is widely adopted.
Earlier this year, a World Economic Forum report estimated that new technologies, along with other economic and demographic trends, will create 170 million jobs by 2030 and replace 92 million others.
Leeming said of past technological revolutions, “Efficiency improvements that drove out workers were temporary.” “If workers are permanently displaced and disenfranchised by AI, this will be the first time in human history.”
Smooth transition not guaranteed
Some experts believe that AI will create enough new roles to replace job losses, but that may depend on how policymakers and employers react now. According to Axios, Walmart CEO Doug McMillion, speaking at a Harvard Business Review event, said that AI will replace workers if they are trained effectively.
“This is a system-wide transformation that will impact a lot of people,” West said. “In the past, when there has been major economic change, there have been programs to help people make the transition and develop the skills they need to qualify for new jobs.”
Daron Acemoglu, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and winner of the 2024 Nobel Prize in economics, said there are generally two paths forward for society when it comes to AI. He predicts that jobs will decline as companies primarily use the technology to automate tasks.
“I don’t foresee a job collapse in the next year or in five years,” Acemoglu said. “But as AI becomes more widespread in the direction of automation, jobs will decline. Some jobs will be created, but not enough.”
But if companies adopt pro-worker AI designed to complement humans and empower workers, he said, the technology could boost real wages alongside retraining and “even limit the scope of inequality.”
Which jobs are most and least at risk from AI?
According to a report by the National Science Association and the Gerald Hough Endowment for Humanity, AI is expected to disrupt about 25% of all jobs over the next three years.
“However, this figure is somewhat misleading, as certain industries and the jobs within them are more likely than others to face significant job losses due to the introduction of automation and AI,” the report says.
The report identified five industries most likely to experience worker turnover because they rely heavily on technology skills. Those departments are: Wholesale business. Retail; Finance and Insurance. Educational services. Real estate, rental and leasing.
We also identified five industries that are least likely to be impacted by AI because they require more human judgment and manual dexterity. It’s about companies and business management. Mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction. Government; agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting. Management and Support Services.
AI can already fill out a spreadsheet, but it can’t have coffee with a friend of a friend or form a business partnership. Leeming said if employees want to bring value to the company, they should rely on humanity and personal relationships.
“People who tend to advance their careers that way have a certain personality type. They tend to be more outgoing,” Leeming says. “But I think that’s the real way to prevent AI from taking your job.”
Contact Rachel Barber rbarber@usatoday.com X Follow her at @rachelbarber_
