Is a 20 year old car too old to buy? How to estimate the lifespan of a car

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Is the model year of a used car just a number?

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  • The deterioration of a car depends more on mileage than on model year.
  • One study demonstrated that some vehicles can last up to 250,000 miles.
  • Drivers can estimate the lifespan of their car by dividing the total number of miles driven before major repairs by the annual mileage.

Buying older used car models can save drivers a lot of money. The question is, how old is too old to be a used car? Are there any specific age restrictions when purchasing a reliable used car model?

There are several factors to consider when looking for an older used model. Surprisingly, when it comes to a car’s lifespan, age isn’t as important as mileage, make/model, and overall reliability.

Is a used car from 20 years ago too old to buy?

Age can affect the lifespan of a vehicle, but it’s not always the best indicator of a vehicle’s potential lifespan. Some older, well-maintained vehicles can be nearly as reliable as newer models, depending on their design.

A 20-year-old car that has driven an average number of miles per year (14,489 according to Kelley Blue Book) may be long past its prime. On the other hand, a well-maintained vehicle that drives fewer than average annual miles may last many years before developing major mechanical problems.

Capital One’s article on vehicle age lists deteriorating rust and major mechanical failure as signs that a vehicle is “too old to drive.” That said, there is no specific vehicle age at which any vehicle becomes obsolete and useless.

Mileage: A true indicator of a car’s age and deterioration

While model year may not be the best indicator of a car’s lifespan, mileage (of original parts) can help car buyers understand the average remaining mileage and age of a car. Research from car research website iSeeCars.com has compiled a list of the 30 cars most likely to last up to 250,000 miles. The study analyzed odometer reading data from more than 402 million vehicles.

According to iSeeCars, the average vehicle only lasts for more than 250,000 miles 8.6% of the time. Therefore, 250,000 miles is (optimistically) a good mileage number to set as the end of a vehicle’s life. Realistically, most vehicles can only go up to 200,000 miles (or less) before developing serious mechanical problems.

Several Toyota models topped iSeeCars’ list of vehicles most likely to reach 250,000 miles or more. Vehicles like the Toyota Tundra pickup truck and Toyota Sequoia SUV are more than 36% likely to reach mileage milestones, which is a much higher percentage than the average vehicle (8.6%).

Models like the Toyota 4Runner SUV and Toyota Tacoma pickup truck have a greater than 26% chance of reaching 250,000 miles or more. The yearly miles a driver accumulates can vary, so vehicle age and mileage are not correlated.

Average lifespan of a car based on mileage

Assuming that the car is driven at the Kelley Blue Book estimated average of 14,489 miles per year and averages about 200,000 miles before a major mechanical problem occurs, the car’s lifespan is conservatively estimated at 13 to 14 years. You can get a more specific estimate for your vehicle by dividing the total mileage of 200,000 by the average annual mileage. Vehicles with above-average reliability, such as the Toyota models that topped iSeeCars’ list, are likely to have an above-average lifespan.

The numbers used to calculate a car’s lifespan are based on mileage, not years of ownership. Therefore, a 20-year-old car with less than 200,000 miles could last for many years, depending on its mileage and reliability. Research from iSeeCars shows that at least six types of vehicles have a greater than 25% chance of reaching 250,000 miles or more, significantly extending their estimated lifespans.

5 Vehicles Most Likely to Drive 250,000 Miles, According to iSeeCars

  • toyota sequoia
  • toyota tundra
  • toyota 4runner
  • toyota tacoma
  • toyota highlander hybrid

No car is too old to buy, but a car with too many miles on it may not be reliable without significant repair costs. After a car has driven 200,000 miles, parts such as the engine and transmission experience extreme wear and tear.

Fortunately for motorists, some cars (such as Toyota models) age faster than others in terms of deterioration. If your car has so many miles that it needs a new engine or transmission, the cost of parts and repairs may not make it worth it.

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